Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Humidity dropping here along with the severe threat That line headed toward Philly is intensifying. Too bad it probably misses to our south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That line headed toward Philly is intensifying. Too bad it probably misses to our south It's going to be close. The northern part of the line will at least get into Middlesex County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The storms to the southwest of Allentown look pretty good, so the threat isn't over yet. Hopefully they'll hold together and hit us in a couple hours. They are heading eastbound. They won’t even extend as far north as my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Finally getting a legit downpour here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Delightful evening out here. 1 min rain shower earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Since 2014 when the SPC changed classification systems, the general public and in some cases, municipalities and public authorities have failed to understand that enhanced is an extension of "slight risk". I still have this conversation with others that interpret "enhanced" as more potent than "moderate".... IJS.... Keep things simple for the simpleton. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 The northern part of the line should make it to at least the new brunswick area and probably clip parts of SI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: Delightful evening out here. 1 min rain shower earlier I had two 1 min rain showers. I win. Our time will come later in the summer after the ocean warms up further. We usually score at least once per summer on the sea breeze front T-storms too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Can’t buy rain on the uws. Everything is training just to my east and messing up instability for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Heavy sun shower. Pouring rain with bright sunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 0.55” in the bucket from this afternoons events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 More downpours here and this time with thunder and lightning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Storm in northern Queens just got severe warned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Nice little hook developing with this tiny cell heading towards Port Jefferson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Run of mill thundershower just came thru..meh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Yep. Heavy rain , a little breezy in PJ. Was really trying to have hope. Nope. Cleaned truck or pollen though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 Following today's passage of a cold front, slightly cooler weather will follow for tomorrow through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline may remain much cooler than interior sections. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +20.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today. On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.656 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.698 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 If we get .10” on the uws I would be surprised. It takes everything to wrong for that to occur with the kind of dynamics we have today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 this anvil precip screwed us. some models had it but others didn't. there's no way to know which camp will be correct ahead of time 00z 3k forecast that had more heating: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 This from Twitter from Dr Alecia Bentley on severe storms in northeast and why certain o patterns over-perform (maybe explaining tonight’s underperformance) https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/32/5/waf-d-17-0044_1.xml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Lol @ the intensity just offshore east of LI. I hate it here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, Cfa said: Lol @ the intensity just offshore east of LI. I hate it here. If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Nice enough thunderstorm I guess, it was the heaviest rain I've had yet this year so there's that but it was only .8". I guess that puts me around half of where I should be for the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 0.80 of rain here from todays storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. Somebody might have addressed this in the past, but why do storms often seem to refire once they push offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 6 hours ago, Shades said: Since 2014 when the SPC changed classification systems, the general public and in some cases, municipalities and public authorities have failed to understand that enhanced is an extension of "slight risk". I still have this conversation with others that interpret "enhanced" as more potent than "moderate".... IJS.... Keep things simple for the simpleton. This whole scale needs to be changed. Ditch "enhanced" What are the percentages on this? Marginal should be 10%, Slight should be 20%, Moderate should be 30% and High should be 50% If you really want to keep "Enhanced" move it ahead of Moderate and make it 40%, then you have a nice 10% increment scale from 10-50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off. Not a fan of severe weather at all, I'd rather have dry and hot between snow season and tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Following today's passage of a cold front, slightly cooler weather will follow for tomorrow through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline may remain much cooler than interior sections. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +20.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today. On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.656 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.698 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal). Looks like cooler and drier weather coming back after the hot weather spike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 6 hours ago, psv88 said: Heavy sun shower. Pouring rain with bright sunshine any rainbows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 6 hours ago, jm1220 said: I had two 1 min rain showers. I win. Our time will come later in the summer after the ocean warms up further. We usually score at least once per summer on the sea breeze front T-storms too. Likely August or later. Peak severe weather here is September thru November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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