May 2022

[nycwinter]

it was in the 50's again last night in the city that is cool for me maybe i should close the windows so i don't have to have the heat on?

[FPizz]

16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it was in the 50's again last night in the city that is cool for me maybe i should close the windows so i don't have to have the heat on?

Ummm yeah.  

48 last night here.  

[forkyfork]

knyc's low was a whole 4 degrees below average. brrr

[rclab]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Martha's  Vineyard 

Good morning Anthony. As frugal children of the early 70’s the best my lost love and I could do was the Poconos. We never lost the precious memory. A lovely photo of you and your love. If the forum still exists you should repost it during the nations tri centennial year as your celebrating your 54th. Stay well, as always ….

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

And as usual it’s probably too cool in much of NYC/N Shore unless there’s a strong onshore flow. We hit low 90s up here last weekend which was above any model I saw and it’s a consistent theme. 

It may be related to the coarse model resolution unable to pick up where the actual sea breeze front is located. The Euro had low 90s near Commack on Saturday. But it missed the 90° at ISP. It will be interesting to see how the model performs when they increase the resolution to around 4km in the coming years. 

One of the features of the raw Euro 2m forecast is that it sometimes limits the 90° temperatures to Monmouth County like it has on Monday. But when the flow is SW, those 90° readings often end up expanding north from EWR to LGA and the North Shore. The mid 90s it forecast for CNJ on Saturday made it up to EWR and Central Queens. The raw ECMWF also has too much of an onshore flow bias at Newark .

The NWS MDL lab used to generate ECMWF MOS. So it corrected the raw 2m and wind direction biases. Similar to the GFS and NAM MOS. I am not sure if they still have that on their AWIPS terminals.

Most model raw 2m temperature forecasts are too cool when there is strong WAA and full sun away from the immediate sea breeze. So we can get a better idea of the high temperature potential from the 850mb temperatures.

The future of all modeling may be machine learning automatically correcting model biases beyond what the current MOS does. So in the meantime, we have to try and adjust the models manually to correct their known biases. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

And as usual it’s probably too cool in much of NYC/N Shore unless there’s a strong onshore flow. We hit low 90s up here last weekend which was above any model I saw and it’s a consistent theme. 

The hottest day will be Tuesday and that day it could be in the mid 90s everywhere.  Most people take the entire week off so it doesn't really matter what day is the hottest.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It may be related to the coarse model resolution unable to pick up where the actual sea breeze front is located. The Euro had low 90s near Commack on Saturday. But it missed the 90° at ISP. It will be interesting to see how the model performs when they increase the resolution to around 4km in the coming years. 

One of the features of the raw Euro 2m forecast is that it sometimes limits the 90° temperatures to Monmouth County like it has on Monday. But when the flow is SW, those 90° readings often end up expanding north from EWR to LGA and the North Shore. The mid 90s it forecast for CNJ on Saturday made it up to EWR and Central Queens. The raw ECMWF also has too much of an onshore flow bias at Newark .

The NWS MDL lab used to generate ECMWF MOS. So it corrected the raw 2m and wind direction biases. Similar to the GFS and NAM MOS. I am not sure if they still have that on their AWIPS terminals.

Most model raw 2m temperature forecasts are too cool when there is strong WAA and full sun away from the immediate sea breeze. So we can get a better idea of the high temperature potential from the 850mb temperatures.

The future of all modeling may be machine learning automatically correcting model biases beyond what the current MOS does. So in the meantime, we have to try and adjust the models manually to correct their known biases. 

It was 90 here near the south shore too.  Regardless the hottest day will be Tuesday when it should be well up into the 90s everywhere.  Take the whole week off, it will be a fun one.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

it was in the 50's again last night in the city that is cool for me maybe i should close the windows so i don't have to have the heat on?

a/c is on today

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks hot next week for a few days then blocking kicks in and we cool for a while. 

sounds like normal weather for late spring

[ILoveWinter]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

a/c is on today

a/c? Highs barely made 70! 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Saturday will be mainly cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. Temperatures will reach the middle or upper 70s across the region.

Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 99% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.2° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +11.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.212 today.

On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.463 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.760 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

a/c? Highs barely made 70! 

stupid humidity. plus lots of sunshine makes it roast here.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Saturday will be mainly cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. Temperatures will reach the middle or upper 70s across the region.

Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 99% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.2° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +11.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.212 today.

On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.463 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.760 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.9° (0.7° above normal).

 

Wow Galveston is going to break its old monthly record by blasting past it!  Didn't Dallas do a similar thing last spring?

 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It was 90 here near the south shore too.  Regardless the hottest day will be Tuesday when it should be well up into the 90s everywhere.  Take the whole week off, it will be a fun one.

 

The highs on Saturday topped out in the low 70s from Long Beach to Fire Island. The 90°s didn’t start until you got to near or just north of the Southern State. Pretty typical for strong sea breeze days.  

Tuesday could be a rare westerly flow heat event for us. So probably the first 90s of the season for JFK. The record high is 92° set back in 1988. 

Models have 850 temperatures around +20c with westerly flow through early afternoon..The timing of the backdoor cold front will be key as to how high into the 90s we make it.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow Galveston is going to break its old monthly record by blasting past it!  Didn't Dallas do a similar thing last spring?

 

This is becoming a more frequent occurrence. Galveston also smashed its December record.

[Stormlover74]

Severe wx tomorrow yay or nay?

Slight risk extended to around I95 but I'm skeptical it'll be a repeat of last Friday 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The highs on Saturday topped out in the low 70s from Long Beach to Fire Island. The 90°s didn’t start until you got to near or just north of the Southern State. Pretty typical for strong sea breeze days.  

Tuesday could be a rare westerly flow heat event for us. So probably the first 90s of the season for JFK. The record high is 92° set back in 1988. 

Models have 850 temperatures in the +20 to +22C range with westerly flow through early afternoon. The timing of the backdoor cold front will be key. The Euro and GEM drop the backdoor through by mid to late afternoon. The winds go from west to easterly in just a few hours. A slower back door passage will probably result in upper 90s with mid 90s if it’s earlier. 

 

 

YES I love it!  Looks like we could get NW winds that day!  A nice dry scorcher!

Well last Saturday JFK hit 87 and we just touched 90 here before the sea breeze came just before 1:30.  The temperatures here matched what was going on at FRG.  Sunday was much cooler.

Long Beach to Fire Island are barrier islands and they get the sea breeze much sooner than, say, Sunrise Highway does.

 

Wait, there's a backdoor coming in late Tuesday?  I thought it was supposed to be close to 90 on Wednesday too?

[nycwinter]

i feel cold tonight even more then last night....

[CIK62]

Ronald Reagan............"There You Go Again":

[Rjay]

Steady light rain falling.  Nothing on radar.  All under the beam. 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Ronald Reagan............"There You Go Again":

temperatures will then
begin to warm up into the 80s to low 90s on Monday and into the
end of the forecast period, with again cooler temperatures over
eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut.

 gfs is five degrees to warm

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wait, there's a backdoor coming in late Tuesday?  I thought it was supposed to be close to 90 on Wednesday too?

Yeah, the backdoor comes through later on Tuesday with cooler SE flow for Long Island on Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  75degs.(65/86) or +8.

Month to date is  62.4[-0.1].         May should at  64.4[+1.2].

Reached 68* here yesterday.

Today: 68-72, wind s. to w., cloudy, TS about 4pm-10pm ( 0.5" to 1"+), 65 tomorrow AM.

62*(99%RH) here at 7am{FOG<0.2mi.}         68* at Noon.    Fog lifted by about 9am.

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

temperatures will then
begin to warm up into the 80s to low 90s on Monday and into the
end of the forecast period, with again cooler temperatures over
eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut.

 gfs is five degrees to warm

Those graphs always are

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. It will turn warmer. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s with a few lower 80s, especially in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 80°

Philadelphia: 81°

Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow. It will turn warmer.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.1°; 15-Year: 74.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.6°; 15-Year: 76.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.3°; 15-Year: 77.9°

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Ronald Reagan............"There You Go Again":

Those charts have issues, not just for NYC (which is often too hot). Galveston is typically shown 3-5 degrees too cool e.g., it shows GLS in the low 80s today when the high will probably be in the vicinity of 88-89.

[Poker2015]

What time do the storms roll in today? 4-5pm? Hoping it holds off until after 7

[Stormlover74]

27 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

What time do the storms roll in today? 4-5pm? Hoping it holds off until after 7

Between 3 and 5

[Brian5671]

3K NAM not that impressed