phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Please not yet . too late I figure we are within 12 hours till the start for folks in Alabama and Georgia, so why not get started early for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We could use the "December" thread? It is too late he already made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Already at 30 here, will there be a slight warm-up with cloud cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Already at 30 here, will there be a slight warm-up with cloud cover? Some of the daytime heat that escapes will bounce back once the clouds come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 too late I figure we are within 12 hours till the start for folks in Alabama and Georgia, so why not get started early for them. We may be a lot closer than 12 hours. The forecast calls for rain/snow after 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 too late I figure we are within 12 hours till the start for folks in Alabama and Georgia, so why not get started early for them. Already some echoes showing up in NE Alabama into NW Georgia, sure nothing is reaching the ground, but on radar it does appear that something is popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yea if you notice the energy coming down the west side of the southern wave in the last couple of frames. The energy really forces it neutral and maybe negative. With a surface low in place the negative till will ramp it up...like putting a paddle in a river towards up stream, rather than down stream where the force of the water just slides off. Oh wow, thanks for that. That (Paddle) analogy helps a lot, actually I think I actually get it based on that. So essentially we are still on track for the possibility of a larger storm, according to that statistical model. I'm very interested to see how the 0z models set this feature up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking at the radar, it "appears" that phasing is taking place over Tx? Can a Professional please let us know if that is the case? Thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yup. Just got back from the family. Now time to hunt this mother down. While building stuff for my Boy's 2nd Christmas. 34 here!! Any updated thoughts on the RUC? back from family ish. ready to continue tracking the storm that has risen from the dead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Some of the daytime heat that escapes will bounce back once the clouds come in. Thanks, I will at some point figure it all out. Looks like a long night ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yup. Just got back from the family. Now time to hunt this mother down. While building stuff for my Boy's 2nd Christmas. 37 here!! Any updated thoughts on the RUC? HKY just mentioned on his thread how the RUC has been run after run catching up to the fact that there is more energy with the northern stream shortwave we have been following today. Overall positive signs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 southern s/w stronger at hour 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Current Obs... Came with-in 10F cooler than forcasted temp today by NWS.. We on'y reached 45...Sooo, forcasated with-in, "again" W/ the local AFD, I think, they are forecasting in the 50's, so I'm goin -10 wih the NE/NW kiccking up and going into barely the mid-40's. excatly as today with clouds approaching, clouds comin in from the WEST. So We have current OBS, which never got above 45/46 degrees with full dun, light winds, and ALOT of raditional cooling this evening...I'm thinking in the Lows around in the high 20's with lower temps in Max teens possible in cooling areas...(marshes/swamps etc)... current obs, (we were forcasted @ this time in the 50's), ie never happened.... Just My IMBY Obs, but that's what is happening... PLUS people that don't understand "Nature" the Birds & Squirrel's were going crazy under My live Oaks today.... (there's your sign)... 35.6 °F ClearWindchill:36 °F Humidity:79% Dew Point:30 °F<----hmmm check thatWind: CALM Wind Gust:0.0 mph Pressure: Mets I wish I had a link to sounding's in Local area, besides MHX.... A few Local TV Mets are talking 1~3 inches for our area....(were in ***Winter MODE**) across the viewing area..... LOL... OK, going on the Local KLIM AFD.... Valid 6:30 PM EST.. Near term /through tonight/... as of 2:30 PM Friday...current surface analysis showing weak high pressure aligned northeast from the Panhandle of Florida northward to the Piedmont of North Carolina. This pattern will remain essentially unchanged through the afternoon and overnight hours. The only forecast concern is the timing of cloud cover with the long advertised storm system taking shape in the Mississippi Valley.(I discussed with My persolal Obs). Have trimmed back inherited forecast a bit with broken to overcast skies still expected by Saturday morning. For overnight lows...the mav numbers look to cold and with recent met performance being Superior to the mav...an easy decision to give the nod to the met. Temperature curve may be more challenging however with the increase in cloud cover especially across western areas. (this is in the disco, where I'm seeing cloud cover coming into from thhe west)... && Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... as of 2:30 PM Friday...the models have not been kind to US forecasters today. HPC stated in their model diagnostic discussion (pmdhmd) this afternoon that the 12z GFS and NAM models had numerous initialization errors...and the 00z European model (ecmwf) also had difficulty resolving several disturbances in the flow aloft over southern Canada. Confidence is much below normal for what is now just a 24-48 hour forecast. What is known is this: a significant upper low over Texas will move east along the Gulf Coast Saturday and partially phase with a disturbance currently dropping south through the western Great Lakes. (The degree of this phasing is what the models are having trouble with as it will determine the strength and path the surface low takes through the broad baroclinic zone offshore) surface low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast tonight...will cross Florida Saturday night...then accelerating up the U.S. East Coast Sunday while deepening into a major winter storm. The model consensus over the past couple of days has been for the surface low to track 75-100 miles southeast of chs...and 175-200 miles east of Cape Fear Sunday morning. A zone of middle-level ascent preceding the system should develop precipitation across the central Carolinas on Christmas day. This should bring mainly rain into the I-95 counties late Christmas day...with precipitation spreading down to the coast Christmas night. The atmosphere will steadily cool through the event...with critical temperature/thickness thresholds for snow likely hit during the evening hours for the Lumberton and Bennettsville areas. Snow will mix in with rain as far east as White Lake...Whiteville...Dillon...Marion and Florence after midnight Christmas night. Accumulating snow Christmas night should be limited to Bladen...Robeson...Dillon...Marlboro and Darlington counties... with forecast amounts generally less than 1 inch through daybreak Sunday. Sunday morning...precipitation should still be ongoing especially near the coast while cold air accelerates eastward behind the surface low wrapping up offshore. Snow accumulations after daybreak Sunday could reach 1-2 inches in the Cape Fear counties of southeastern North Carolina including Wilmington. Last night's model guidance and the new 12z models show more substantial wrap-around moisture in the 700-925 mb layer persisting through the day Sunday...indicating a better potential for snow flurries or even snow showers to persist into the afternoon hours. Despite the moisture column growing more shallow with time...cold advection is intense enough to keep the top of the cloud layer at -9c to -12c which is well-correlated with snow Crystal growth. After collaboration with the National Weather Service offices in Raleigh and Newport/Morehead City...no winter storm watches or advisories will be raised just yet due to low overall confidence. Residual moisture should exit the coast Sunday night with clearing skies and very cold air building in on northwest winds. Given the amount of wind expected...low temperatures will not go as low as the 850 mb temperatures (-9c) might suggest...with lows dipping into the lower 20s in most areas. && Hmmm folks... this is NOW a **NOWCAST** Situation..... NO ONE knows what will happen , though the Models out the window! TV mets are forcasting 1/trce to 2" HERE! IN KILM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yup. Just got back from the family. Now time to hunt this mother down. While building stuff for my Boy's 2nd Christmas. 37 here!! Any updated thoughts on the RUC? Sounds like a great night! See my other thread for ruc update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 northern s/w now more consolidated and stronger at 12 hours. southern s/w stronger and almost at neutral tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 northern s/w now more consolidated and stronger at 12 hours. southern s/w stronger and almost at neutral tilt My maps haven't even initialized yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My maps haven't even initialized yet. for 0z? http://www.nco.ncep....uc_500_000m.gif EDIT: 1z has just begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 for 0z? http://www.nco.ncep....uc_500_000m.gif EDIT: 1z has just begun 00z run ended early at 14 hours. I wonder what's up with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 for 0z? http://www.nco.ncep....uc_500_000m.gif EDIT: 1z has just begun Yea on SV...just got to 3 on there. *EDIT* Sorry didn't realize you were looking at RUC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z run ended early at 14 hours. I wonder what's up with that? I just got to 15 on NCEP for 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21z SREF is wetter/stronger than the 15z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z NAM looks a lot better then the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I just got to 15 on NCEP for 00z. Yeah, looks like all of it is out now. Probably just a hiccup with the website. Does it look like it's phasing? I don't have an eye for that kind of thing, so I need someone who actually knows something about meteorology to do that analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WCNC is bolder than other RDU stations. http://www2.nbc17.com/mgmedia/image/308/231/125015/12-24-5pm-snow-accumulation-map/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z NAM looks a lot better then the 18z Probably has initialization errors :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 0Z NAM at 6 hours -- Southern disturbance stronger (closed) and further north (wasn't closed on 18z). Nothern stream positioned about the same but weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 TX short wave/low stronger/farther north at 12 hours, but northern stream a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, looks like all of it is out now. Probably just a hiccup with the website. Does it look like it's phasing? I don't have an eye for that kind of thing, so I need someone who actually knows something about meteorology to do that analysis. Its trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 @15 our low is further north then on 18z...our northern vort is further southwest guess it's just weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Have been out for a while, it seems like the thrill is going down, is their still a problem with model output???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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