Cfa Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 78 here. You can feel the soupiness in the air (not a complaint, I love it). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Weather Trivia: With Caribou reaching 80 degrees, 2022 has become the first year during which Chicago reached 90 degrees (5/11) and Caribou reached 80 degrees (5/12) before Central Park reported its first 80-degree temperature of the year. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Man did NWS blow this forecast. They called for 66 and clouds all day. It’s been 75 and sunny all afternoon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 75 and sunny is perfect mailman weather. I can wear shorts and not need a shower at the end of my shift.Fog is rolling in here right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures again rose into the 70s across much of the region. Record heat again prevailed from the Midwest into Canada. Records included: Bangor: 85° (old record: 83°, 1991) Burlington: 89° (old record: 84°, 2004) Caribou: 81° (old record: 78°, 1992) Eau Claire, WI: 94° (old record: 92°, 1900) Madison: 93° (old record: 86°, 1991) ***Earliest heatwave on record*** Moline, IL: 95° (old record: 94°, 1956) Montreal: 86° (old record: 81°, 1992) Ottawa: 85° (old record: 82°, 1992) Plattsburgh, NY: 85° (old record: 83°, 1956) Quebec City: 81° (old record: 76°, 2016) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 75° (old record: 70°, 2016) Rockford, IL: 93° (old record: 88°, 1896) Sherbrooke, QC: 86° (old record: 66°, 2006) St. Louis: 93° (old record: 92°, 1956) Syracuse: 85° (old record: 84°, 1985, 1993, and 2014) Trois-Rivières: 85° (old record: 71°, 2012) Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s on both days during the weekend. However, record-challenging or record-breaking temperatures will stay to the north and west of the region. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +32.80 today. That was a May record 3rd consecutive day with an SOI figure at or above +30.00. The old record was set during May 9-10, 2000 and tied during May 27-28, 2010 and May 16-17, 2013. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.313 today. That surpassed the old daily record +2.942 from 1992. On May 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.042 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.984 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Most of tonight's computer guidance appears to be coming a tad bit warmer than at 12Z. May 20th-22nd will depend on the exact position of the Bermuda high but barring any b-door front it looks very warm to perhaps hot. And most of the models earlier indicated more very warn to possibly hot weather towards the last week of the month. WX/PT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 20 hours ago, bluewave said: Almost a week now that this cutoff has been stuck under the near record 588 dm block. So more of the same for our area. Clouds and 60s near the shore today with onshore flow. Record heat potential well into the 80s over the interior Northeast. It was actually sunny for most of the day, that low is far away from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 17 hours ago, bluewave said: This is a much weaker version of the May 2020 over the top heatwave. That one produced the May all-time high of 95° at BTV while we were much cooler. So record heat directed to our NW is becoming more common with these record 500 mb ridges. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/28/montreal-record-may-heat/ Didn't it snow here in May 2020? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: People will be begging for cool, dry days before they know it except for Forky Shore areas really getting skunked though. Only 50s for all of Jersey shore long island was nice and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures again rose into the 70s across much of the region. Record heat again prevailed from the Midwest into Canada. Records included: Bangor: 85° (old record: 83°, 1991) Burlington: 89° (old record: 84°, 2004) Caribou: 81° (old record: 78°, 1992) Eau Claire, WI: 94° (old record: 92°, 1900) Madison: 93° (old record: 86°, 1991) ***Earliest heatwave on record*** Moline, IL: 95° (old record: 94°, 1956) Montreal: 86° (old record: 81°, 1992) Ottawa: 85° (old record: 82°, 1992) Plattsburgh, NY: 85° (old record: 83°, 1956) Quebec City: 81° (old record: 76°, 2016) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 75° (old record: 70°, 2016) Rockford, IL: 93° (old record: 88°, 1896) Sherbrooke, QC: 86° (old record: 66°, 2006) St. Louis: 93° (old record: 92°, 1956) Syracuse: 85° (old record: 84°, 1985, 1993, and 2014) Trois-Rivières: 85° (old record: 71°, 2012) Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with some showers. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures will likely reach the 70s on both days during the weekend. However, record-challenging or record-breaking temperatures will stay to the north and west of the region. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +32.80 today. That was a May record 3rd consecutive day with an SOI figure at or above +30.00. The old record was set during May 9-10, 2000 and tied during May 27-28, 2010 and May 16-17, 2013. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.313 today. That surpassed the old daily record +2.942 from 1992. On May 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.042 (RMM). The May 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.984 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal). wow 1992 was the coolest summer in my memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and mild. There could be some fog and also some showers. Most of the day will be dry. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 75° The weekend could start with another mainly cloudy day, but partial sunshine is likely on Sunday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 70.7°; 15-Year: 71.6° Newark: 30-Year: 71.8°; 15-Year: 72.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.3° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It was actually sunny for most of the day, that low is far away from us. The main feature with a cutoff to our south is easterly flow. So we had clouds in the morning with sun in the afternoon and fog by the evening. It finally lifts north the next few days with some scattered showers as the low moves to our west. So the warm spots in NJ will see some 80s from Sunday into Monday with SW flow. Next weekend could be the first 90s of the season for the usual warm spots. We had one cooler run at 12z yesterday. But the 0z guidance is back to the warmer idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(59/78) or +5. Month to date is 58.0[-2.7]. Should be 62.4[+0.4] by the 21st. Reached 69 here yesterday. Today: 65-70, wind e., cloudy, fog early,60 by tomorrow AM. HW Warning on again for May 20, 21, 22. Near 100x3??? Short, but spectacular---like May 19, 1962? 60*(99%RH) here at 7am, Fog<0.5mi. 62*/63* at 10am and still foggy. 68* at Noon, fog lifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Heat is coming and storms as well. Monday looks interesting. 90s after the 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 On 5/11/2022 at 10:32 AM, snowman19 said: @bluewave @donsutherland1Besides the stout Niña, look at how strongly negative the PDO and PMM are. Given the strong -IOD expected, I wonder if we may see an unprecedented 3rd year strong La Niña event? This Is the first time we had such a negative April anomaly following a second-year La Niña. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake At -1.1 °C, April 2022 was tied with 1950 for the strongest negative April anomaly in the 1950–present record. That’s according to ERSSTv5, our most reliable long-term sea surface temperature observationdataset. In the context of repeat La Niña events, the April average anomaly was noticeably stronger than any of the other 8 second-year La Niñas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Didn't it snow here in May 2020? Yes. Pictures came up on my memories on my phone the other day. It ripped for a few minutes late at night, after midnight and again during the daylight. It was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Yes. Pictures came up on my memories on my phone the other day. It ripped for a few minutes late at night, after midnight and again during the daylight. It was nuts. My pool was getting opened that afternoon while it was snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 The most extreme heat record with this May over the top heatwave was the new May all-time high temperature of 96° at Traverse City, Michigan. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 0127 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2022 ...RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TRAVERSE CITY MI... ...DAILY RECORDS SET AT TRAVERSE CITY, GAYLORD, AND PELLSTON... YESTERDAY, CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT IN TRAVERSE CITY HAD A HIGH OF 96 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE ALL-TIME WARMEST TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 HAS BEEN REACHED FOUR TIMES PREVIOUSLY IN MAY, MOST RECENTLY ON MAY 29 2018. THIS ALSO SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR YESTERDAYS DATE, MAY 12, WHICH WAS 86 DEGREES, SET IN 1944. THIS IS ALSO THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR IN WHICH TRAVERSE CITY HAS HIT 95 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 95 READING WAS ON MAY 20 1977. OTHER RECORDS BROKEN YESTERDAY... THE GAYLORD REGIONAL AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 84 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1991. THE PELLSTON AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 87 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Swan song the next 36 hours for the pesty cut off. Then looking like the building warmth spreads east post Tue (5/17). Will be tracking our first 90s of the season potentially by later next week as others have been on for a while now. Till then more clouds in the way kind of weather. Sat looks dry though, 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Sun trying to break though here-wonder if we end up with more sun today than forecast just like the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Sun trying to break though here-wonder if we end up with more sun today than forecast just like the past couple of days.That sun is strong. Trying hard to burn throughSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Heat is coming and storms as well. Monday looks interesting. 90s after the 20th. If we can keep winds from a westerly direction late week we should be off to the races. Probably mid 90s in the hotter areas given how hot the source region is. But we need the ridge to make a good push east or the threat of the back door front will be around. If the trough keeps getting stuck over the Maritimes you can never count on extended warmth this time of year. But two straight weeks pretty much of easterly winds have to come to an end. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 One thing for sure, temps are outperforming even with all the clouds and onshore flow. Mid to high 70s once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 sun has broken out in the city when it was predicted to be cloudy with drizzle from time to time during the day another blown forecast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Just now, jm1220 said: One thing for sure, temps are outperforming even with all the clouds and onshore flow. Mid to high 70s once again. it was suppose to be drizzle and cloudy all day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 Our highest dewpoints of the season so far. MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 74 65 73 SE7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our highest dewpoints of the season so far. MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 74 65 73 SE7 Yeah the soupy dews are definitely back. Last night was muggy. Finally time to put away the flannel sheets until the fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 cleared out here nicely-more humid today but it's sunny again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 53 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Yeah the soupy dews are definitely back. Last night was muggy. Finally time to put away the flannel sheets until the fall! Getting some elevated convection south of us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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