May 2022

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 84°

Tomorrow will be fair and very warm.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.6°; 15-Year: 75.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.2°; 15-Year: 76.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.9°; 15-Year: 78.5°

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tuesday could feature a very impressive temperature drop especially east of the Hudson. Near record highs in the 90s could drop sharply at night. It will all depend on how fast and far west the backdoor makes it before stalling out. It may come down to nowcast time for the higher resolution models. 
 

 

 

 

Hopefully it stays east of this area.  It can hang around in Suffolk County, we don't need or want it here.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully it stays east of this area.  It can hang around in Suffolk County, we don't need or want it here.

Backdoors this time of year usually stall out in Central NJ. That’s what the 12z guidance today is indicating. So we should see a big temperature drop on easterly flow especially here on Long Island. 
 

 

[uncle W]

June 13-15, 1961...NYC sets a record high on 6/13/61 and almost sets a record low the next day...not sure if this event was a back door...

1961-06-13	96	75	85.5	14.1	0	21	0.00	0.0	0
1961-06-14	88	53	70.5	-1.2	0	6	0.52	0.0	0
1961-06-15	66	54	60.0	-12.0	5	0	T	0.0	0

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, uncle W said:

June 13-15, 1961...NYC sets a record high on 6/13/61 and almost sets a record low the next day...not sure if this event was a back door...

1961-06-13	96	75	85.5	14.1	0	21	0.00	0.0	0
1961-06-14	88	53	70.5	-1.2	0	6	0.52	0.0	0
1961-06-15	66	54	60.0	-12.0	5	0	T	0.0	0

I believe Boston holds the US backdoor after 90s record dropping from 91° to 59° in one hour during April 02.

 

[donsutherland1]

With bright sunshine and temperatures in the middle 70s, the New York Botanical Garden is nearing summer form.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Backdoors this time of year usually stall out in Central NJ. That’s what the 12z guidance today is indicating. So we should see a big temperature drop on easterly flow especially here on Long Island. 
 

 

But that would be after the peak heating of the day correct?

I'm not sure why we have been getting so many of these in the last few years, I remember in the 90s these rarely ever happened.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I believe Boston holds the US backdoor after 90s record dropping from 91° to 59° in one hour during April 02.

 

Yes that was the common pattern back in the 90s and early to mid 00s, Boston would get backdoored and we wouldn't.  I fondly remember those summers.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

But that would be after the peak heating of the day correct?

I'm not sure why we have been getting so many of these in the last few years, I remember in the 90s these rarely ever happened.

 

Yeah, it looks like a nighttime backdoor after peak heating. The extension of the subtropical ridge into SE Canada has been giving us frequent backdoors and onshore flow in recent years. Sometimes we see it linking up with the Greenland block. So high pressure over SE Canada is typical in this pattern.

[nycwinter]

late may days don't get any better then today upper 70's dewpoints in low 50's perfect!!

[donsutherland1]

Much warmer air will move into the region for tomorrow and Tuesday before another cold front breaks the short warm spell. Some parts of the region could see their highest temperatures so far on Tuesday. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of next week.

The temperature reached 90° at Galveston, tying the daily record set in 1959. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +27.82 today. That surpassed the daily record of +26.91, which was set in 1994.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.164 today.

On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.256 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.807 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

58 here this AM. Topped out at 74 for a high yesterday, temps expected to be near 90 later today.

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of May are averaging  80degs.(68/93) or +12.

Month to date is  63.2[+0.3].      May should end at  64.3[+1.1].

Reached 72 yesterday.

Today: 83-88, wind w., m. clear, 72 tomorrow AM.

Looks like BN precipitation the next 10 days and that could be mean Ts AN.

Want to bet on an AN Summer around here?         Then you will have to be willing to risk  $3.50 in order to win $1.00:      We'll check back in 94 days.

 

The CFSv2 for the about the first half of the summer is certainly not in agreement with the above:

64*(90%RH) here at 7am.      74* at Noon.          Really the T spent all PM and evening at just 74/75----75* still at 10pm.

[bluewave]

The May minimum temperatures were especially warm from White Plains to Danbury with the persistent onshore flow. Average minimum temperatures at White Plains were the 5th warmest on record for May. While the Danbury record only goes back to 1998, it was the warmest on record for May.

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	55.0	0
2	2018	53.9	0
3	1991	53.8	1
4	1998	53.2	1
-	1965	53.2	0
5	2022	52.8	2
6	2011	52.6	0
7	1985	52.2	2
8	2015	52.1	0
9	1959	51.9	0
10	1964	51.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	53.2	2
2	2012	52.6	0
3	2018	51.4	1
4	2004	50.8	0
5	2015	49.6	0

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 87°

Newark: 91°

Philadelphia: 91°

Tomorrow will likely see the highest temperatures so far this year in parts of the region.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.9°; 15-Year: 75.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.5°; 15-Year: 77.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.2°; 15-Year: 78.7°

[forkyfork]

the 3k nam shows a 30f temperature drop in an hour on long island tomorrow

[Rjay]

[doncat]

Made it to 90° here today after am low of 59°

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a hot day with readings soaring into the 90s in much of the region. However, a backdoor cold front will break the warm spell in parts of the region afterward. As the cold front moves across Long Island, temperatures could plunge by 20°-30° in a matter of hours. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of the week.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.9°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +31.12 today. That broke the daily record of +25.53 from 2014.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.897 today.

On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.390 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.254 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

It reached 85 here this afternoon. Currently 84, DP 61, RH 47%

[dWave]

Made it to 90, 3rd of the month. Not bad for May.

[Stormlover74]

Our high for Wednesday was dropped from the mid 80s to the low 70s

[SACRUS]

5/23

EWR: 91
New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
TEB: 88
TTN: 87
LGM: 86
BLM: 86
ACY: 84
NYC: 84
ISP: 82
JFK: 80

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the 3k nam shows a 30f temperature drop in an hour on long island tomorrow

what time for JFK?  Better not happen here before sunset....

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The May minimum temperatures were especially warm from White Plains to Danbury with the persistent onshore flow. Average minimum temperatures at White Plains were the 5th warmest on record for May. While the Danbury record only goes back to 1998, it was the warmest on record for May.

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2012	55.0	0
2	2018	53.9	0
3	1991	53.8	1
4	1998	53.2	1
-	1965	53.2	0
5	2022	52.8	2
6	2011	52.6	0
7	1985	52.2	2
8	2015	52.1	0
9	1959	51.9	0
10	1964	51.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	53.2	2
2	2012	52.6	0
3	2018	51.4	1
4	2004	50.8	0
5	2015	49.6	0

 

Looks like temperatures dont exist on Long Island

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and hot. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the coastline to the middle 90s in interior sections. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 93°

Newark: 97°

Philadelphia: 97°

Tomorrow be noticeably cooler in much of the region. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.2°; 15-Year: 75.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.8°; 15-Year: 77.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.5°; 15-Year: 79.0°

[bluewave]

This is the first time that JFK made it to 80° at 8am in May.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&month=may&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 91 here.

Current temp 82/DP 68/RH 63%

[dmillz25]

Already up to 83 here

[Rjay]

85