nycwinter Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 i am loving this cool may weather ! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Some chatter out there about a possible tropical low developing in the Atlantic next week: https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1521538363106471941?s=20&t=RA2iZe897rOAe7xSAJpJqQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 The La Niña background state keeps getting stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Friday-Saturday look pretty nasty. Could be low 50s (maybe even 40s) on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Actually, the thing was the Dec 2010 -PNA (300dm vs 230dm#2nd place since 1948), which we then moved warmer for 5 straight years from. Dec 2021 hit 330dm for -PNA, breaking 2010's #1. 330,300,(since1948,230..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Friday-Saturday look pretty nasty. Could be low 50s (maybe even 40s) on Saturday. Mother's day 2008 redux on the models. Northern extent of precip still up in the air though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 Figures that the slowest moving cutoff nor’easter of the year waited until May. Euro has a general 1-2” of rain with localized higher amounts where the best banding sets up. Most of the rain falls from Friday night into Saturday with easterly gales and low 50s. The gales continue into Tuesday with periods of patchy drizzle near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Yay! Plus side for MBY is no swimming pool activity this weekend for my super noisy neighbor and their kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 4, 2022 Author Share Posted May 4, 2022 This may set a new record for the thinnest 591 dm ridge over New England with a cutoff stuck underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 Nice temp rise over the last couple of hours. Picked up 0.16" of rain for the day Current temp 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Friday-Saturday look pretty nasty. Could be low 50s (maybe even 40s) on Saturday. And it will generally stay that way until the trough NE of us/blocking can finally go away. On the latest Euro there's an easterly component to the wind essentially through the entire run. Maritime garbage on top of trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Nice temp rise over the last couple of hours. Picked up 0.16" of rain for the day Current temp 66 Sun just starting to come thru here. 0.14” here so far, temp currently 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted May 4, 2022 Share Posted May 4, 2022 I got a feeling that cut off will screw us next week. Mid 70s+ next week looking less likely 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 For anyone interested, Live Fox weather channel, channel 5.3 on my tv, just had incredible helicopter live footage of a bad tornado in the Seminole Oklahoma area. Now they are showing the damage that just took place. This station has live views from storm chasers showing different tornadoes as they are happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 With the frontal boundary having pushed northward, tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. Temperatures will rise into the 70s in much of the region before cooler air again returns. A coastal storm could bring rain, gusty winds, and cool temperatures to the region later Friday into Saturday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall appears likely. The temperature could rise no higher than the lower 50s on Saturday. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal. During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as had been the case this year. However, the blocking has now come to an end. Following such blocking cases, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The breakdown of blocking increases prospects for a warmer second half of the month and an overall warm monthly outcome. Some of the long-range guidance suggests that a dramatic and sustained shift to a warmer regime could develop after May 10. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +11.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.607 today. On May 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.194 (RMM). The May 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.319 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Nam has a ton of rain lasting into Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Both the 00z GFS & NAM are much wetter for this weekend with rainfall amounts of 2-3" w/locally higher amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 The over top ridging is insane on the gfs. I've never seen anything like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The over top ridging is insane on the gfs. I've never seen anything like it. Really hoping it's somehow wrong. It has days of easterly garbage around the cutoff low vomited into our region but a nice warmup for NNE, maybe even north of there. Unfortunately it has support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Friday-Saturday look pretty nasty. Could be low 50s (maybe even 40s) on Saturday. and thats the end of the bad weather, looks like nothing but sun and fun after that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Really hoping it's somehow wrong. It has days of easterly garbage around the cutoff low vomited into our region but a nice warmup for NNE, maybe even north of there. Unfortunately it has support. huh every forecast I looked has nothing but sunshine after that storm leaves on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 7 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said: I got a feeling that cut off will screw us next week. Mid 70s+ next week looking less likely there is no forecast showing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 8 hours ago, jm1220 said: And it will generally stay that way until the trough NE of us/blocking can finally go away. On the latest Euro there's an easterly component to the wind essentially through the entire run. Maritime garbage on top of trash. but none of our local forecasts show that so it's likely just an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 12 hours ago, bluewave said: Figures that the slowest moving cutoff nor’easter of the year waited until May. Euro has a general 1-2” of rain with localized higher amounts where the best banding sets up. Most of the rain falls from Friday night into Saturday with easterly gales and low 50s. The gales continue into Tuesday with periods of patchy drizzle near the coast. from the forecasts I've seen it will be windy on Sunday but sunny and just sunshine after that as the high pressure will push the storm to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 The 06z GFS is an absolute soaker for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 51 here as of 6AM. Reached 61 for a high yesterday. Temps expected to be near 70 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 72° Cooler air will begin to return tomorrow and showers and rain associated with a developing storm will arrive during the afternoon or evening. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 68.7°; 15-Year: 69.4° Newark: 30-Year: 69.6°; 15-Year: 70.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.5°; 15-Year: 72.0° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(49/65) or -4. Reached 69 here yesterday by 5pm. Today: 67-73, wind n. to ne., variable skies, 53 tomorrow AM. All models have 2"-3" over the next 10 days.......but the CMC/GFS do it by next Monday AM---with little additional after. EURO spreads it out. GFS Wind Gusts---strongest Sat. PM---not fully calm till Tues AM. Rain totals by Sun AM.........and then nothing for another 8 days. May 13-18 still looking{GFS} AN+. 59*(74%RH) here at 7am. 65* at Noon. Got stuck at 66* during the afternoon and sea breeze wins.....63* at 4:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted May 5, 2022 Share Posted May 5, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: from the forecasts I've seen it will be windy on Sunday but sunny and just sunshine after that as the high pressure will push the storm to our south Forecasts now do show a 50% chance of rain on Sunday. Also, what used to be a forecast of mid to upper 70s next Wed-Sat is now low 70s (with a max of 74 on Sat). Meanwhile places like Montreal/Ottawa will be in the 80s! I'm not complaining about low 70s but hope it doesn't drop further into the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 5, 2022 Author Share Posted May 5, 2022 On 5/5/2022 at 6:45 AM, ILoveWinter said: Forecasts now do show a 50% chance of rain on Sunday. Also, what used to be a forecast of mid to upper 70s next Wed-Sat is now low 70s (with a max of 74 on Sat). Meanwhile places like Montreal/Ottawa will be in the 80s! I'm not complaining about low 70s but hope it doesn't drop further into the 60s. Yeah, the Euro,GEM, NAM, and RGEM have really slowed the progress of the cutoff low. So several models now have 2.00+ for the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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