Powerball Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Just a few thoughts regarding tomorrow… Models have trended south with the warm front. It was central Kansas a few days ago, to southern Kansas earlier today. Now 00z CAMs place the warm front across northern Oklahoma between 21-00z. There’s strong model agreement that semi discrete storms or a cluster develop near the triple point and ride the warm front, now expected to be draped WNW to ESE across northern to east-central Oklahoma. My concern is that early day convection could possibly keep the effective warm front even farther south, possibly close to OKC. It probably won’t be quite that far south, but effects from morning convection, including outflow boundaries/intersections with the warm front will need to be watched. Down the dryline, most guidance does not convect. Point forecast soundings from the HRRR between OKC and Lawton seem to suggest CI is unlikely, given lower quality boundary layer moisture, as opposed to the 3km NAM. The latter shows a more volatile environment right down to the Red River, but this could be overdone, similar to how Friday was modeled. The most realistic scenario is in between. Bottom line, tomorrow looks similar to this past Friday, only shifted about 150 miles south. The significant severe threat could be pushed close to OKC, especially if early day convection keeps the warm front suppressed. Betting odds favor north-central OK at this point, with dryline initiation near/south of I-40 leaning toward unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Tor warning for southern Parker and Hood counties in TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Tons of lightening from that cell in southern Dallas county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 MOD risk upgrade in the latest SPC update for NC and NE OK. Probabilities have increased as well, especially on the wind side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Several hourly HRRR runs along with 00Z HRW-ARW and NSSL-ARW suggest classic intense supercell to bow echo evolution will occur from north-central to northeast OK. This lends confidence in amplifying severe threat probabilities. Significant tornadoes and very large hail will be most likely in the early supercell stage, with the latter transitioning to a significant damaging wind threat in a bowing QLCS towards the Ozark Plateau.Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 I'll be driving out toward Enid from Tulsa here in about an hour and a half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOkie_124 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 I'll be watching the sky today from my house west of Enid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Pretty much every model has cells in NC OK around 20z-00z. Pretty easy chase day if that pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Watch just issued for most of OK east of the panhandle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Watch just issued for most of OK east of the panhandle. 2 parts: 1) Kind of surprised it wasn't PDS tagged given probabilities 2) Apple size? Was hoping for something more outlandish, like DVDs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Calderon said: 2 parts: 1) Kind of surprised it wasn't PDS tagged given probabilities 2) Apple size? Was hoping for something more outlandish, like DVDs Everything purple except severe wind. Pretty dangerous if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 90/70 Probs for the watch. Pretty close to a PDS watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Wow, several strong tornadoes likely is quite ominous. I will say as someone who lives in South Carolina but grew up in the Detroit/Toledo area, it's amazing to see how stark the difference has been in weather between the Sun Belt and Northern US this season. Until the CONUS levels out a bit temperature wise I think we're going to have a rocky road to June. Overall I have to say I'm super impressed at how many setups have had terrific ingredients this year for intense/violent tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 2 parts: 1) Kind of surprised it wasn't PDS tagged given probabilities 2) Apple size? Was hoping for something more outlandish, like DVDsI had this same thought. We used to get PDS watches virtually every moderate risk day, but that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Seems odd not to have gone with PDS language given the high-end environment in place. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 I believe a PDS watch is issued for 80% and up, but I’m guessing they didn’t go that high because of the potential for these storms to merge upscale somewhat quickly. I bet they’d have gone PDS if it looked like this were going to stay discrete for longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 already looking a lot like a possible tornado producer near Bucklin, Kansas (radar from 1959z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 How on Earth is that Bucklin cell not tor warned? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 It should be a surface-based updraft. Perhaps a brief moment when I believed the CC (correlation) looked low, as if a debris signature. But I don't know if the debris signature ever happened, or I suppose, nobody ever reported a tornado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: It should be a surface-based updraft. Perhaps a brief moment when I believed the CC (correlation) looked low, as if a debris signature. But I don't know if the debris signature ever happened, or I suppose, nobody ever reported a tornado. Seems like DDC is so much more picky than any other NWS office. Reminds me of their "no." controversy from Twitter a few years ago as well. Maybe worried about the panic a false alarm would draw given the proximity to folks near Greensburg so decided to be super diligent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Boy that cold front sure is racing into western Ok. Methinks this undercuts and goes linear fast. Environment too ripe and storms popping up too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Misstertwister said: Boy that cold front sure is racing into western Ok. Methinks this undercuts and goes linear fast. Environment too ripe and storms popping up too quickly. Or it will just happen further SE. Cells are breaking out ahead of the line already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 2, 2022 Author Share Posted May 2, 2022 56 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Wow, several strong tornadoes likely is quite ominous. I will say as someone who lives in South Carolina but grew up in the Detroit/Toledo area, it's amazing to see how stark the difference has been in weather between the Sun Belt and Northern US this season. Until the CONUS levels out a bit temperature wise I think we're going to have a rocky road to June. Overall I have to say I'm super impressed at how many setups have had terrific ingredients this year for intense/violent tornadoes The equillibrium is kind of balancing out right now for the Plains, which has been fairly quiet region-wide the past several years. I'm more interested to see when the tide will turn for DFW specifically. It still continues to luck out so far with near-misses from the widespread/intense severe weather events we've seen (aside from some modest hail storms), ever since the June 2019 Derecho and then the October 2019 tornado in Dallas. I imagine the Metroplex's luck will also run out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 Storms by Alva seem to all being showing the curvature such that they might be supercells. I would suppose they could compete quite a bit. Still kind of awesome to see every single storm looking like a kidney bean. I would think one or more storms will produce a tornado in that group. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Powerball said: The equillibrium is kind of balancing out right now for the Plains, which has been fairly quiet region-wide the past several years. I'm more interested to see when the tide will turn for DFW specifically. It still continues to luck out so far with near-misses from the widespread/intense severe weather events we've seen (aside from some modest hail storms), ever since the June 2019 Derecho and then the October 2019 tornado in Dallas. I imagine the Metroplex's luck will also run out eventually. DFW did have an EF4 plow through it in Dec of 2015. Those types of events don't happen very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, Chinook said: Storms by Alva seem to all being showing the curvature such that they might be supercells. I would suppose they could compete quite a bit. Still kind of awesome to see every single storm looking like a kidney bean. I would think one or more storms will produce a tornado in that group. I’ve noticed significantly more SRH is to the east of these storms. If they don’t line up too soon, could see tornadoes shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 maybe distinguishable funnel cloud near Watonga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: maybe distinguishable funnel cloud near Watonga Jennifer McMahan has a visual on livestormchasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 helicopter view of tornado from Oklahoma City - News 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now