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12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010


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Being Christmas weekend and all those traveling, I would say this solution ends up pretty historic. (if it were to verify)

really not far off from a compete coastal BOMB.

wont be historic folks but lets not get too caught up in that anymore.

EDIT: we're talking 2.0 qpf JUST off the coastline for NJ/CT/LI etc.

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Ji, you are actually right the GFS winds it up a little tight and it may still be adjusting, wait and see what happens in the next few runs. Also I am surprised nobody pointed out how the NAM had a good H5, H7, and great H8 track but yet was totally disconnected at the surface. I got up late and looked at that first and was like....what...that looks fishy. Pun intended. With the exact track of the GFS I would think DC gets decent snow, SECS maybe...but all it would take is on more adjustment west and you will be happy. Still a long way to go.

i dont buy how east the precip is...with the 850 low in this position..this should be hammering DC and IAD

gfs_850_054m.gif

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Be skeptical of this solution... don't you all remember what happened with the great Euro runs of a few days ago.

There are many differences though. We are now entering the short-range and the chances of the 12z GFS verifying are much higher. I thought the euro "caved" to the GFS?

Just some food for thought, it really looked like the models just compromised but w/e.

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So, these dropsonde obs will make it into the 0Z runs?

CARCAH just updated...

000

NOUS42 KNHC 241615

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1115 AM EST FRI 24 DECEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z DECEMBER 2010

WSPOD NUMBER.....10-024

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71

A. A65/ DROP 14 (29.0N 89.0W)/ 26/0000Z

B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK65

C. 25/1545Z

D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED PLUS 4 ADDITIONAL

EQUALLY-SPACED ONES OVER GULF OF MEXICO

ON TRACK FOR A TOTAL OF 14.

E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/0200Z

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70

A. A64/ DROP 12 (30.3N 75.0W)/ 26/1200Z

B. AFXXX 06WSA TRACK64

C. 26/0515Z

D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS ADDITIONAL

ONES BETWEEN ORIGINAL DROPS 1 AND 2 AND

ORIGINAL DROPS 9 AND 10 FOR A TOTAL OF 12.

E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARK: TASKING REQUIREMENT IN WSPOD 10-023 NOW

CHANGED TO A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 25/1200Z WITH

TAKEOFF TIME OF 25/0700Z.

SEF

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From BOX

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS

* POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM

AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE

HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS

WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE

BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE

THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY

BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO

THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO

WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR

CHANGES.

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