MN Transplant Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 5 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: A cool, wet May and June could set the stage for some stifling humidity in July and August. Thanks for that thought! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 7, 2022 Share Posted May 7, 2022 GEFS looks normal to above normal for temps moving towards and beyond mid May, with precip below normal to normal. I will definitely take the over on temps as we move towards early summer. We are the MA after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 8, 2022 Author Share Posted May 8, 2022 1) El Nino kind of pattern shaping up in the N. Pacific starting tomorrow. 2) Land/water gradient difference remains on 500mb anomaly 3) I like the idea of warmer than normal going into the Summer. -PDO is a strong pattern right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 The closed low that will be shunted southward today will meander around off the SE coast and may attempt to pay us another visit next weekend as it interacts with an approaching trough/cold front. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The closed low that will be shunted southward today will meander around off the SE coast and may attempt to pay us another visit next weekend as it interacts with an approaching trough/cold front. Nooooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 Reminds me of a winter long ago where Matt was frustrated with the MJO and said something about it doing laps around the cul-de-sac (aka circle of death). Obviously not doing it justice here, but he’s had some great quotes over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 8, 2022 Share Posted May 8, 2022 4 hours ago, CAPE said: The closed low that will be shunted southward today will meander around off the SE coast and may attempt to pay us another visit next weekend as it interacts with an approaching trough/cold front. Stradivarius here we come. What a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 8, 2022 Author Share Posted May 8, 2022 Well, root for my N. Atlantic SST index (May-Sep)to go deeply negative, we are going into a Weak-Moderate El Nino for the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Latest CPC ENSO update suggests a continuation of Nina with neutral conditions possible as we move through the summer months. A long way out but predictions for Fall and early winter continue to favor colder SSTs. Not looking Nino-ish at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Latest CPC ENSO update suggests a continuation of Nina with neutral conditions possible as we move through the summer months. A long way out but predictions for Fall and early winter continue to favor colder SSTs. Not looking Nino-ish at this juncture. BOOOOOOOOOO....dag nabbit son of a frickle! Man I might not sniff more than advisory snow for another two years, smh Well, at least YOU'LL have another great winter. Otherwise...coastal scrapers, no southern stream, GL lows yanking storms nothwest, being caught in between bands, and overall mentally exhausting tracking...It's like frickin' groundhog day and I'm so tired of it. (I'm sure my posts may feel the same...lol) And yes, I know we'll always struggle any any non- modoki enso, but to keep getting stuck with the enso state that gives us the most trouble out of all of them outright sucks. And while I agree with PSU about the totals for those season, the snowfall numbers don't really tell the whole story: HOW we got there. Ninas are good at ending up with median or even average...but they get there by mainly advisory events. 2 inches here, 2 inches there. There's little "punch" (live 6"+) for places other than the beaches and occasionally the higher elevations when we get to March. Ninas are the only enso state where we can't really get a good track for that kind of thing other than the beaches. At least the other enso states are more of a coin flip and we don't have so much working against us for a decent storm. Ninas remain the most difficult to get anything more than a few inches at a time--no big hits (12+) or even moderate hits (6+) have happened in my yard for well over a decade. I would like to see a chart of how many warning events happened at BWI during ninas vs other enso states. I'll bet the other states have more...lol If I'm wrong about this...why shouldn't I put a ton of weight on what I've seen since 2016? Too small of a sample size? I mean I've tracked 4 and not 5 Ninas and honestly I haven't seen any difference in how they've behaved! I also have a bias...my yard has largely missed the last 7 years, so maybe I'm a bit salty about that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I would like to see a chart of how many warning events happened at BWI during ninas vs other enso states. I'll bet the other states have more...lol If I'm wrong about this...why shouldn't I put a ton of weight on what I've seen since 2016? Too small of a sample size? I mean I've tracked 4 and not 5 Ninas and honestly I haven't seen any difference in how they've behaved! Yes. Your back yard is also not representative of overall patterns. No offense intended... but you can't tell a difference because you aren't looking at the right things. How much snow a little postage stamp of land south of Baltimore has gotten the past few winters is not a useful datapoint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 On 5/8/2022 at 5:10 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Well, root for my N. Atlantic SST index (May-Sep)to go deeply negative, we are going into a Weak-Moderate El Nino for the Winter. 19 hours ago, CAPE said: Latest CPC ENSO update suggests a continuation of Nina with neutral conditions possible as we move through the summer months. A long way out but predictions for Fall and early winter continue to favor colder SSTs. Not looking Nino-ish at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 Ridiculous El Nino STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 WB 18Z GFS….Memorial Day Gulf of Mexico hurricane…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Still there with the 12Z. Hurricane season starts in May now (not sure whether to put a period or question mark there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 WB 0Z EURO. First stretch of 90 degree weather on tap for next weekend. (Friday-Sunday next week). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO. First stretch of 90 degree weather on tap for next weekend. (Friday-Sunday next week). Only 6 more weeks until we start to lose daylight. Getting there, fall is just around the corner. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 10 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO. First stretch of 90 degree weather on tap for next weekend. (Friday-Sunday next week). Bring the heat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Bring the heat Mid May to mid September, as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 15, 2022 Author Share Posted May 15, 2022 Nah.., we are using Los Angeles ridge only/primarily.. -WPO and kind of +PNA pattern around that time should keep it down, but like I said we are busting the Hadley cell High pressure right now so it might be 90+ anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 12 hours ago, CAPE said: Mid May to mid September, as always. Yup. Every year people act all surprised lol. It's the only weather we do well around here with. Of course it's going to be 90+ in mid May. It's MD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 Quote Of course it's going to be 90+ in mid May that's not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 On 5/14/2022 at 7:39 AM, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO. First stretch of 90 degree weather on tap for next weekend. (Friday-Sunday next week). well i don't normally root for 90 degree weather, but i'll take it over 50/cloudy/breezy (i'm over that) or even 60 and sunny. i'd lock in upper 70s to low 80s if i could. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 WB 12Z GFS and EURO…tropical system or not for Memorial Day weekend??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 GFS is nuts. There's no way that's happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Didn’t gfs do well last year with the tropics? Honestly don’t follow it much but thought I remember seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 GFS trying to replay the May 5-6-7 scenario with a low cutting off and spinning for days over the mid atlantic coast. I hope this is wrong but it's been a popular solution this month. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022052006&fh=228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 How’s the hurricane looking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 No hurricane…. But another cool, wet work week on tap. WB 12Z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 22, 2022 Share Posted May 22, 2022 Cooler for the first part of the week, courtesy of a surface high moving across to our north, turning the flow from the E-NE. It will warm up quite a bit beyond Wed, and as far as wet, other than some scattered/isolated showers mostly in the southern parts of the region, any significant rain potential comes with the next frontal passage on Friday. A mischaracterization to claim we are going to have a wet week upcoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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