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12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010


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The JMA drank the same koolade the GFS did...

http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif

Reading over some of the weird responses from some posters regarding what HPC said, I cant say I agree with the people who are showing anger/frustration. The weather will do what it wants to do, regardless of what HPC or anyone else says. It doesnt really make any logical sense to spout venom at anyone because its not like HPC can shove it east by what they say. Weather control is probably still a couple of hundred years away :P

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IMO, the shift on the 12z GFS was so dramatic that it makes sense to be cautious. In seeking explanations for what accounted for the shift, initialization is one plausible area to look. That does not mean that such errors mainly or completely accounted for the situation, though they could have pushed the model to a more extreme situation even in the face of a real trend toward a deeper, closer solution. That 3 of the last 4 runs of the GFS have been closer to the coast suggests that at least part of the shift is a real trend. The 12z ECMWF's outcome will be interesting. Hence, as one waits to see if the later guidance reaffirms the 12z GFS, one probably should err on the side of continuity, maybe nudging things just a little to the left.

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Guest someguy

Like I'm going to trust this model now.

lets review

you thinks its terrible of HPC to catch bad and alert people

and now the euro which you loved earlier .... now you dont?

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Guest someguy

Well I don't know about the rest of you, but that's all I needed to see.

Merry Christmas to all in spite of the latest storm miss to the east.

yeah its over

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yeah its over

hey dt you are prob 1000000% correct, but dont you think the way this storm has been so far on the models, thats a pretty bold call to say yes its over??? I mean just the other day its looked like a blizzard then the models surprised everyone and went ots, now the gfs today brings it back, and all the esembles agree, yes their were some errors, but no guarentees it caused the storm to become a hit.

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I'm discouning the euro. I'm riding the Gfs/jma. Deadly combination

Shades of Feb 2006?

Meh, Im witholding making any decisions until 0z tonight, but it doesnt look very good right now. I'd put the chances of the 12z GFS verifying at like 5% lol.

0z runs are around 48 hrs before the start of the "storm" and models often lock in at that point, though with this complex pattern who knows. Besides, you never know, we might get a Christmas present from Mother Nature this year :)

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Difference now is that we are within 48 - 60 hours of the event. Not saying it can't change but drastic changes are not likely within this range. Too much stacked against us!

hey dt you are prob 1000000% correct, but dont you think the way this storm has been so far on the models, thats a pretty bold call to say yes its over??? I mean just the other day its looked like a blizzard then the models surprised everyone and went ots, now the gfs today brings it back, and all the esembles agree, yes their were some errors, but no guarentees it caused the storm to become a hit.

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ok lets review

Showing no storm we have

NAM

UKMET

RGEM

GGEM

SREFS

Showing a storm we have

GFS which was confirmed to have errors

Please step away from your wishes for a minute before making a logic based choice.

That's not necessarily true. The NAM does show accumulating snow for most, just not a huge storm like the GFS.

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