uncle W Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if somebody in NJ can record their first 100° day in May on Saturday. Models have 850 mb temperatures around +21 C. This is about as high as we ever saw the 850s this early in the season.The temperature differential between low 70s in Long Beach and upper 90s to near 100° in NJ is as extreme as it gets. the temperature in NYC was 99 on May 19th 1962 after a very cool first half of the month...the temp was 96 on May 20th 1996 after a cool start to the month...both times it was the warmest temperature for the year with three days 89 or higher...it can get hot fast and hit 100 especially in todays environment... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Jesus this is gonna hit people hard. Just what so many don’t need with energy prices through the roof. Luckily I’m directly on the water on south shore LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: nice. keep that cool air well to our west Let’s start pumping water temps too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Newark NJ benchmark record highs... 72 on 1/06/2007... 74 on 1/26/1950... 80 on 2/21/2018... 82 on 3/09/2016 86 on 3/13/1990... 87 on 3/28/1945... 89 on 3/29/1945... 92 on 4/07/2010... 97 on 4/17/2002... 98 on 5/19/1962... 99 on 5/20/1996... 102 on 6/09/2011... 103 on 6/30/2021... 105 on 7/03/1966... 108 on 7/22/2011... 105 on 9/02/1953... 100 on 9/03/1993... 99 on 9/11/1983... 96 on 10/02/2019... 93 on 10/05/1941... 92 on 10/10/1949... 90 on 10/17/1938... 87 on 10/23/1947... 85 on 11/01/1950... 84 on 11/02/1950... 81 on 11/03/2003... 80 on 11/15/1993... 76 on 12/07/1998... 72 on 12/10/1946... 71 on 12/29/1984... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s start pumping water temps too These strong southerly flow days will do that quick. There’ll likely be an Ambrose Jet with 30+ mph gusts with that kind of contrast and cool temps on the south shore. Like two different worlds vs. Newark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s start pumping water temps too nice comfortable temps to start next week in the northeast... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 74 here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 43 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Just what so many don’t need with energy prices through the roof. Luckily I’m directly on the water on south shore LI Eventually with enough onshore wind days building up the water temps, the seabreeze won’t cool it down after another month or so. It’ll keep temps down a little but pump the humidity up. So if anything it might feel hotter near the shore vs inland because of the higher dew points which are becoming much more common the last few summers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 At this point my projected high on Saturday is 86. The beginning of next week has highs only in the upper 60s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS continues the warmer SE Ridge pattern right into early June. Welcome to summer. 80s will be the norm but 90F+ days will be around too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2022 Author Share Posted May 18, 2022 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Welcome to summer. 80s will be the norm but 90F+ days will be around too People will be able to save money now since they won’t have to pay for weather model subscriptions to access the long range EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Eventually with enough onshore wind days building up the water temps, the seabreeze won’t cool it down after another month or so. It’ll keep temps down a little but pump the humidity up. So if anything it might feel hotter near the shore vs inland because of the higher dew points which are becoming much more common the last few summers. Agree, but I’ll take what I can. Even if that means losing beach days to the June gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 radar looks healthy for tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Showers and periods of rain are likely overnight into early tomorrow. Clouds will break later tomorrow and readings will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +15.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.613 today. On May 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The May 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Record May max temp at Philadelphia is 97 set during the epic 1991 torch. Heat came early & often that year, (21) 90 days before the start of calendar summer. (5) of those days were 95+ & (1) 100 day for good measure. Since 1990 the avearge date of the 1st 90 at PHL is 5/23, 1st 95 average date is 6/26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Check back Monday and see how your favorite model made out. As of latest runs available this evening. Some color to go with the forecasts. For the GFS: Looks like 20*C+ briefly for the 850mb T: Sat/Sun GFS 98,96 CMC 95,93 NDFD 92,90 NBM 91,89 ICON 88,89 EURO 87,74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 56 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Check back Monday and see how your favorite model made out. As of latest runs available this evening. Some color to go with the forecasts. For the GFS: Looks like 20*C+ briefly for the 850mb T: Sat/Sun GFS 98,96 CMC 95,93 NDFD 92,90 NBM 91,89 ICON 88,89 EURO 87,74 The Euro is psycho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Mets playing in Denver this weekend. It's going to be 60 degrees warmer here on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 This weekend looks like a scorcher but it is interesting to note the differences in temperature on the 00Z 5/19 NAM FOUS as of 12Z Saturday with PHL being the hottest BTV the second hottest, then ALB, then LGA with BOS being the coolest. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 20 hours ago, bluewave said: Why can’t we take it seriously? It reached 102° at the end of June in Corona Queens. So the 103° at Newark reflected it being a degree warmer in NE NJ than Queens. That's a built up highly urban area. You literally can't breathe the air there because everything is so clustered together and so polluted. Asthma rates through the roof in that part of Queens too, I think it has the highest asthma rates in the entire country. It's not a "natural" environment to live in. Not to mention that 100+ is extremely rare in the city, the last time it legitimately happened was back in our extremely hot summer of 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 19 hours ago, bluewave said: The GEM has the most extreme temperature gradient of all. Strong sea breeze and cooler temperatures east of the Hudson. Has highs of 95-100° in NJ. I highly doubt it's that extreme. Looks like Central Park is forecast to reach 90 both days of the weekend, and we'll probably get to 80 near JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 15 hours ago, forkyfork said: fingers crossed That's what I think it likely too, near 100 over interior NJ, low 90s in NYC and low 80s on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 12 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if somebody in NJ can record their first 100° day in May on Saturday. Models have 850 mb temperatures around +21 C. This is about as high as we ever saw the 850s this early in the season.The temperature differential between low 70s in Long Beach and upper 90s to near 100° in NJ is as extreme as it gets. How is this different from May 1996? It was about that extreme then too. And what about the April 2002 heatwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Morning thoughts… Rain will end this morning. The clouds will break from west to east this afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania will see temperatures top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 78° The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 72.1°; 15-Year: 72.9° Newark: 30-Year: 73.4°; 15-Year: 74.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.2°; 15-Year: 75.8° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 53 here as of 6AM, hopefully this rain will knock down the pollen count. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(62/83) or +7. Month to date is 60.7[-0.8]. Should be 64.2[+1.6] by the 27th. Reached 69 here yesterday. Today: 63-67, wind s. to n.w.,rain early, m. cloudy with breaks?, 62* tomorrow AM. Possible high T ranges for the weekend: Sat. Sun. 92-99 89-91 Deduct 10 to 20 degrees if you are near JFK, or in a similar environment. 56*(96%RH) here at 7am{was 55 at 6am.} 59* at Noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 Picked up 1.21" of rain so far today. Current temp 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Picked up 1.21" of rain so far today. Current temp 54 I got exactly the same, 1.21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: You have to remember the resolution of those forecast maps is very coarse. So we post them for approximations of where the warmest and coolest temperatures will be found. That’s why the NWS generates MOS numbers to correct some of those biases. But the MOS can also struggle with extreme events like Saturday. So we use past experience with the similar 850 mb temperatures and wind directions. The 850 mb temperatures will be near the all-time May highs in this area around +21 to +22 C. This would support upper 90s to near 100° In NJ away from the sea breeze. Then we try to figure out how the sea breeze will influence the highs further east. Long Beach may be in the 70s while Commack is getting close to 90°. JFK would probably be in between those readings into the 80s. The Central Park temperatures need to factor in the wind direction and the dense vegetation around the sensor. The models don’t know that the sensor is in the deep shade. So the forecast highs are usually warm biased. It could be one of those situations where the models have low 90s but the high gets stuck in the upper 80s. Especially if the flow stays SSE. But more SSW flow could make it to 90°. NYC has been famous for upper 80s while surrounding areas record 90s. Thanks Chris, so would you say this event would be roughly comparable to May 1996, like the April 2002 extreme heat was comparable to April 1976? Interesting that 2002 had the much hotter summer-- one of our hottest as a matter of fact! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 19, 2022 Share Posted May 19, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: You have to remember the resolution of those forecast maps is very coarse. So we post them for approximations of where the warmest and coolest temperatures will be found. That’s why the NWS generates MOS numbers to correct some of those biases. But the MOS can also struggle with extreme events like Saturday. So we use past experience with the similar 850 mb temperatures and wind directions. The 850 mb temperatures will be near the all-time May highs in this area around +21 to +22 C. This would support upper 90s to near 100° In NJ away from the sea breeze. Then we try to figure out how the sea breeze will influence the highs further east. Long Beach may be in the 70s while Commack is getting close to 90°. JFK would probably be in between those readings into the 80s. The Central Park temperatures need to factor in the wind direction and the dense vegetation around the sensor. The models don’t know that the sensor is in the deep shade. So the forecast highs are usually warm biased. It could be one of those situations where the models have low 90s but the high gets stuck in the upper 80s. Especially if the flow stays SSE. But more SSW flow could make it to 90°. NYC has been famous for upper 80s while surrounding areas record 90s. Didn't we have something like this in April 2010, the day we had our earliest 90 degree reading....NYC reached 92 while JFK hit 89 and Long Beach was only in the upper 60s? The models underdid that heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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