Rjay Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: At least we will still get a descent soaking. I just installed 40k worth of plants on campus and haven’t turned on the irrigation yet Yup. Had light rain. Turned to moderate for a bit now. Nothing extreme. Downpour right now but much more tame overall than what was shown over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yup. Had light rain. Turned to moderate for a bit now. Nothing extreme. Downpour right now but much more tame overall than what was shown over the ocean. For some reason that has been the theme lately. It’s like a boost from the Gulf Stream and then fizzle. 50/60 degree water temps are very stable. Once you get into the 70/80 range convection fires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Raining again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 gloomy and rainy=perfect weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 14, 2022 Author Share Posted May 14, 2022 I wonder if this is the first time that the same cutoff low caused rain on two consecutive Saturdays? May 7th May 14th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Welp, time for a nap I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: One of the worst April may combos of my lifetime….ugly weather Yeah it's been pretty stanky. Pattern might finally be breaking down though. Probably going to flip to summer quickly! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Clouds broke in parts of the New York City area sending temperatures into the 70s. Islip reached 76°. A few showers overspread the region from south to north during the late afternoon and evening. Up north, temperatures rose into the 80s and even 90s. High temperatures included: Albany: 84° Bangor: 91° (old record: 87°, 1961) Boston: 86° (tied record set in 1879) Burlington: 88° (old record: 86°, 1961) Caribou: 82° (old record: 81°, 1961) ***4th consecutive record high*** Concord: 89° Hartford: 84° Manchester, NH: 91° (old record: 81°, 2004 and 2018) Montreal: 87° (old record: 85°, 2004) Portland: 84° (old record: 81°, 1961) Tomorrow will see more sunshine with readings rising into the middle and perhaps upper 70s. Monday will be very warm, but there will be the risk of strong thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region. After a slight cooldown during the middle of next week, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +19.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.432 today. On May 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.621 (RMM). The May 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.372 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: gloomy and rainy=perfect weather... Tell that to my kids who now are stuck inside on a Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 May is crappy more often that not around here. We got spoiled by the 2010-2012 stretch which was 3 warm/dry springs for the most part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: At least we will still get a descent soaking. I just installed 40k worth of plants on campus and haven’t turned on the irrigation yet gets rid of the pollen too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Slight risk issued for Monday i'm pretty impressed by the setup. might need its own thread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: These negative tilt trough severe events tend to overperform. the upper jet maxes out over us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 0.11” of meh. Topped out at 82 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 A Hot Quickie on all the models. "ALEX" could pass by near the end of the period too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 0.31" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 0.00 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 Day 2 Enhanced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: At least we will still get a descent soaking. I just installed 40k worth of plants on campus and haven’t turned on the irrigation yet it better be clear tomorrow night, these clouds can go away now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 9 hours ago, Brian5671 said: gets rid of the pollen too. for me clear and dry air gets rid of all pollen, the rain and humidity makes it much worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 9 hours ago, Brian5671 said: May is crappy more often that not around here. We got spoiled by the 2010-2012 stretch which was 3 warm/dry springs for the most part. its lot rainier and crapper than it was in the 80s and 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 10 hours ago, bluewave said: I wonder if this is the first time that the same cutoff low caused rain on two consecutive Saturdays? May 7th May 14th how long does it take for a cutoff low to disintegrate on its own if it doesn't go anywhere? It has to sometime right-- eventually high pressure will fill up the low and it will dissipate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 10 hours ago, nycwinter said: gloomy and rainy=perfect weather... there will be hell to pay if that eclipse doesn't work out tomorrow night, the clouds can go away forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 51 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Day 2 Enhanced! This looks interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: how long does it take for a cutoff low to disintegrate on its own if it doesn't go anywhere? It has to sometime right-- eventually high pressure will fill up the low and it will dissipate. It’s theoretically possible given the right circumstances for one to last forever. Lows do not just “fill” as long as there is moisture transport from the ocean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(62/84) or +9. Over the next 10 days the highest T is 99 on the GFS, 84 on the CMC, and just 80 on the EURO again. GFS has been the star here for a week. The projection below is always based on the GFS so it could be wack-a-doo. Month to date is 59.0[-2.0]. Should be near 64.0[+2.0] by the 23rd. Reached 67 yesterday. Today: 68-75, wind w.-n.w., breaks in clouds by 1pm, 64 tomorrow AM. 58*(99%RH) here at 7am FOG <0.10mi.{was 57-60 overnight} 62* at 9am, still foggy. 68* at 11am and still foggy, but lifted some. 69* at Noon, fog mostly gone, some clouds, but 66* at 1pm. 65*-67* during last 3 hours, with good sun-but continually varying fog, 4pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s theoretically possible given the right circumstances for one to last forever. Lows do not just “fill” as long as there is moisture transport from the ocean. That makes me wonder are there actually storms that just keep circling the earth over and over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 finally broke down A/C is on. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 Morning thoughts… Morning fog will give way to variably cloudy skies. It will be warmer. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 81° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. Strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms are likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.2°; 15-Year: 72.0° Newark: 30-Year: 72.3°; 15-Year: 73.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.1°; 15-Year: 74.8° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like next weekend could continue the onshore flow theme that has been dominating May so far. The Euro has 850 mb temperatures in the +18C to +20C range for Saturday. If the flow went SW, then the warm spots like Newark would easily rise to the mid to upper 90s. But a new wrinkle is showing up in the latest guidance. Subtle warm front forms near the area with SSE sea breezes. This limits the mid 90s potential to Central NJ where the winds go more SW. So places like NYC and LGA could struggle to reach 90°. Newark would be close and could see 90°. But if later runs have more SW flow, then the warmer Euro idea of yesterday would work out. Yup. Has Long Island now in the 60/70’s next weekend with nyc reaching 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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