hudsonvalley21 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 3K NAM not that impressed The FV3 is the most active I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 HRRR is showing some nice storms, and 12z RGEM looks pretty active too. Hoping to see a good storm later today. As for tomorrow, it looks as if the best chance of showers/storms is early to mid afternoon. Looking better late day, which is good news for evening cookouts. Great weather sunday and monday. A good holiday weekend overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2022 Author Share Posted May 27, 2022 Unusual amount of amplitude to our blocking and MJO waves heading into early June. So we get a few days in the 90s followed by back door cold fronts with high pressure building into New England. Record SE Canada block for May has been pumping the high pressure over New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland Southern and western New Jersey Southeastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will spread northeastward through the afternoon across southeast Pennsylvania into eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with bowing segments, though a tornado or two may also occur with embedded circulations in the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Allentown PA to 55 miles south southwest of Dover DE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Real warm one today, lot of sunshine today 83 dew 68. Above forecasts which I heard some say was a decent chance of happening. Maybe fuel for stronger storms later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Radar looks good anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 More sun and warmth than I expected today here in the City. Not sure if that means anything regarding the severe potential later on. Got my eyes peeled for a @forkyfork post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Good storm trajectory and more sunshine than I expected so could work out later. Radar looks good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 couple small cells near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Watch expanding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 One line and that’s it? Perhaps Saturday is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Under a warning currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Under a warning currently I'm getting drenched in clark but no wind or anything else to speak of Edit getting lightning and wind now and tremendous rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Extremely heavy downpour .... coming down in buckets. The storm isn't severe though. Maybe some 30mph gusts, and a few rumbles of thunder. Glad the vegetable garden is getting a good watering though. Man is it coming down out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Extremely heavy downpour .... coming down in buckets. The storm isn't severe though. Maybe some 30mph gusts, and a few rumbles of thunder. Glad the vegetable garden is getting a good watering though. Man is it coming down out there. Really bad flooding all over union county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 barely any lightning but i did have a few nice gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 CI mostly southerly wind and fog. Little rain and a few distant rumbles. Red area has been shrinking and is going to my north it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Had some heavy rain, thunder and lignhtning when the storms moved thru around 5pm. Winds were fairly calm. Picked up 0.41" of rain here so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Raining hard here with some gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 T storm here put down 0.56" with some 30 mph gusts....currently 69° after high of 82°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 49 minutes ago, forkyfork said: barely any lightning but i did have a few nice gusts Does Saturday have a chance at being mainly dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Does Saturday have a chance at being mainly dry? not if we get soundings like this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 3 hours ago, Eduardo said: More sun and warmth than I expected today here in the City. Not sure if that means anything regarding the severe potential later on. Got my eyes peeled for a @forkyfork post. was at the beach. these ne moving lines tend to do well for nj/nyc and today was another example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: not if we get soundings like this and PVA like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Three drops, yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Really bad flooding all over union county Not surprised to hear that. Torrential downpour. Picked up about 1 inch of rain in a very short period of time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIWeatherGuy29 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Mostly short duration light rain here in Southwest Nassau. The main storms went north and west of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. Temperatures will reach the middle or upper 70s across the region. Some locations could again approach or reach 80°. Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. Galveston saw the temperature reach 93° today. That broke the daily record of 90°, which was set in 1922. Galveston has now had 6 90° or above days this month. The old May record of 4 days was set in 2011. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +3.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today. On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.185 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.463 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 Downpoured intensely for about 2 minutes then abruptly stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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