forkyfork Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 when was our last may heat advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wish I was in Denver Good morning Anthony and congratulations. “Per cent’ anni”. As always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah the slight chance is not too far away The forecasts soundings for Eastern PA would support tornadoes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: The forecasts soundings for Eastern PA would support tornadoes later. We’ll have to see how close to our local area the MCS tracks. The NAM is more north while the HRRR is south. Looks like the SPC split the difference. Don't MCS then to move more easterly or even south easterly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: The forecasts soundings for Eastern PA would support tornadoes later. We’ll have to see how close to our local area the MCS tracks. The NAM is more north while the HRRR is south. Looks like the SPC split the difference. WRF is split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 the hrrr advects elevated cape into the western metro just in time for the mcs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 I am currently in eastern Pa. and it is overcast and 66 degrees. Could get interesting later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The forecasts soundings for Eastern PA would support tornadoes later. We’ll have to see how close to our local area the MCS tracks. The NAM is more north while the HRRR is south. Looks like the SPC split the difference. i've noticed the nam having a bias of showing mcs activity too far north of the cape gradient. i wonder if that's related to its west bias with coastal low capture scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Severe t-storm warnings with the MCS in south central PA. Still looks quite healthy on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Tornado watch for central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Weird day. Supposed to 80. Still 67 and cloudy. We'll have a brief window of sun and warmth before clouds return 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 the box actually includes the western metro but okx decided to keep us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the box actually includes the western metro but okx decided to keep us out Do we break the clouds in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: Do we break the clouds in time? anything we get will be elevated so that doesn't really matter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Where is the sun Where is summer Mets and models busting all week Models have been gross in mid range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the box actually includes the western metro but okx decided to keep us out Well that escalated quickly. TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 TORNADO WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC005-007-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-202300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0251.220520T1535Z-220520T2300Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLINGTON CAMDEN GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 49 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i've noticed the nam having a bias of showing mcs activity too far north of the cape gradient. i wonder if that's related to its west bias with coastal low capture scenarios The RGEM looks more realistic into the same areas that have the tornado watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 The severe indices being forecasted for later in PA are actually quite impressive by this region's standards. 3000 CAPE, -9 LI and EHI 6+ in some places. Lapse rates less noteworthy but still decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah the slight chance is not too far away Upgraded to Enhanced for eastern PA/western NJ now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 41 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Where is the sun Where is summer Mets and models busting all week Models have been gross in mid range Yea sort of agree here, and as usual this Spring you only have to get to Philly to see some sun and 80s. We will definitely get it (and then some) tomorrow though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 minute ago, FPizz said: Upgraded to Enhanced for eastern PA/western NJ now Yeah I saw that. Interesting that the watch extends to marginal areas like coastal monmouth but I'm now in a slight zone and no watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Love those extremes! Sorta. I was shoeless, shirtless and had all the windows (and roof) open. This was before I had cars with electric windows so I had to stop and run around the car closing stuff barefoot in heavy snow. It kinda sucked The 85° difference in an hour was pretty cool though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Let’s go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 Impressive looking warned cell SW of Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Mostly sun now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Still 68 north of the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Looks like some action ahead of the main line in SEPA. What could become our MCS is still west of Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Anything from upton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Still 68 north of the warm front 74 just to your north. weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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