Central/Southern Plains Severe Weather Palooza (4/29 - 05/05)

[Chinook]

yeah, watonga, Loyal, real brief tornado, as they said on the air at maybe 4:15 central time

 

[cheese007]

Back on the ground

[Chinook]

the helicopter crew caught another brief tornado on the ground at 4:26, but then it was kind of gone

[Torchageddon]

13 minutes ago, Chinook said:

yeah, watonga, Loyal, real brief tornado, as they said on the air at maybe 4:15 central time

 

Weird, just before I saw this that scene is exactly what I'd imagined it'd be - like a few other OK tor days.

[Chinook]

I haven't had a whole lot of reasons to watch the Oklahoma City TV stations since May 2013, when of course the helicopter crew caught the developing Moore tornado. And I think there was something on the May 30th or 31st in that same year.

[mob1]

Starting to see embedded rotation in the line. It's a bit early but I wouldn't be surprised if QLCS tornadoes rule the day yet again. 

 

Edit; that storm is now tornado warned 

[Chinook]

I think the rear flank winds kind of busted out there and started up the spin next to Enid.

[Torchageddon]

8 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I haven't had a whole lot of reasons to watch the Oklahoma City TV stations since May 2013, when of course the helicopter crew caught the developing Moore tornado. And I think there was something on the May 30th or 31st in that same year.

I recall it being after 2013, likely 2015. It was some gorgeous heli shots (from stated media) of weak tornadoes with sun-rays lighting parts of the landscape.

[Chinook]

Enid, max wind of 55 kt from the northwest with rain. wind must have shifted from the southeast. Just think if you had to walk to your car.

Quote

METAR: KEND 022142Z AUTO 30039G55KT 3SM +TSRA SQ FEW007 BKN025 OVC046 22/19 A2947 RMK AO2 WSHFT 41 VIS 2 1/2 RWY17R VIS 2 1/4 RWY35L DZB23E25RAB25 TSB25 CIG 024 RWY35C SLP973

 

[CheeselandSkies]

42 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I haven't had a whole lot of reasons to watch the Oklahoma City TV stations since May 2013, when of course the helicopter crew caught the developing Moore tornado. And I think there was something on the May 30th or 31st in that same year.

May 31, El Reno tornado killed Tim Samaras & crew and became the widest tornado (officially) on record.

[mob1]

All the way in far eastern OK

[Chinook]

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

All the way in far eastern OK

that was a roughly 1 mile wide CC drop for the debris, so, obviously pretty notable damage and debris in the air.

[Chinook]

new tornado warning with maybe a couple areas of rotation

 

[nwohweather]

Man that cell SW of OKC bears some serious watching. Absolutely ripe environment with instability & shear, plus LCL's lower once it gets to around I-35. If that mesocyclone can fully ramp up now...

[mob1]

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Man that cell SW of OKC bears some serious watching. Absolutely ripe environment with instability & shear, plus LCL's lower once it gets to around I-35. If that mesocyclone can fully ramp up now...

It might be overtaken by the line relatively soon

[nwohweather]

58 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It might be overtaken by the line relatively soon

Yeah looks like the inflow was undercut. They lucked out for sure 

[Chinook]

There are two non-confirmed tornado warnings near Tulsa. I think the southern storm has broad rotation that may be evolving into a higher coverage of wind or possibly a higher coverage of hail in the metro. There is some possibility of a new tornado developing out of it.

[Chinook]

new tornado warning a long way southeast of Oklahoma City. confirmed tornado at 7:54 central time mentioned in the warning.

 

edit: debris field was 1 mile wide at an area a couple of miles west southwest of Seminole. 

 

[Quincy]

I couldn’t leave OKC until 4:30ish, so I took my chances with the supercell SW of the city. Neat structure and several photo opportunities:

I may post a few more pictures after I can upload from the actual camera. 

[cheese007]

38 minutes ago, Chinook said:

new tornado warning a long way southeast of Oklahoma City. confirmed tornado at 7:54 central time mentioned in the warning.

 

edit: debris field was 1 mile wide at an area a couple of miles west southwest of Seminole. 

 

Feels like a theme since the mid-2010s where the main action occurs outside the area of highest risk

[weatherextreme]

The severe thunderstorm watch probs for wind/hail

 

 

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

 

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (60%)

[Quincy]

Chased a supercell for almost two hours from SW of OKC to east of Norman. 

The sunset tonight back home in Moore really topped off a successful local storm chase. 

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Feels like a theme since the mid-2010s where the main action occurs outside the area of highest risk

Maybe the convection allowing models are making things worse.

[Quincy]

Today looks like a quieter day, but Texas could see a few isolated severe storms. Some CAMs show a supercell or two trying to form in East Texas, although deep layer shear looks marginal.

Another area of focus would be the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country area. Isolated supercells seem likely over in Mexico, but a storm or two could form over or move onto the Texas side. 

Tomorrow could be much more active, although the effects of early day convection complicate the forecast. I’d tend to think that areas near and north of I-40 will probably be overturned and miss out on the strongest storms. There seems to be more confidence for isolated/scattered supercells in west/northwest Texas. Oklahoma is a wild card, but storm mode will probably be more messy, rather than discrete, in these parts. 

[StormChazer]

I started out in Enid, and blasted south to catch this supercell in Dover, OK before it was absorbed into the line.

Then went south to the storm SW of OKC. Follow it from Blanchard to Purcell before giving up on it and going back home to Tulsa.

I guess if I stayed with it another 45 min I could have caught the Seminole tornado, but hindsight is 20/20.

[Quincy]

The two major 18z CAMs show very different convective evolutions tomorrow:

3km NAM shows a morning MCS that effectively overturns the environment from much of northwest Texas into southwestern Oklahoma. Isolated cells by the dryline (near I-27) struggle to mature and blobby convection affects parts of North Texas into southern Oklahoma.

HRRR shows minimal early day convection, resulting in a cluster of intense supercells forming off the dryline, near the Caprock, and moving east into southwestern Oklahoma. 

I think in this setup, I’d lead toward the messier convective evolution, but let’s see how trends lean tonight. 

[Derek30]

00z HRRR paints an ominous scenario tomorrow with numerous discrete supercells prior to upscale growth into a large bow.

3km NAM, on the other hand, has a lot of early convection in the risk area which muddies things.

[Quincy]

This setup reminds me a bit of 5/16/15 (Tipton/Elmer tornado). I remember that was a grungy HP setup. I started chasing in the Texas panhandle and then bailed east just in time for Tipton. I recall that the northern threat area (N of I-40) was convectively overturned and mostly a bust. There were nocturnal tornadoes into northeastern Oklahoma, which could happen again.

Interestingly, CIPS analog data pegs 5/19/15 as the top analog, but 5/16/15 seems to fit the pattern a bit better. 5/16 has some differences, so I’m not saying that it’s a perfect match synoptically.

HRRR seems to be on the higher end of the ceiling here. ARW also goes kinda bonkers with discrete/semi-discrete cells over a broad swath of the southern Plains. 3km NAM blows an MCS through NW Texas/southern OK in the morning, chewing away at most of the threat area. As a result, the NAM is on the lower end of the spectrum. 

Still a complicated setup, but I’d think that areas west (dryline) and south (tail end Charlie near FST?) have the greatest potential for at least semi-discrete storms. Oklahoma is a wildcard, but it could be more of a late show there. North Texas might even get in on the action, if early convection isn’t too disruptive. 

[Chinook]

This is the Hi-Res FV3 model at 21z, along with dew points. It has discrete storms in the Texas Panhandle, a much larger cluster with perhaps cooler surface temps in Oklahoma, and about 4 storms surrounding San Angelo. It is kind of hard to say which storms may develop with the greatest significant tornado parameter. The HREF average significant tornado parameter, best values are all surrounding the Red River.

 

[Quincy]

Pretty classic localized outbreak setup unfolding, around the SE Texas panhandle/far NW Texas vicinity.

Morning radar and water vapor imagery suggest little to no airmass disruption will evolve SW of a lifting warm front across NW Texas. High res model consensus shows deep shear vectors (~50 knots) just about perpendicular to the dryline. Point forecast soundings show a reservoir of 8-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, favoring large to very large hail. Low level hodographs enlarge as early as 21z in the SE panhandle, as storms initiate.

As I see it, the three main limiting factors from this being a higher end regional (vs localized) event are:

1. Convective overturning is still possible from western North Texas into SW Oklahoma, where warm air advection showers/storms could still blow up by early afternoon. This would limit how far east the significant tornado threat (associated with discrete/semi-discrete supercells) could extend into Oklahoma.

2. Storm mode near the triple point could get messy as storms interact with the warm front. Clustering and storm interactions might disrupt potential longevity of discrete storm modes.

3. Several models show discrete supercells firing farther south across West Texas ahead of the dryline, but here, hodographs are more straight and elongated, suggesting less of a tornado threat. 

While the epicenter may be near the SE Texas panhandle, look for isolated storms as far south as Southwest Texas, while mixed storm modes with embedded supercells will also be possible across North Texas and much of Oklahoma.