LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This is going to be an onshore flow warm up with a sharp temperature gradient between NJ and the Long Island South Shore. May 1996 was and offshore flow event with Newark and Minolta Long Island reaching 99°. So this is the benchmark for extreme May heat across the area. There were a few COOP sites in NJ that hit 100°. But no major sites that I was able to find. Monthly Data for May 1996 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 99 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 98 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 97 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 97 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96 NJ CRANFORD COOP 96 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 96 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 96 NJ WAYNE COOP 96 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 96 NY SUFFERN COOP 96 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 96 NY WEST POINT COOP 95 NY WEST NYACK COOP 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 95 Monthly Data for May 1996 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature PA PALMERTON COOP 100 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 100 NJ TOMS RIVER COOP 99 NJ PEMBERTON COOP 98 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 98 PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 97 I feel like May 1996 was the last remnant of the hot summer of 1995, because after that it was just humid warm weather, we didn't even hit 90 again until the last day of August. In August 1995 we didn't have any measurable rain until the last day of August. Such radically different summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It could be similar to 1996 away from the sea breeze in NJ. But the flow will be more onshore for our area. That event had westerly flow right out to Eastern Long Island. Saturday continues to look like easily the hottest day of the stretch. 850mb temperatures rise to around +19 to +22C, and the H5 height hits an impressive 590 dam. These are near the maximum values recorded in the regional area for this time of year per SPC sounding climatology. With large scale subsidence in place, it also looks like we will see abundant sunshine to fully take advantage of this environment. Little change was made to the temperature forecast, which is a high confidence forecast as evidenced by there being only 2 to 3 degrees of spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles. Highs in the mid to locally upper 90s are expected, at or above daily records and in some cases near all time May monthly records. Looks like urban areas could be in the 90s on Sunday too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like urban areas could be in the 90s on Sunday too? I could see the Park being warmer on Sunday than Saturday honestly. 92 Saturday and 94 Sunday would be my guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I could see the Park being warmer on Sunday than Saturday honestly. 92 Saturday and 94 Sunday would be my guess delayed frontal passages remind me of the 90s, 1993 was full of those, that's why those summers were so hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like urban areas could be in the 90s on Sunday too? I noticed some forecasts have gone in that direction. Not everyone though, for what it's worth I was watching ch 7 this morn Sam Champion sounded skeptical of that. NWS forecasts for me in the middle of the Bx has went to 91 on Sat and 92 on Sun. Their rain chances on Sun have dropped to 30% as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 The GFS finally steps off the top of MT. OLYMPUS........moves away from scaping 100. Well I forgot to mention it again---that today is the 60th anniversary of the highest T in May 99 in 1962. The day apparently started at 57. Anyone have the hourly figures for that day in Central Park? Thank You.......uncle W !! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The GFS finally steps off the top of MT. OLYMPUS........moves away from scaping 100. Well I forgot to mention it again---that today is the 60th anniversary of the highest T in May 99 in 1962. The day apparently started at 57. Anyone have the hourly figures for that day in Central Park? IPS-BCFB3D95-0899-4346-94BF-2DC7313126F6.pdf (noaa.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2022 Author Share Posted May 19, 2022 Looks like this will be the 2nd year in a row with the weekend before Memorial Day being warmer. New run Old run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 3 hours ago, dWave said: I noticed some forecasts have gone in that direction. Not everyone though, for what it's worth I was watching ch 7 this morn Sam Champion sounded skeptical of that. NWS forecasts for me in the middle of the Bx has went to 91 on Sat and 92 on Sun. Their rain chances on Sun have dropped to 30% as well. I think the rain might be coming Sunday night. This afternoon's update has 93 for Saturday (to tie the record from 1996) and 92 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like this will be the 2nd year in a row with the weekend before Memorial Day being warmer. New run Old run I thought we were supposed to get very warm again for Memorial Day weekend and perhaps hit the 90s again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: The GFS finally steps off the top of MT. OLYMPUS........moves away from scaping 100. Well I forgot to mention it again---that today is the 60th anniversary of the highest T in May 99 in 1962. The day apparently started at 57. Anyone have the hourly figures for that day in Central Park? Thank You.......uncle W !! Lol they have 87 for Monday? I thought Monday was supposed to be much cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2022 Author Share Posted May 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I thought we were supposed to get very warm again for Memorial Day weekend and perhaps hit the 90s again? Still looks like too much wavelength volatility for any extended warm ups just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Still looks like too much wavelength volatility for any extended warm ups just yet. I heard Denver is going from 90 to Winter Storm Warnings and 6 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. Temperatures will rise into the 70s throughout much of the region. Out West, Denver, which saw temperatures rise into the upper 80s today will see showers and rain turn to a heavy snowfall tomorrow night into Saturday. In the northern Middle Atlantic region, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +13.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.830 today. On May 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The May 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.440 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like this will be the 2nd year in a row with the weekend before Memorial Day being warmer. New run Old run That’s not hard to do if the weekend prior has record warmth haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2022 Author Share Posted May 19, 2022 49 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: That’s not hard to do if the weekend prior has record warmth haha The warmth around Christmas has been more memorable than Memorial Day in recent years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Thats a big flip flop for the models for Memorial Day weekend. Let's hope it flops back 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Random downpour here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 I was in Denver in July or August 1987, it was 109° downtown. 70 or so miles west I had to stop and put the (removable) moonroof back in the car because it was 24° and snowing heavily. 15 miles after that it was back to 85° and beautiful. That was fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Picked up 1.27" of rain for the day. Current temp 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 3 hours ago, gravitylover said: I was in Denver in July or August 1987, it was 109° downtown. 70 or so miles west I had to stop and put the (removable) moonroof back in the car because it was 24° and snowing heavily. 15 miles after that it was back to 85° and beautiful. That was fun. Love those extremes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Wow, fog came in like a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 9 hours ago, winterwarlock said: Thats a big flip flop for the models for Memorial Day weekend. Let's hope it flops back The models haven’t been the greatest recently. So we have been seeing quite a bit of run to run variation. It may be related to the record La Niña for this time of year and developing -IOD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(62/85) or +8. Month to date is 60.7[-0.9]. Should be 64 3[+1.7] by the 28th. Reached 68 yesterday. Today: 71-76, wind e. to s.,m. cloudy, rain late-till midnight, 67 tomorrow AM. I will say it again. The GFS---a model with no Quality Control or Self-Respect................. 59*(90%RH) here at 7am.{ 56 at 1am} 62* at 9am. 67* at 11pm. 63* at 1pm. 68* at 2:30pm. 62* at 4pm FOG<0.10mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds and fog will give way to some sunshine. Late afternoon or overnight showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s along the Connecticut shore to upper 80s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 74° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 87° The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region. Many locations away from the water will see their first 90s of the year. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 72.4°; 15-Year: 73.1° Newark: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.4°; 15-Year: 76.1° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Heat Advisories for areas north and west of NYC. Also seems as if the thunderstorm potential increased slightly: As the ridging attempts to get established and mid level shortwave will begin to approach and work through from the CWA. This MCC, or what`s left of it is now progged by most near term guidance to slide through late in the day and into this evening. There is uncertainty as to how much this MCC / MCV can maintain itself as it works east of the Appalachians and closer to the Atlantic seaboard. The instability and convection should become more elevated as it works east as it encounter the more stable air and relatively lower dewpoint / virtual temperature near surface profile. Look for a thunderstorm / thundershower chance from west to east as this system pushes through. This will ride basically north of a warm front down to the south. The remnant MCC /MCV should then eject to the ENE towards midnight. Thereafter the warm front approaches and pushes through towards daybreak Saturday morning. Look for a good deal of clouds and low level moisture to persist through much of the night until the warm front can clear the area. Lows will be above normal with cloud cover in place, along with patchy fog in spots, especially where rain can occur and moisten the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 beyond the heat Sat (May 21) and Sun (May 22) next shot at some quick heat (90s) would be Thu (May 26) as quick surge of heat moves through. Memorial Day weekend still a bit iffy rain wise. Heat wise the ceiling looks to be low 80s (max). Beyond there slight hint of heat signal in the Jun 4th period GFS and other guidance hints at strong ridge into the GL/OV but could see onshore along coast. Far out there but something to track as well as any tropical development in GOM/W-FL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2022 Author Share Posted May 20, 2022 This MCS looks like it will be more impressive than the storms on Monday were. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/rloop.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Wish I was in Denver 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This MCS looks like it will be more impressive than the storms on Monday were. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NAMSFC4_6z/rloop.html Yeah the slight chance is not too far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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