Weather Will Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Buy Mom a new umbrella for Mother’s Day…actually with the horrible drought out west we should be grateful. WB 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 18 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: Its the same setup we would wish for in winter, instead of the low sprinting off the coast. Not exactly. This sort of a pattern is most likely to occur in Fall or Spring, and while it is a 'blocking' pattern, it is an omega block with a cutoff low that meanders around under an anticyclonic wave break, and it is not the setup we would want to see(or is very likely to occur) during winter. If we did get a high amplitude poleward extending h5 ridge in that position(as is being advertised) during winter, it would be a generally mild pattern with maritime air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Seeing plenty of average to above average temps advertised on the ens means once that closed low gets pushed south and dissipates early next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Seeing plenty of average to above average temps advertised on the ens means once that closed low gets pushed south and dissipates early next week. Thanks for the good news 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Does Sunday look rainy? I know it will be cool, which is fine. But rainy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Does Sunday look rainy? I know it will be cool, which is fine. But rainy? At the moment, it looks dry after dawn, but probably fairly cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: At the moment, it looks dry after dawn, but probably fairly cool. I can deal with cool. Have the family coming to my house, with dogs in tow. Need the dogs to be able to be outside 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 588dm to Toronto. I'm always right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 591dm over Maine on the 12z Euro. Nothing anomalous going on worldwide (pattern-index wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 On 4/26/2022 at 11:33 AM, psuhoffman said: Why are you upsetting yourself in April over something that may or may not happen next year in which you have absolutely no control over? Also, I posted data a few months ago that showed the Nina hate is over blown. Yes Nina’s are worse than the avg. But that’s because modoki ninos skew the mean upward. In the last 40 years Nina’s are actually no worse (and actually slightly better) than any enso phase other than modoki Nino. Truth is only modoki ninos give us a good chance of an above avg snow season. EVERY other year (which is like 90% of them) gives us equally likely chances of a below avg snow season. In summary about 1-2 times a decade we get a modoki Nino and those are almost always big snow years. The other 8-9 years are mostly below avg with every so often one lucky year where some other enso phase year flukes into an above avg snow season. Basically just expect below avg snow every year then be really happy the 2-3 times a decade we get lucky and above avg. Sorry a bit late with the response here. Now, in regards to the Nina hate being overblown: Now from my eyes, the ninas seem like the most frustrating in which to track things? I think of all the futile tracking 2016-17, 2017-18, 2020-21, and 2021-22. Thinkjng the myriad ways the NS got in the way...that happen in neutral or niño? GL lows, NS dominance, (and little to know SS) are fails specific to ninas are they not? Perhaps the Nina hate comes from the way (which is often the same) that we fail as opposed to a statistical coin flip of above or below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Sorry a bit late with the response here. Now, in regards to the Nina hate being overblown: Now from my eyes, the ninas seem like the most frustrating in which to track things? I think of all the futile tracking 2016-17, 2017-18, 2020-21, and 2021-22. Thinkjng the myriad ways the NS got in the way...that happen in neutral or niño? GL lows, NS dominance, (and little to know SS) are fails specific to ninas are they not? Perhaps the Nina hate comes from the way (which is often the same) that we fail as opposed to a statistical coin flip of above or below average. Getting snow around here is hard, regardless of ENSO, and it isn't getting any easier as we move forward. The Holy grail of 2009-10 is super rare, so throw that one out. So, we suck at snow most of the time. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 WB 0Z EURO has rain on Mother’s Day. It actually has rain or showers every day except Monday next week. Get your ark built today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 18 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 588dm to Toronto. I'm always right. Yep. That -PNA from late January on was historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 I predict less than 1" of rain from today through Sunday. GFS already backing off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: I predict less than 1" of rain from today through Sunday. GFS already backing off I'll take the over for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Life Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: I predict less than 1" of rain from today through Sunday. GFS already backing off Hoping that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 7 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO has rain on Mother’s Day. It actually has rain or showers every day except Monday next week. Get your ark built today. Get out of here with that 6" blob over Calvert and Anne Arundel. We better not have yet another rainforest summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 5, 2022 Author Share Posted May 5, 2022 7 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yep. That -PNA from late January on was historic Give me a break, I audibled it would even out after December though. We never broke Weak La Nina status on CPC ONI. ^Historically, there is a very strong narrow range as per ENSO strength and NPH High, this is about as stretched+(N. S. Hemipshere) as you'll may be see. (GW could be +0.3 difference, [-1.3]) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 2 hours ago, IronTy said: Get out of here with that 6" blob over Calvert and Anne Arundel. We better not have yet another rainforest summer. While @EastCoast NPZ has his desert. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 22 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 591dm over Maine on the 12z Euro. Nothing anomalous going on worldwide (pattern-index wise). That's good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 5, 2022 Author Share Posted May 5, 2022 Still have this warm up coming, wonder if we'll see El Nino conditions strengthen 12hr vs 384hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 6, 2022 Author Share Posted May 6, 2022 Let's see what happens here, 2SD +AO for May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 On 4/30/2022 at 3:40 PM, yoda said: Monday's highs 60-65... and then someone ordered the wedge sandwich for next Tuesday on the 12z GFS too kinda looks like cold air damming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 6, 2022 Author Share Posted May 6, 2022 Little to no chance we are below average for July, keep that in mind when models show strong +AO for next 15days+ (will trend slightly more -AO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 WB 0Z EURO now has the rain out of here by Mother’s Day am. In fact, after Saturday, the low is now farther offshore so next week is now looking dry with pleasant temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 16 hours ago, Chris78 said: While @EastCoast NPZ has his desert. Sort of seems like it might not be a washout now. NPZ drought conditions confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 18Z WB 3K NAM: plan indoor Mother’s Day activities even if the steady rain is over, chilly, raw, cloudy day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 WB 5/5 EURO Weeklies through mid June (no big changes in cooler/wet pattern) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 5/5 EURO Weeklies through mid June (no big changes in cooler/wet pattern) Maunder Minimum redux confirmed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 A cool, wet May and June could set the stage for some stifling humidity in July and August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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