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May 2022


bluewave
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This month is on track to finish as one of the most persistent onshore flow Mays. High pressure has been dominating in New England all month. The warm up this weekend favored areas away from immediate sea breeze for the highest temperatures.

This week will feature a return of high pressure to our north and easterly flow. Next surge of warmth looks to be on track for around Memorial Day. It could be an over the top warm up with higher temperatures in New England. But small details like that are tough to work out too far in advance. 

Models have a round of blocking in early June. So the next warm up at the end of May will get pushback from high pressure to our north again. Similar to what we have been experiencing recently. 
 

May pressure pattern
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Forecasts into early June

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At 6 pm, a line of thunderstorms stretched from near Washington, DC to Reading. That line was pushing eastward. North of there, there were scattered thunderstorms. As a result, parts of the region could see an evening thunderstorm as the cold front moves across the region.

Behind the cold front, a much cooler air mass will overspread the region. During the middle of next week, high temperatures could struggle just to reach 70° in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +9.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.751 today.

On May 20 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.321 (RMM). The May 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.304 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

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TEWR base reflectivity depicting two outflow boundaries bisecting, with new development initiating. Will be interesting to see how this interaction evolves. HIRES models have not depicted any organized severe weather in the immediate metro area through most model runs today. Would not be surprised if this comes through mostly with gusty winds and scattered downpours, however.

Nonetheless, may make for some interesting cloud structures with sunset approaching. 

RadarOmega_screenshot_2022_05_22_22_48_45.png

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The immediate southerly portion of storms has collapsed during the last hour.       You have to go to Washington DC for the good stuff.         Some rain within 30 mins.----for 30 mins.---- is all I think I am going to get:

1653263880-GVdr227o2x8.png

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36 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I probably won’t see any storms today, but I did get this nice shot of the sunset and horrible gas prices

75F61428-8B9E-4E62-BEDC-2BADF740F377.jpeg

Could see that lighting from that storm on the north shore here in freeport

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