Christmas Storm VI

[Cold Rain]

Good morning and happy Christmas Eve folks. Looks like the GFS and Euro showed enough to keep our hopes alive for a Christmas miracle. "It's Christmas, Theo. It's the time for miracles.", to quote one of my favorite movies.

I hope this is not the last thread I have to start on this. Let's see some good trends today!

[MotoWeatherman]

12z NAM looks similar to 0z GFS from last night but has the trough just a tad bit east. Thus the lower QPF than last nights 0z GFS.

[Brian]

Like a lot of people have said, it is really going to be a now cast from late tonight through Sunday, hopefully it will be an over performer. It seems like all the rain events a least around my area has always been that way this Fall. When you think it is going to end, it starts to back build again....:snowman:

[Itunis]

FFC has backed off (as they should have) from 1-2" for the metro and 2-4" for the mountains to 1-2" for the mountains and less than .5" for the metro. Very reasonable considering the 6Z models didn't do us any favors.

[DaculaWeather]

It appears that the shortwave up north is trying to get a little turn to it

[Brian]

To me it looks like a huge amount of moisture in TX and once it hits the Gulf it could really take over....You can see a feed from the Gulf already on the radar.

http://http://ww2.ajcmobile.com/wap/weather/radar/animated/?sid=1001&showstorms=10&showids=1&state=TX&city=AUSTIN&r=192.0

[Itunis]

NAM looks OK, it would probably drop half an inch or so for parts of N GA considering temp issues. Obviously the eastern Carolinas get the most QPF.

[HWY316wx]

Daculawx, the placement of the low on your map is dead on for what last nights GFS and EURO showed. It is centered west of Omaha. This is a good thing in my opinion as the NAM had been showing it over Iowa which when it drives south sheers our southern energy.

[Wild Weather Monger]

To me it looks like a huge amount of moisture in TX and once it hits the Gulf it could really take over....You can see a feed from the Gulf already on the radar.

http://ww2.ajcmobile.com/wap/weather/radar/animated/?sid=1001&state=GA&city=Atlanta&d=999&zc=&submit=Save&showstorms=10&showids=1&r=1536.0

This untrained weenie eye has been watching that as well. While still hoping for the Christmas Miricle phase to bury us all, the way things stand as now, I'm pinning my hopes on an over-performing streak of precip overhead as the northern streams ingest that expanding plume to our west.

[DaculaWeather]

I like this view, 50% opacity and extra fast http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_southeast_wide_master.php

It will take a minute to load, it's loading 36 radar sites. Drag the map (after it starts looping) so you can see Texas better.

[bingcrosbyb]

Just took a look at the 12z NAM. Noticed looking at the 06z and 00z models that the northern stream keeps getting pulled to the west, but the vort positioning really hasn't changed. We need our vort to stopped getting sheared to death and undercut the northern piece of energy intact similar to the 00z GFS. Then you will see a phase. If not, the southern piece will just get sheared/destroyed/shredded/packing bags to southern FL.

[packfan98]

Well, I wasn't expecting the nam to give me .25 inches of precip. If it is underdone then this system could be more disruptive than I thought. Folks around here will be surprised if there is more than a dusting to an inch. I have made plans to travel based on the NOSTORM that the models have changed to. .25 versus .08 would translate to a big difference in reality. Either one will be beautiful to see on Christmas. A month ago if you told me it would snow on Christmas I would have cashed my chips in no matter the accumulation you through at me. Flurries are good as long as I can actually see them.

[SBUWX23]

Looking at soundings for RDU, it is too warm at 18z for any snow Saturday afternoon but the profile cools quickly so snow will be supported by 00z Sunday. The issue therafter is saturation is decreasing rapidly as you head into the next several hours and it may switch back over to rain if this were to occur.

[eyewall]

Looking at soundings for RDU, it is too warm at 18z for any snow Saturday afternoon but the profile cools quickly so snow will be supported by 00z Sunday. The issue therafter is saturation is decreasing rapidly as you head into the next several hours and it may switch back over to rain if this were to occur.

Yeah I am worried about p-type issues also. That would be truly awful but it may be reality.

[FoothillsNC]

look what the nam does if you view the 5H loop through the storm on ncep. It kills the southern low pretty quickly once its off Houston, and pretty far south, but if thats not that far south, then theres a good vort coming in Mississipp that could scoop it up and skirt it up the southeast coast, more than shown. I'd think thats still possible, with a lot more moisture than shown. Also, the convection in Texas may alter some things. Grasping at straws probably.

[Shawn]

Yeah I am worried about p-type issues also. That would be truly awful but it may be reality.

RDU is supportive of snow.. just the surface is warm for a while. per the NAM at least.

[wolfpackmet]

Looks like possible severe weather on the southern tip of that wave in Texas. A strip of 500 mucape with 0-6 shear at around 60 knots. Some obs of 60/57

[FLO]

I respect the request for no IMBY posts, but to be fair, there are not METS from SC and everyone on here mentions nothing but NC and N GA 99% of the time. Us weenies from SC that have no clue what we are looking at have no way to know what we are getting. It would be nice if people mentioned SC as well when talking about "The Carolinas". Good job and I love it just saying.

[Shawn]

I respect the request for no IMBY posts, but to be fair, there are not METS from SC and everyone on here mentions nothing but NC and N GA 99% of the time. Us weenies from SC that have no clue what we are looking at have no way to know what we are getting. It would be nice if people mentioned SC as well when talking about "The Carolinas". Good job and I love it just saying.

I've been mentioning CAE for a bit. We will see snow fall most likely. Sticking snow? Probably not unless things change fast. Maybe to some grass or cars.

[FoothillsNC]

I respect the request for no IMBY posts, but to be fair, there are not METS from SC and everyone on here mentions nothing but NC and N GA 99% of the time. Us weenies from SC that have no clue what we are looking at have no way to know what we are getting. It would be nice if people mentioned SC as well when talking about "The Carolinas". Good job and I love it just saying.

when i say the carolinas, I mean both. I'll say eastern NC if thats what I mean.

[SBUWX23]

RDU is supportive of snow.. just the surface is warm for a while. per the NAM at least.

No its really not. There is only a small window per this run when looking at soundings. It drys out considerably where you need saturation for snow growth so just because there is .25 of QPF does not mean its all snow. It could be a lot of mix early, a dusting in between, then light rain or freezing rain at the end.

[NCWeSU]

Looks like possible severe weather on the southern tip of that wave in Texas. A strip of 500 mucape with 0-6 shear at around 60 knots. Some obs of 60/57

I wonder if that line of convection could enhance precip a bit up north via a north to south LLJ... something that I think the models would not pick up on... that is if the convection makes it to the Gulf.

[BIG FROSTY]

JB morning update FWIW-------

In some way this is similar to a late January 2000 storm that shocked many on the east coast ( see my blog from two days before that, if we have it archived) that lead Congress to get mad because a 10 inch storm hit after a forecast for flurries. That too was an error of where the storm was developing in relation to a perfect upper pattern. Folks upper lows moving from Kentucky to Nantucket and deepening dont normally dump no snow in the mid atlantic states.

Just to show you folks in the east.

But He did say there was alot of light snow deep in the south. He useing the JMA Model

We see the large area of snow, mainly light, north of the pinkish line but snow deep into the southland, a major rare event on Christmas day.

[snowlover91]

If I were you guys, I would recommend looking at the RUC and the real time observations to get am idea what will happen. RUC is in my experience superior to all other models once we are within 24 hours of an event. Btw, it looks interesting.

[FoothillsNC]

just looked at the 12Z NAM simulated reflectivity in Texas. Nowhere near close on the progs as in actuality. Not sure if this means anything but latent heat in convection could alter it from what the NAM is predicting anyway. Theres an awful lot of convection thats is erupting way ahead of the nam it looks like.

[bingcrosbyb]

JB morning update FWIW-------

In some way this is similar to a late January 2000 storm that shocked many on the east coast ( see my blog from two days before that, if we have it archived) that lead Congress to get mad because a 10 inch storm hit after a forecast for flurries. That too was an error of where the storm was developing in relation to a perfect upper pattern. Folks upper lows moving from Kentucky to Nantucket and deepening dont normally dump no snow in the mid atlantic states.

Just to show you folks in the east.

But He did say there was alot of light snow deep in the south. He useing the JMA Model

We see the large area of snow, mainly light, north of the pinkish line but snow deep into the southland, a major rare event on Christmas day.

Why would he be using the JMA model? The Japanese don't even use that model.

[snowlover91]

just looked at the 12Z NAM simulated reflectivity in Texas. Nowhere near close on the progs as in actuality. Not sure if this means anything but latent heat in convection could alter it from what the NAM is predicting anyway. Theres an awful lot of convection thats is erupting way ahead of the nam it looks like.

Foothills, I've been noticing that the radar is seeming to match up with the 700mb RH pretty well as depicted by the RUC. The storm looks a lot juicier so far than I was thinning but we will see how long it lasts I guess.

[eyewall]

Why would he be using the JMA model? The Japanese don't even use that model.

He needs to hang on to anything he can to try and save face.

[SBUWX23]

If I were you guys, I would recommend looking at the RUC and the real time observations to get am idea what will happen. RUC is in my experience superior to all other models once we are within 24 hours of an event. Btw, it looks interesting.

The RUC has its moments. Its not always a great model so you need to be very careful.

[DopplerWx]

just looked at the 12Z NAM simulated reflectivity in Texas. Nowhere near close on the progs as in actuality. Not sure if this means anything but latent heat in convection could alter it from what the NAM is predicting anyway. Theres an awful lot of convection thats is erupting way ahead of the nam it looks like.

On the NAM the northern stream was a but further west, almost on top of the s/w, the northern stream just crushed the s/w. The placement is nice, we just need to hope the s/w is stronger than progged.