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Christmas Storm VI

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Thanks Robert, Jeremy, and non mets for basically dedicating the day to following this storm...while I'm getting things I need to get done, I can check back periodically and know exactly what is going on without checking the runs. A big THANK YOU! I think Robert gets the hard-warking award so far for this storm, always up, always willing to do a PBP.

With that said, the trends do look like they're coming together after the Euro played us...The RUC looks great...although with the GFS model errors it's even more stressful now :\ hopefully we'll get something out of this storm, after all, we just wanted a white Christmas! Merry Christmas eve everyone.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Watch that northern wave sharpen up! NAM is looking good on the 500mb level. I'm more confident that this is going to fully phase and bomb over FL. It's party weenie talk from within but I feel our chances are pretty good (again).

if you can look at like hte last 18 hours of vapor loop, check it out. The flow in the last few frames in North Dakota starts going due south now. Meanwhile, the Texas wave is trudging right along. Its like a horserace now. come on Texas wave LOL. We want it to book it now.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Watch that northern wave sharpen up! NAM is looking good on the 500mb level. I'm more confident that this is going to fully phase and bomb over FL. It's party weenie talk from within but I feel our chances are pretty good (again).

Weenie out man at this point its hard not too. It really looks like the models are starting to look like the euro did back mon and tues maybe it was right all along. Cant imagine this board if there is a 970mb low off Hat crawling NNE tommorrow night into Sunday lol prolly a lot of people getting :banned:

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Latest hpc forecast shows a band of half inch amounts that run through central sc and into east central ga, with a 0.70 max near columbia. It will be interesting indeed to follow what happens there.

...TX EWD TO THE SE ATLC COAST...

INITIALLY POTENT SRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF ADVANCING EWD ACROSS TX

SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED WITH TIME AS THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF CONTS

TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE TOP OF IT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WKNG

LLVL SUPPORT AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AND DRY

AIRMASS OVR THE SRN U.S. SUGGESTS THE BULK OF RNFL WITH THE SYSTEM

SHOULD FALL EARLY IN THE PD INVOF THE NWRN GULF COAST PER MOST

MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER..MOST MODELS SET UP A LOW TO MID LVL MSTR

CONFLUENCE ZONE BTWN THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FM THE CNTRL GULF

STATES PER MODEL MSTR FIELDS ALONG WHICH A BAND OF LGT PCPN IS

EXPECTED. THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THIS AXIS IS SLIGHTLY

DIFFERENT BTWN MODELS WITH THE CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BEING SLIGHTLY

FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FALLING IN BTWN.

FOR NOW OPTED TOWARDS THE ECMWF COMPROMISE.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...EASTERN SEABOARD...

SRN STREAM SHRTWV ADVANCING THRU ERN TX AND TWD THE WRN GULF COAST

DAY 1 WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE NRN GOMEX AS

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM TROF DIGS INTO THE ERN CONUS ON DAY

2 AND 3. SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROGGED BY A MAJORITY OF THE

MDLS TO TRAVERSE THE NRN GOMEX DAY 1 IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A PSN

OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY EARLY SUN. THE SRN STREAM ENERGY

INITIALLY FAVORING THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS THE STRONGER

NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE...AND IT WILL BE THE NRN STREAM

ENERGY THEN CONTROLLING THE DESTINY OF THIS SFC WAVE. THE 12Z

GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO YIELD AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE MID-ATL

AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...WITH THE MDLS AGREEING WELL ON HAVING A

RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...BUT STILL SHOWING

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY IT WILL DEEPEN AND

HOW CLOSE IT MAY APPROACH THE EAST COAST FROM THE MID ATL NWD. THE

GFS HAS TRENDED AGAINST RECENT MODEL CONSENSUS AND DEEPENS THE LOW

MORE QUICKLY AND TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN ITS 06Z

RUN. THE 12Z ECMWF SOLN IS A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A BIT

FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z UKMET/GEM GLOBAL AND THE NAM

ARE ALL MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...IMPLYING A

LIMITED THREAT TO THE ERN SEABOARD. AS NOTED IN THE

PMDHMD...NUMEROUS INITIALIZATION ERRORS WERE NOTED IN THE GFS/NAM

OVER THE N CNTRL U.S. AND S-CNTRL CAN. DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE

FURTHER IN THE 12Z GFS IS THE LACK OF GLOBAL MDL OR ENSEMBLE

SUPPORT FOR ITS SOLN. THEREFORE...WILL STRAY AWAY FROM THIS...IN

FAVOR OF A 12Z ECMWF/06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN COMPROMISE. THIS

SOLN WILL ALLOW FOR A STREAK LGT TO LOCALLY MDT PCPN ACROSS FL AND

ALONG SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATL COASTS LATE SAT INTO SUN.

THEREAFTER...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO WHAT SHOULD BE A WELL-DEFINED

COMMA-HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW

ENGLAND COASTS IN ASSOC WITH THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WRN ATLANTIC

LOW CENTER. HPC QPF CONTINUES TO ALLOW A PORTION OF THIS

COMMA-HEAD TO APPROACH AND IMPACT MUCH OF COASTAL NEW

ENGLAND...AND ESP THE CAPE BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THINK THE

STRONGEST FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT THE SYNOPTIC LVL WILL

REMAIN FOCUSED JUST OFFSHORE...BUT WITH THE AID OF OCEAN EFFECT

MOISTURE TRANSPORT GIVEN A STG AND FAVORABLE LOW LVL NELY FETCH

OVER THE CAPE...SOME HEAVIER PCPN RATES ARE GOING TO BE LIKELY

HERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S....EXPECT THE STG HEIGHT

FALLS AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES TO FAVOR SOME SNOW SHOWER

ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CNTRL

APPALACHIANS. SEE THE LATEST HPC WINTER WX DESK PRODUCTS FOR MORE

INFO CONCERNING THE WINTER WX POTENTIAL.

d13_fill.gif

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xwx

xwx

Posted
Posted

nam 850 low. best snow is usually just NW.

exactly...50 to 30 km to the nw of the 850 center........interesting run on the 18z nam for sure,,,,,,,slowing this system down will help it bring a more western track...........

xwx

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

I hope euro is still on the next run. We have followed it for years and now has all of second guessing it. After yesterday I didn't plan on working and have none of the trucks loaded with salt. The models seem to be coming around in the final hours, hope they do give us some decent snow. Forecast has bumped our amounts up to two inches but nothing more.

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

if you can look at like hte last 18 hours of vapor loop, check it out. The flow in the last few frames in North Dakota starts going due south now. Meanwhile, the Texas wave is trudging right along. Its like a horserace now. come on Texas wave LOL. We want it to book it now.

Here are my thoughts (they sure are not much, but I will

throw it out there...

1.) I agree with Foothills that the EURO solution for th 5-6 runs a couple of days ago will most likely come to fruition.

The question is HOW MUCH will this sucker BOMB?

2.) I think the models are catching up now and are trying to figure out HOW MUCH this thing will phase? This is why we are seeing different solutions.

3.) radar trends are promising.

4.) the most underared thing that we all have not touched on....TEMPS??? need some analysis from Qc or someone there.

Posting from iPhone. Sorry for the cutoff in text earlier.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Here are my thoughts (they sure are not much, but I will throw it out there...

1.) I agree with Foothills that the EURO solution for th 5-6 runs a couple of days ago will most likely come to fruition. The question is HOW MUCH will this sucker BOMB?

2.) I think the models are catching up now and are trying to figure out HOW MUCH th

Whoa now I'm not saying the Euro epic runs are coming true, but the pattern is looking closer to that than out to sea, imo. and it sniffed it first. YOu're right how much is the question, and we don't know , and probably won't til we see radars tomorrow.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

I can't help but wonder if this band of precip depicted by the models to swing through our area might not turn out like what happened last January. I'm refering to band of precip that broke out way before the main storm got here and dropped nearly a foot just south of Asheville. I distinctly remember that the qpf from that band was modeled to only be 1/10th inch or so.

I could be wrong, but this just seems like a similar type scenario.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

northern energy per the latest RUC @13hrs is further west and a bit stronger. PNA ridge much stronger too. Good news here.

RUC is an excellent look at 5H . The TEx wave stays in tact and you can see the last few frames the northern wave begin to tip negative and should fully absorb the LA wave and then the moisture should really kick in for Sotheast.

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

Whoa now I'm not saying the Euro epic runs are coming true, but the pattern is looking closer to that than out to sea, imo. and it sniffed it first. YOu're right how much is the question, and we don't know , and probably won't til we see radars tomorrow.

Sorry Foothills. I did in fact clarify that in my original post, however, it was accidentally deleted. Thanks for clarifying!

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