bluewave Posted May 9, 2022 Author Share Posted May 9, 2022 I wonder what our record is for consecutive days with an easterly component to the wind? The easterlies began back on Friday. The models all continue the easterly flow into next weekend as the cutoff gets stuck under the near record 588 dm block over New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 17 hours ago, forkyfork said: people actually look at forecasts instead of using the models and making their own? according to the marketing for the forecasts, they use a "custom blend of in house models not available to the general public for enhanced accuracy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 15 hours ago, bluewave said: Temperatures finally getting back closer to normal this week into next weekend. Looks like a mix of 60s some days and 70s on the warmer days around NYC . The cutoff low stalling to our south will maintain the onshore flow. How long does it take a storm to "die" or dissipate if it doesn't move at all? 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2022 Author Share Posted May 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How long does it take a storm to "die" or dissipate if it doesn't move at all? 10 days? It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. What a surprise Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 It does look sunny many of the days this week so I'll take that with temps 65-70 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. That's bad for the eclipse! And it sounds like the month will end up below normal. Is this how nature balances the scales after we get a mild winter? Seems to happen quite often. Also, how is it this kind of thing almost never happens in winter? At least I don't ever remember this ever happening in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: It does look sunny many of the days this week so I'll take that with temps 65-70 I'd rather have good weather for that eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: It does look sunny many of the days this week so I'll take that with temps 65-70 does not feel like 65-70 feels like the 50's with the cool dry air.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, nycwinter said: does not feel like 65-70 feels like the 50's with the cool dry air.... That's because it's in the 50s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: That's because it's in the 50s 60 right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 Not often RH stays in the 25 percent range with a persistent NE wind. Temp up to 61 from a morning low of 47 at my station. Strong May sun doing its work. Imagine how warm we would be if the wind was NW-W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s going to come back north next weekend into the following week with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. So it eventually weakens the block to the north. This allows another trough to park over the Northeast by day 8-10. Personally, I'm so done with this pattern. Bring back the cool weather in the Fall and send us into the deep freezer during the winter, but give it a rest until then! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 5 hours ago, tek1972 said: What a surprise Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Temperatures will still likely end up a tad AN during next couple weeks so mid to upper 70s. Perfectly beautiful mid-late May weather. The summer heat can wait till it's actually summer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 70 degrees here. Perfect spring weather this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 66 feels like 95 especially after the crap we had the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2022 Author Share Posted May 9, 2022 Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures. EPS May 9-16 May 16-23 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures. That's actually not as bad as I thought it would be. I'd be happy with some sunny skies and seasonable May temps. Keep a lid on the cold, damp, stuff until autumn though haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2022 Author Share Posted May 9, 2022 47 minutes ago, Eduardo said: That's actually not as bad as I thought it would be. I'd be happy with some sunny skies and seasonable May temps. Keep a lid on the cold, damp, stuff until autumn though haha. The wildcard this summer may be how the rare continuation of the La Niña into a 3rd year plays out. We already had 4 consecutive above normal summers for warmth since 2018. Maybe we can catch a break on the heat relative to the last several years. But cooler summers have been tough to come by since 2010. Even less warm would feel cool compared to all the record summer heat since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted May 9, 2022 Share Posted May 9, 2022 jesus it’s dry i need chapstick for this shit 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 33 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: jesus it’s dry i need chapstick for this shit this cool dry weather causes little nicks in my skin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The wildcard this summer may be how the rare continuation of the La Niña into a 3rd year plays out. We already had 4 consecutive above normal summers for warmth since 2018. Maybe we can catch a break on the heat relative to the last several years. But cooler summers have been tough to come by since 2010. Even less warm would feel cool compared to all the record summer heat since 2010. the summer of 2000 was the last third consecutive la nina summer...1975, 1956 and 1910 were others...not one of them were hot... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 90 degree days for Newark NJ since 1933...for recent years 2014 and 2017 had less than average 90 degree days... year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days... 1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1 1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1 1935.....14...…...3...….96 1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2 1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1938.....18...…...3...….95 1939.....24...…...3......95 1940.....15...…...5......99 1941.....27...…...4......97 1942.....15...…...2......98 1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2 1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4 1945.....24...…...5...….99 1946.....11...…...3......95 1947.....22...…...4......99 1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2 1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8 1950.....18...…...4...….98 1951.....18...…...3...….96 1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1 1953.....32...….11.....105.....6 1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2 1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4 1956.....14...…...5...….99 1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1 1958.....21...…...3...….96 1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1 1960.....13...…...4...….94 1961.....34...…...4...….98 1962.....14...…...4...….98 1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1 1964.....26...…...4...….99 1965.....26...…...4...….97 1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5 1967...….7...…...3...….95 1968.....23...…...4...….98 1969.....15...…...3...….96 1970.....22...…...5...….94 1971.....22...…...5...….96 1972.....21...….12...….96 1973.....31...….11.....100.....1 1974.....18...…...4...….98 1975.....12...…...4...….98 1976.....14...…...3...….93 1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2 1978.....16...…...5...….98 1979.....20...…...5...….96 1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2 1981.....21...…...8...….98 1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1 1983.....40...…...7...….99 1984.....22...…...5...….97 1985.....11...…...3...….97 1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1987.....37...…...8...….98 1988.....43...….20.....101.....5 1989.....27...…...6...….99 1990.....26...…...4...….98 1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2 1992.....22...…...3...….98 1993.....49...….10.....105.....9 1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2 1995.....33...….12.....104.....1 1996...….9...…...3...….99 1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2 1998.....21...…...4...….98 1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3 2000.....16...…...4...….96 2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3 2002.....41...….10.....100.....2 2003.....20...…...5...….95 2004.....13...…...2...….97 2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3 2006.....31...….10.....101.....3 2007.....21...…...4...….97 2008.....22...…...7...….99 2009.....11...…...7...….95 2010.....54...….14.....103.....4 2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4 2012.....33...….11.....104.....3 2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2 2014.....15...…...3...….96 2015.....35...…...9...….98 2016.....40...…...8...….99 2017.....22...…...4...….99 2018.....36...…...6...….98 2019.....27...…...4...….99... 2020.....31.........6......96... 2021.....45.........5....103.....2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 I love heat however I’ll trade it for a dryer summer. Please I don’t want another 15-20” of rain JJA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Readings will again rise into the 60s tomorrow and then mainly in the 70s through the remainder of the week. Northern New England, including Burlington, could ultimately see near record to record warm temperatures Thursday through Saturday. There, temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 80s. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 3°-5° below normal with a few colder spots. The second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +34.57 today. That was the highest reading since December 26, 2021 when the SOI was +46.71. It was the highest May figure since May 16, 2013 when the SOI reached +35.64. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.265 today. On May 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.478 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.570 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 49% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: jesus it’s dry i need chapstick for this shit Good evening Will. I’ll wait for your lips to heal; I should, by that time, work up enough courage to ask about the 2 for 1 special. Stay well and hydrated, as always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 11 hours ago, weathermedic said: Not often RH stays in the 25 percent range with a persistent NE wind. Temp up to 61 from a morning low of 47 at my station. Strong May sun doing its work. Imagine how warm we would be if the wind was NW-W. love the low humidity, I could work with this all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, dave0176 said: I love heat however I’ll trade it for a dryer summer. Please I don’t want another 15-20” of rain JJA I want the best of both... a dry heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 1 hour ago, uncle W said: 90 degree days for Newark NJ since 1933...for recent years 2014 and 2017 had less than average 90 degree days... year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days... 1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1 1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1 1935.....14...…...3...….96 1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2 1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1938.....18...…...3...….95 1939.....24...…...3......95 1940.....15...…...5......99 1941.....27...…...4......97 1942.....15...…...2......98 1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2 1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4 1945.....24...…...5...….99 1946.....11...…...3......95 1947.....22...…...4......99 1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2 1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8 1950.....18...…...4...….98 1951.....18...…...3...….96 1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1 1953.....32...….11.....105.....6 1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2 1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4 1956.....14...…...5...….99 1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1 1958.....21...…...3...….96 1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1 1960.....13...…...4...….94 1961.....34...…...4...….98 1962.....14...…...4...….98 1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1 1964.....26...…...4...….99 1965.....26...…...4...….97 1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5 1967...….7...…...3...….95 1968.....23...…...4...….98 1969.....15...…...3...….96 1970.....22...…...5...….94 1971.....22...…...5...….96 1972.....21...….12...….96 1973.....31...….11.....100.....1 1974.....18...…...4...….98 1975.....12...…...4...….98 1976.....14...…...3...….93 1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2 1978.....16...…...5...….98 1979.....20...…...5...….96 1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2 1981.....21...…...8...….98 1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1 1983.....40...…...7...….99 1984.....22...…...5...….97 1985.....11...…...3...….97 1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1987.....37...…...8...….98 1988.....43...….20.....101.....5 1989.....27...…...6...….99 1990.....26...…...4...….98 1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2 1992.....22...…...3...….98 1993.....49...….10.....105.....9 1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2 1995.....33...….12.....104.....1 1996...….9...…...3...….99 1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2 1998.....21...…...4...….98 1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3 2000.....16...…...4...….96 2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3 2002.....41...….10.....100.....2 2003.....20...…...5...….95 2004.....13...…...2...….97 2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3 2006.....31...….10.....101.....3 2007.....21...…...4...….97 2008.....22...…...7...….99 2009.....11...…...7...….95 2010.....54...….14.....103.....4 2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4 2012.....33...….11.....104.....3 2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2 2014.....15...…...3...….96 2015.....35...…...9...….98 2016.....40...…...8...….99 2017.....22...…...4...….99 2018.....36...…...6...….98 2019.....27...…...4...….99... 2020.....31.........6......96... 2021.....45.........5....103.....2 I love this! Can you do one just like this for JFK please with the same 4 columns included? How far back does their temperature record go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Very comfortable spring temperatures for our area the next few weeks. The record breaking heat stays to our north and west this week. Then the trough returns next week with cooler to near seasonable temperatures. EPS May 9-16 May 16-23 record breaking heat in Texas too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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