May 2022

[doncat]

94° for 2nd straight  day.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Seemed like the sea breeze battle line was between the Southern State and Sunrise Highway for a while in Nassau/W Suffolk. Today it might surge north earlier? 

Yup although I saw some PWS indicating it hit 90 as far south as Valley Stream around 1 before the sea breeze came in.  As usual the western part of the south shore gets it later lol.

Weird thing is how did Shirley way out in Suffolk County hit 90, aren't they right on the water?

Never got anywhere close to 90 today-- what made it surge north earlier today?

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, CIK62 said:

For  Liberty Bell:       Compromise at 1:15pm.

Thanks thats right when I hit 90!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

94° for 2nd straight  day.

You guys get all the fun

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

124 is the highest so far in the Northern Hemisphere.

where was that Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The hottest parts of the region yesterday were Philly, NNJ, and Queens all reaching 95°+. Models did very well showing the maximum temperatures for the whole area in NJ. Some models did better showing the 90° readings near ISP. Most struggled with the heat in Central Queens showing too much cooling sea breeze in Corona, Queens.

The wind forecast at EWR was also very hard for the models to resolve. We were discussing this with Forky earlier in the thread. Models show too much onshore flow at Newark. All the models did very well showing the 60s to low 70s for the South Shore beaches.

More struggles for the NYC high temperature. This is a result of the tree growth blocking the sensor. But the raw model guidance doesn’t know that this is the case. So the NWS and several TV outlets went for a high of 93° which verified as 90°. This is in line with some of my posts in the climate change thread. The trees can shave off around 3° from the highs from what they should be out in the open in an area like the Great Lawn. Sometimes the difference can be a little higher or a little lower. This is probably a result of the moisture content in the vegetation. 
 

Monthly Data for May 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	98
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	95
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	95

 

Fresh Kills	95

Corona	95

 

Monthly Data for May 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
DE	GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95
PA	PHILADELPHIA INTL AP	WBAN	95

They struggled with Nassau County too it hit 90 here even on the south shore

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, tdp146 said:

90.1 was my high. Pretty good for being about 3 miles from the bay. For a brief period as the sea breeze was starting, my dew point hit 75.5 with a temp of 89.2 for heat index of 100. 

wow you must have some great sensors!  I was glad we hit 90 right before the sea breeze hit too.  Not all parts of the south shore are the same

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Models were overdone (other than the GFS maybe) as usual with how fast/cool the sea breeze would make the N Shore. I’ve found that to be the case many times since I moved to Huntington. 

Knowing our local climate helps in knowing it could hit 90 even on the south shore before the sea breeze comes in.  The sea breeze usually comes in after 1 PM and we usually rise quicker than the city does before that happens.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, Cfa said:

90 here.

In Islip? It was cooler today here but more humid

Cant use the word "cool" to describe this though lol I turned my A/C on earlier because it was more uncomfortable than yesterday was.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

This month is on track to finish as one of the most persistent onshore flow Mays. High pressure has been dominating in New England all month. The warm up this weekend favored areas away from immediate sea breeze for the highest temperatures.

This week will feature a return of high pressure to our north and easterly flow. Next surge of warmth looks to be on track for around Memorial Day. It could be an over the top warm up with higher temperatures in New England. But small details like that are tough to work out too far in advance. 

Models have a round of blocking in early June. So the next warm up at the end of May will get pushback from high pressure to our north again. Similar to what we have been experiencing recently. 
 

May pressure pattern

Forecasts into early June

 

 

Didn't we have a very dry May?  Humidity was in the single digits for awhile.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Cfa said:

Down to 87 after a high of 93.

wow you must've been away from the sea breeze today

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 95 here.

Current temp 74/DP 63/DP 70%

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

where was that Don?

 

Jacobobad, Pakistan.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and noticeably cooler. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 74°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 77°

Cool weather will persist through Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.1°; 15-Year: 73.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 74.4°; 15-Year: 75.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.2°; 15-Year: 76.9°

[CIK62]

The  next days are averaging 68degs. (61/74) or +1.

Month to date is  62.3[+0.3].      Should be 63.8[+0.5] by the 31st.

Reached 84 here yesterday then fell to 70's and came back late.

Today: 70-74, wind n. to e., variable clouds then overcast by sunset, 58 tomorrow AM.

Next T outburst about June 01, give or take a day.

62*(63%RH) here at 7am.       68* at Noon.       74* at 3pm.       77* at 4pm.     Reached 78* at 4:30pm.      75* at 6pm.       66* at 11pm.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't we have a very dry May?  Humidity was in the single digits for awhile.

The dew points have been running above average with the persistent onshore flow. It has also kept our departures cooler than New England. The stronger high pressure to our north has allowed for higher departures in New England. This has become a common theme in recent years with more over the top warmth. The forecast for  the rest of this month is similar.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=may&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Warmer in New England this month

BTV….+4.2

BDL….+3.7

EWR….+2.1……further inland from the marine influence near the coast

NYC….+0.3

LGA….-0.1…..cool easterly flow off the Long Island sound 

 

 

Forecast for the rest of the month more of the same

[the_other_guy]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The dew points have been running above average with the persistent onshore flow. It has also kept our departures cooler than New England. The stronger high pressure to our north has allowed for higher departures in New England. This has become a common theme in recent years with more over the top warmth. The forecast for  the rest of this month is similar.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=may&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

Warmer in New England this month

BTV….+4.2

BDL….+3.7

EWR….+2.1……further inland from the marine influence near the coast

NYC….+0.3

LGA….-0.1…..cool easterly flow off the Long Island sound 

 

 

Forecast for the rest of the month more of the same

It is the depth of the warmth in the North Country that is amazing.

 

Mountain Climates running 3-5 degrees above normal changes the whole dynamic for plants/animals etc. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

It is the depth of the warmth in the North Country that is amazing.

 

Mountain Climates running 3-5 degrees above normal changes the whole dynamic for plants/animals etc. 

These over the top type warm ups have become very common in recent years. It has allowed Concord, New Hampshire to pull ahead of Newark for the the first 90° day of the year. The average first 90° of the season at Concord has moved up from June 5th in 1981 to May 17th in 2022. Newark has remained nearly unchanged at May 21st in 1981 and May 20th in 2022.

 

[SACRUS]

Today looking a bit better than initially forecast with more partly sunny obs for the brunt of the day, ahead of clouds later this evening.  Cooler week ahead with more clouds than sunshine but not much rain through Thu.  Warmer but likely wetter by the start of the long weekend Fri (27th) and Sat (28th), then Euro and GFS diverge for the second half of the weekend.

The Euro build the ridge and brings the warmth/heat by Sun (29th) and Memorial Day (30th) with a more SW flow vs GFS with a bit of a cut off and onshore / wetter flow into Sun and maybe Memorial day.  Will need to watch and see if the more onshore seasonal tendency trends on the latest model runs or if we see stronger ridge into EC.

 

[Rjay]

Nice morning.  62/49. 

[the_other_guy]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These over the top type warm ups have become very common in recent years. It has allowed Concord, New Hampshire to pull ahead of Newark for the the first 90° day of the year. The average first 90° of the season at Concord has moved up from June 5th in 1981 to May 17th in 2022. Newark has remained nearly unchanged at May 21st in 1981 and May 20th in 2022.

 

And this is from a persistent on shore flow which moderates coastal and adjacent areas but does nothing for inland areas?

 

Very interesting

[Stormlover74]

Let's hope the gfs is wrong for next weekend

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

And this is from a persistent on shore flow which moderates coastal and adjacent areas but does nothing for inland areas?

 

Very interesting

Yeah, the expansion of the ridge into New England allows warmer S to W flow away from the immediate shore. We have the cooler onshore flow influence. It’s exaggerated in May since the SSTs are still so cold.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=71&network=VT_ASOS&zstation=BTV&year=2022&month=5&units=MPH&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[Allsnow]

59 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's hope the gfs is wrong for next weekend

It will be….just think of it like it’s the only model showing a snowstorm 7 days out in January 

[forkyfork]

i wonder if that will trend so cut off we eventually get over the top ridging 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's hope the gfs is wrong for next weekend

yep that is ugly but we have 5 days to work on it LOL

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

These over the top type warm ups have become very common in recent years. It has allowed Concord, New Hampshire to pull ahead of Newark for the the first 90° day of the year. The average first 90° of the season at Concord has moved up from June 5th in 1981 to May 17th in 2022. Newark has remained nearly unchanged at May 21st in 1981 and May 20th in 2022.

 

Is this an extension of the climate warming the most the further north you are that started with the Arctic warming?  If so doesn't that mean the warming begins from the "top" down"-- that is the most extreme warmth will be the further north you go-- I believe this was well predicted by the climate models.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the expansion of the ridge into New England allows warmer S to W flow away from the immediate shore. We have the cooler onshore flow influence. It’s exaggerated in May since the SSTs are still so cold.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=71&network=VT_ASOS&zstation=BTV&year=2022&month=5&units=MPH&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

why are the SST so cold this year--- cold spring?

 

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Unfortunately, the 6z Euro joined the GFS and GEM with the low cutting off later in the week. But the day to day details for next weekend probably will have to wait. 

6z Euro

0z Euro

 

That fits the theme so far this spring. If so then it won't be the best memorial day weekend

Personally it doesn't bother me since I don't consider it the start of summer. Now July 4th weekend would be another story. 

[winterwx21]

Unlike the GFS, the 12z GGEM at least gets the wet weather out of the way in time for sunday. Hopefully we'll have decent weather for cookouts sunday and monday, but it'll be awhile before we know the holiday weekend details as bluewave said.