BucksCO_PA Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: 50 here with drizzle, philly is 74 under full sun.....160 miles or so. I'm 10 miles NE of Philadelphia, high was 63 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 It was 87 and sunny with a breeze when i left the keys. Goddamnit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 2, 2022 Share Posted May 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said: I'm 10 miles NE of Philadelphia, high was 63 degrees. Airport was 74 (which I know is typically warmer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 The next 10 days have no high probability day showing a High T>75. Rain looks normal. LOW off coast on F/S keeps wind East-then N.E. as it drifts away slowly to the south and east? Monday finally sunny? Tuesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 hours ago, BxEngine said: It was 87 and sunny with a breeze when i left the keys. Goddamnit. So go back. That's where I want to end up eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s in much of the region. It will again be warmer in southern New Jersey and southward where the temperature will rise into the 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 72° Much of the week will see temperatures remain generally below normal. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.1°; 15-Year: 68.8° Newark: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 69.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 70.9°; 15-Year: 71.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2022 Author Share Posted May 3, 2022 Strong model signal for the persistent cool easterly flow pattern continuing. High pressure builds to our north with waves of low pressure riding underneath. Next chance of rain for tomorrow. Then a larger cutoff low gets established to our south from Friday into Saturday. The blocking high may get so strong by Sunday that the low eventually gets pushed south. Then a 590 dm + near record ridge builds to our NW next week. Winds should initially be onshore here. So it starts out as one of our famous over the top warm ups which have been very common in recent years. We would need for the high to drift south and turn our winds more SW to have a shot at our first 80s of the month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(48/65) or -4. Reached 59 here yesterday. Today: 58-63, wind e. to s.e., p. cloudy-breaks, 49 by tomorrow AM. Period starting May 12, looked much warmer than just from yesterday's runs. 53*(92%RH) here at 7am. 57* at 9pm. 62* at Noon. 59* at 1pm. 58* at 3pm. 59* at 4pm. 54* at 8pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted May 3, 2022 Share Posted May 3, 2022 11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. Same old crappy weather. Day after day. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 The week will feature additional days with unsettled weather. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain. A few areas could see a thunderstorm. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as had been the case this year. However, the blocking has now come to an end. Following such blocking cases, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The breakdown of blocking increases prospects for a warmer second half of the month and an overall warm monthly outcome. Some of the long-range guidance suggests that a dramatic and sustained shift to a warmer regime could develop after May 10. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +3.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.194 today. On May 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.320 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.565 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 On 5/3/2022 at 6:13 PM, Rmine1 said: 11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. Good evening Rmine1. It would be a record in the New England sub forum if the fine folks there went 10 minutes without posting. As always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Let's see if that complex in PA holds together. Nam is quite wet overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 4 hours ago, Rmine1 said: 11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. Weather is a bore. April-May to even June are very boring around here. Severe weather doesn't heat up till mid June the earliest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Weather is a bore. April-May to even June are very boring around here. Severe weather doesn't heat up till mid June the earliest. We dont get much severe weather here. It's nice to get a snowstorm in early April, that bridges the gap to a more exciting summer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 18 hours ago, bluewave said: Strong model signal for the persistent cool easterly flow pattern continuing. High pressure builds to our north with waves of low pressure riding underneath. Next chance of rain for tomorrow. Then a larger cutoff low gets established to our south from Friday into Saturday. The blocking high may get so strong by Sunday that the low eventually gets pushed south. Then a 590 dm + near record ridge builds to our NW next week. Winds should initially be onshore here. So it starts out as one of our famous over the top warm ups which have been very common in recent years. We would need for the high to drift south and turn our winds more SW to have a shot at our first 80s of the month. any early forecasts for the eclipse, Chris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 18 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(48/65) or -4. Reached 59 here yesterday. Today: 58-63, wind e. to s.e., p. cloudy-breaks, 49 by tomorrow AM. Period starting May 12, looked much warmer than just from yesterday's runs. 53*(92%RH) here at 7am. 57* at 9pm. 62* at Noon. 59* at 1pm. 58* at 3pm. 59* at 4pm. 54* at 8am. well at least the warmth indicates the sky conditions should be good for the eclipse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: We dont get much severe weather here. It's nice to get a snowstorm in early April, that bridges the gap to a more exciting summer here. The EF3 tornado in Mullica Hills NJ last September 1st was mind blowing. It definitely can happen, albeit rare for such a powerful tornado to form here. That thing looked like a Deep South multi vortex wedge; insane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 38 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: The EF3 tornado in Mullica Hills NJ last September 1st was mind blowing. It definitely can happen, albeit rare for such a powerful tornado to form here. That thing looked like a Deep South multi vortex wedge; insane. I've always thought that kind of severe weather is much more common in the fall. Because of tropical weather and also because the waters are much warmer then. November was rowdy too. I have a feeling we might have a similar fall this year with the warm SST and La Nina still present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. It will again be warmer in southern New Jersey and southward where the temperature will rise into the 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 74° Much of the week will see temperatures remain generally below normal. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.4°; 15-Year: 69.1° Newark: 30-Year: 69.3°; 15-Year: 70.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.2°; 15-Year: 71.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(50/66) or -3. Reached 62 here yesterday early, was in mid 50's later. Today: 58-62, drizzle till Noon, cloudy-breaks?, 54 tomorrow AM. HW Warning Next Week At This Time (80's+ on the GFS for 9 days!) Pop Goes the Weasel? or SE Ridge? 53*(92%RH) here at 7am.{was 50 at 3am}. 60* at 1pm, some Fog. 61* at 2pm, sun tried to appear. Sun really came out by 4pm and T went up to 69* at 5pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 13 hours ago, Rmine1 said: 11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts. Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts. Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs. Looks like another week of thisSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, tek1972 said: Looks like another week of this Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk By next week 80s will be making an appearance away from immediate coast 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 .10" overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Pretty impressive heavy rainfall gradient for the cutoff low from Friday into Saturday. This would already have 100 posts of we were talking snow. All the guidance has a different forecast for how far north the heavy rains come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Pretty impressive heavy rainfall gradient for the cutoff low from Friday into Saturday. This would already have 100 posts of we were talking snow. All the guidance has a different forecast for how far north the heavy rains come. In the end it doesn't matter much. It will be a cloudy onshore flow.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, tek1972 said: In the end it doesn't matter much. It will be a cloudy onshore flow. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Great pattern for the surfers with easterly gales and 10 foot + swells from Saturday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 What a trainwreck of a 2 weeks, my god. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: What a trainwreck of a 2 weeks, my god. Yea agree though at least last week was dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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