May 2022

[MJO812]

Gfs has upper 80s for my wedding next weekend 

[Allsnow]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Congratulations. The Euro control has temperatures near 90°. That ridge looks flatter. So more of a Bermuda high and SW flow possible.

Please be correct 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Please be correct 

This has been one of those rare times with easterly flow lasting for 2 weeks. 
 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Congratulations. The Euro control has temperatures near 90°. That ridge looks flatter. So more of a Bermuda high and SW flow possible.

High 70s here along the shore

[SnoSki14]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Please be correct 

Why the rush to 90F

The past few days have been perfect and I'm saving on AC costs.

You have at least 3 months of 90s to look forward to. 

[ILoveWinter]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Why the rush to 90F

The past few days have been perfect and I'm saving on AC costs.

You have at least 3 months of 90s to look forward to. 

Was at the Yankee game last night (epic) and it was way too cold for my liking, looking forward to some warmer days/nights!

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nearly every May since 2010 Newark has made it to 90°. So we’ll eventually make a run on 90° before the month is over. It’s tough to only stay in the 70s this time of year at our local warm spots.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
2022	75	21
2021	96	0
2020	86	0
2019	90	0
2018	94	0
2017	94	0
2016	96	0
2015	91	0
2014	88	0
2013	94	0
2012	92	0
2011	92	0
2010	95	0

@bluewave @donsutherland1Besides the stout Niña, look at how strongly negative the PDO and PMM are. Given the strong -IOD expected, I wonder if we may see an unprecedented 3rd year strong La Niña event? 

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has upper 80s for my wedding next weekend 

Congratulations

[Snowlover11]

yeah if the 90s could hold off that would be great! moving the first week in june.  after that we can be 120 for all i care.

[Brian5671]

clearing out here from east to west lol

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Was at the Yankee game last night (epic) and it was way too cold for my liking, looking forward to some warmer days/nights!

Was just saying this last night.  I'd love to get to a game soon, but only after it warms up a lil more.

[forkyfork]

as soon as snow season is done bring on 78 degree lows

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

as soon as snow season is done bring on 78 degree lows

Earliest 78° low on record for Topeka, Kansas by over 3 weeks.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
138 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

...MONTHLY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT TOPEKA KS...

YESTERDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURE AT TOPEKA'S BILLARD AIRPORT WAS 78 
DEGREES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 
FOR MAY 10. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 75 DEGREES...SET IN 2011.

THIS ALSO SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE 
MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 DEGREES...SET ON MAY 25, 
1896...MAY 26, 2012...AND MAY 31, 2000.

 

[forkyfork]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Earliest 78° low on record for Topeka, Kansas by over 3 weeks.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
138 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2022

...MONTHLY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT TOPEKA KS...

YESTERDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURE AT TOPEKA'S BILLARD AIRPORT WAS 78 
DEGREES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 
FOR MAY 10. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 75 DEGREES...SET IN 2011.

THIS ALSO SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE 
MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 DEGREES...SET ON MAY 25, 
1896...MAY 26, 2012...AND MAY 31, 2000.

 

 

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of those rare times with easterly flow lasting for 2 weeks. 
 

 

Killing the fishing currently 

[Rjay]

Fake corn dews

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Fake corn dews

they're like 6" tall right now

[Allsnow]

They stole our heatwave 

[Cfa]

77 here. See what a little bit of sun can do?

[Brian5671]

75 and sunny here-almost no wind for a change.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

They stole our heatwave 

don't worry

[Rjay]

47 minutes ago, Cfa said:

77 here. See what a little bit of sun can do?

Perfect weather. 

Forky and Allsnow wishing for some swamp ass.  

[Rtd208]

Another overperformer here temp wise.

Current temp is 77 here after a high of 78

[dmillz25]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has upper 80s for my wedding next weekend 

I’m getting married in July in the DR. Congrats bro!

[dmillz25]

55 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

don't worry

NW wind for the win?

[bluewave]

Another one of these famous  over the top warm ups  that have become so common in recent years. High of 82° in BTV today with record warmth possible in the coming days. 
 

CLIMATE...
Record daily high temperatures are possible on Thursday, Friday
and Saturday 5/12-14. Here are the current records at our 
climate sites:

Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
5/12   84|2004  82|2004  85|2004  86|1992  83|1956  84|1911
5/13   84|1985  82|1985  77|2011  83|1992  86|1985  84|2004
5/14   86|1961  85|1961  85|2004  87|2004  84|1961  83|2004

 

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

as soon as snow season is done bring on 78 degree lows

You can keep that swamp ass stuff down there in NJ. Thanx. 

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the 70s across much of the region. Across parts of the Midwest into Quebec, record temperatures were recorded. Records included:

Chicago: 90° (old record: 89°, 1982)
Indianapolis: 89° (tied record set in 1896)
Madison: 91° (old record: 85°, 1922, 1991, and 2011)
Milwaukee: 86° (tied record set in 1896 and tied in 1982 and 1987)
Peoria, IL: 93° (old record: 91°, 2011)
Quebec City: 81° (old record: 79°, 2005)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 73° (old record: 69°, 2005)
Rockford, IL: 94° (old record: 91°, 2011)
St. Louis: 94° (old record: 91°, 1914 and 2011)
Trois-Rivières, QC: 80° (old record: 79°, 2001)

Readings will generally rise into the 70s through the coming weekend. Coastal areas could be a bit cooler due to onshore breezes. However, record-challenging or record-breaking temperatures will stay to the north and west of the region.

Northern New England, including Burlington, could see near record or record warmth tomorrow through Saturday. There, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 80s.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +39.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.105 today. That surpassed the previously daily record high of +2.797, which was set in 1992.

On May 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.985 (RMM). The May 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.209 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 49% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1Besides the stout Niña, look at how strongly negative the PDO and PMM are. Given the strong -IOD expected, I wonder if we may see an unprecedented 3rd year strong La Niña event? 

 

It's looking quite impressive at present. FYI, yesterday's SOI figure of +40.77 set a new May record.

[psv88]

73 now, 75 earlier. Great late afternoon