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bluewave
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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

the good old days-- have you noticed we dont get that anymore?  80s and especially 90s were our hottest decade

 

now its all about high mins which isn't really "hot" it's stuffy and humid

I'm not sure this stat is kept anywhere but I feel like the number of extreme heat waves (heat waves with 5 or more days in a row of 90+ has actually gotten less).  We already know the 90s had the highest number of 90 degree days.

 

 

1980 holds the record (or did) for the most consecutive minimums 70 or above...

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Today saw sufficient sunshine to boost readings into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Nevertheless temperatures overall were generally near or somewhat below normal. The week will feature numerous days with unsettled weather. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as has been the case this year. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The end result will likely be a warmer than normal May when the month concludes.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around April 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +9.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.439 today.

On April 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.553 (RMM). The April 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.770 (RMM).

 

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if this is the first time that we get 5 warmer summers in a row. We already set the warm winters record with 7 consecutive years since 15-16. But the summer warm streaks in the past have usually stopped at 3-4 years. We had the 4 year run from 2010 to 2013. Then the 2014 summer was closer to normal. Our last near normal summer was 2017. 

Near normal and cool years bolded

Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 

2021….+1.1….+1.2

2020…+2.6….+2.9

2019…+1.5…..+1.8

2017…..+0.2….0.0

2016….+2.5….+2.5

2015….+1.4…..+0.8

2014…..-0.1…..-0.1

2013….+1.2…..+1.3

2012…..+1.7…..+1.7

2011…..+2.2…..+1.8

2010….+3.9…..+3.4

2009….-0.6…..-0.6

2008….+1.2……+1.4

2007…..+0.3…..+0.6

2006…..+1.7……+1.6

2005…..+2.6…..+3.3

2004…..-0.3….-0.6

2003…+0.4….+0.4

2002…..+1.6….+2.3

2001…..+0.7…..+0.6

2000…..-1.2…..-1.3

1999…..+2.7…..+2.9

1998….+0.7…..+0.7

1997….-0.3……-0.8

1996…..-0.6….-0.4

1995….+1.4…..+1.8

1994….+1.5…..+1.8

1993….+1.4…..+1.3

1992….-2.0…..-2.3

1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

These summers honestly aren't as hot as the amazing ones from the past.

It's like comparing Mickey Mantle to Aaron Judge lol.

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

These summers honestly aren't as hot as the amazing ones from the past.

It's like comparing Mickey Mantle to Aaron Judge lol.

Last summer set the new all-time hottest June temperature of 103° at Newark and 102° in Central Queens. It was also a high ranking 90° day year in Northern NJ. The 2020 summer was 2nd warmest on record behind 2010. Plus the dewpoints have been a record heights since the super El Niño in 2016. So the heat indices have been higher adding to how hot it has felt. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I figured it was either that or 1983, two of my favorite summers from back then

 

my favorite Summer when I was a teen was the Summer of 1963...it had major heat waves but record cold also...1964 would be second for the same reasons...Both years were around 100 on July 1st...

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Last summer set the new all-time hottest June temperature of 103° at Newark and 102° in Central Queens. It was also a high ranking 90° day year in Northern NJ. The 2020 summer was 2nd warmest on record behind 2010. Plus the dewpoints have been a record heights since the super El Niño in 2016. So the heat indices have been higher adding to how hot it has felt. 

Unfortunately the temperatures dont seem to match and I was honestly shocked to see the deviation from average in 2020, it never felt like that here-- we never even got close to 100. It's the curse of that south wind.

We need to just keep track of the highs and average those out because the definition of a hot day is high temp 90 or above.  So judging heat by how many 90 degree days there are each year is probably the best way.

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy with some showers today. A few places could see an thundershower. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. It will be noticeably warmer in southern New Jersey and southward where the temperature will rise into the 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°

Newark: 62°

Philadelphia: 74°

Much of the week will see temperatures remain generally below normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 67.9°; 15-Year: 68.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 68.7°; 15-Year: 69.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 70.6°; 15-Year: 71.1°

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The next 8 days are averaging  55degs.(50/59) or -5.

Reached 60 here yesterday.

Today: 55-58, wind e. to ne., cloudy, rain early, 51 tomorrow AM.

Thursday is best day until at least this time next week?

53*(95%RH) here at 7am.      Reached 59* at 3pm.    54* at 8pm.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Unfortunately the temperatures dont seem to match and I was honestly shocked to see the deviation from average in 2020, it never felt like that here-- we never even got close to 100. It's the curse of that south wind.

We need to just keep track of the highs and average those out because the definition of a hot day is high temp 90 or above.  So judging heat by how many 90 degree days there are each year is probably the best way.

 

It’s tough to judge the high temperatures across the area based on what is happening along the immediate south shore which is heavily influenced by the sea breeze. The coastal climate division covers all of Long Island and the 5 boroughs of NYC. So stations like JFK don’t really represent what the high temperatures are doing. The list below is the 10 highest maximum temperature summers. You can see that while 2010 was in a class by itself, years like 2016 and 2020 were right behind in 2nd and 3rd place. The only top 5 warmest summer for highs before 2010 was 1999. 
 

201006 - 201008 84.2°F 127 4.9°F
201606 - 201608 83.1°F 126 3.8°F
202006 - 202008 82.9°F 125 3.6°F
199906 - 199908 82.8°F 124 3.5°F
201106 - 201108 82.6°F 123 3.3°F
200506 - 200508 82.3°F 122 3.0°F
194906 - 194908 82.1°F 121 2.8°F
199106 - 199108 82.1°F 121 2.8°F
200206 - 200208 82.1°F 121 2.8°F
201206 - 201208 82.1°F 121 2.8°F
198306 - 198308 82.0°F 117 2.7°F
194406 - 194408 81.9°F 116 2.6°F
195206 - 195208 81.8°F 115 2.5°F
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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s tough to judge the high temperatures across the area based on what is happening along the immediate south shore which is heavily influenced by the sea breeze. The coastal climate division covers all of Long Island and the 5 boroughs of NYC. So stations like JFK don’t really represent what the high temperatures are doing. The list below is the 10 highest maximum temperature summers. You can see that while 2010 was in a class by itself, years like 2016 and 2020 were right behind in 2nd and 3rd place. The only top 5 warmest summer for highs before 2010 was 1999. 
 

201006 - 201008 84.2°F 127 4.9°F
201606 - 201608 83.1°F 126 3.8°F
202006 - 202008 82.9°F 125 3.6°F
199906 - 199908 82.8°F 124 3.5°F
201106 - 201108 82.6°F 123 3.3°F
200506 - 200508 82.3°F 122 3.0°F
194906 - 194908 82.1°F 121 2.8°F
199106 - 199108 82.1°F 121 2.8°F
200206 - 200208 82.1°F 121 2.8°F
201206 - 201208 82.1°F 121 2.8°F
198306 - 198308 82.0°F 117 2.7°F
194406 - 194408 81.9°F 116 2.6°F
195206 - 195208 81.8°F 115 2.5°F

But doesn't the southrely breeze indicate the heat isn't strong enough to reach the coast?  2010 stands out as so much hotter than any other year it's amazing....what happened to make that summer so different and how long before it happens again?

Yes 1999 was amazing too!

I have my list lol....2010, 2002, 1999, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1983, 1980

 

Weird thing is Newark seems to be a closer match to JFK for top heat in these years than LGA is-- did you notice that too, Chris?

 

Oh I see 2002, 1991 and 1983 are in your list too!  I see 2011 is in there too and while that takes the cake for the hottest day I've experienced here, the historically rainy August made that summer not as hot as the others in my list.

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But doesn't the southrely breeze indicate the heat isn't strong enough to reach the coast?  2010 stands out as so much hotter than any other year it's amazing....what happened to make that summer so different and how long before it happens again?

Yes 1999 was amazing too!

I have my list lol....2010, 2002, 1999, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1983, 1980

 

Weird thing is Newark seems to be a closer match to JFK for top heat in these years than LGA is-- did you notice that too, Chris?

 

Oh I see 2002, 1991 and 1983 are in your list too!  I see 2011 is in there too and while that takes the cake for the hottest day I've experienced here, the historically rainy August made that summer not as hot as the others in my list.

2020 was the 4th warmest summer at JFK for average daily high temperature at 83.2°. It’s was #1 at LGA since the flow was more SW at 86.9°. So the sea breeze can make a big difference.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 85.4 0
2 2016 83.8 0
- 2011 83.8 0
3 2015 83.3 0
4 2020 83.2 0
- 1971 83.2 0
5 1991 83.1 0
- 1983 83.1 0
- 1949 83.1 0
6 1966 83.0 0
7 2012 82.9 0
8 2008 82.8 0
9 2002 82.7 0
- 1999 82.7 0
10 2005 82.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 86.9 0
2 2010 86.7 0
3 2016 86.3 0
4 1994 85.6 0
5 2005 85.3 0
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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2020 was the 4th warmest summer at JFK for average daily high temperature at 83.2°. It’s was #1 at LGA since the flow was more SW at 86.9°. So the sea breeze can make a big difference.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 85.4 0
2 2016 83.8 0
- 2011 83.8 0
3 2015 83.3 0
4 2020 83.2 0
- 1971 83.2 0
5 1991 83.1 0
- 1983 83.1 0
- 1949 83.1 0
6 1966 83.0 0
7 2012 82.9 0
8 2008 82.8 0
9 2002 82.7 0
- 1999 82.7 0
10 2005 82.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 86.9 0
2 2010 86.7 0
3 2016 86.3 0
4 1994 85.6 0
5 2005 85.3 0

Did you notice something odd Chris that temperature records at JFK for hottest summers seem to correspond better between JFK and EWR than they do between JFK and LGA?  Also, if we take mins out of the equation and just focus on number of 90 degree days how far up does 2020 rank for that at LGA?  I think we'll also see a stronger correspondence there between EWR and JFK than either with LGA.

Also what would it take to see  a repeat of a 2010 kind of summer? Something after a strong el nino?

 

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29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yes very loud and I thought I heard hail but it was probably just really big raindrops lol the lightning was very vivid though

we get our best thunderstorms in the early morning oddly enough

 

I was woken up out my sleep like wtf? Lol

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