Amped Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm in SW CT now visiting my parents BTW. Can't imagine we get 1' of snow in about 12hrs like the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Being Christmas weekend and all those traveling, I would say this solution ends up pretty historic. (if it were to verify) really not far off from a compete coastal BOMB. wont be historic folks but lets not get too caught up in that anymore. EDIT: we're talking 2.0 qpf JUST off the coastline for NJ/CT/LI etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 HUGE CHANGES on GGEM with plains feature. Much stronger on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z.. 24 hour forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Be skeptical of this solution... don't you all remember what happened with the great Euro runs of a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Maybe DT didn't screw the pooch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM better...but much further east than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Ji, you are actually right the GFS winds it up a little tight and it may still be adjusting, wait and see what happens in the next few runs. Also I am surprised nobody pointed out how the NAM had a good H5, H7, and great H8 track but yet was totally disconnected at the surface. I got up late and looked at that first and was like....what...that looks fishy. Pun intended. With the exact track of the GFS I would think DC gets decent snow, SECS maybe...but all it would take is on more adjustment west and you will be happy. Still a long way to go. i dont buy how east the precip is...with the 850 low in this position..this should be hammering DC and IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Be skeptical of this solution... don't you all remember what happened with the great Euro runs of a few days ago. There are many differences though. We are now entering the short-range and the chances of the 12z GFS verifying are much higher. I thought the euro "caved" to the GFS? Just some food for thought, it really looked like the models just compromised but w/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 There was a three month, almost daily missions over the Western Pacific from Japan by G-IV aircraft that later move to HI in March. There were also several C-130 missions out of Alaska as well. So, these dropsonde obs will make it into the 0Z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fws&product=N0R&loop=yes Check out the T-storms headed for Dallas/Ft. Worth; this system is very dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So, these dropsonde obs will make it into the 0Z runs? CARCAH just updated... 000 NOUS42 KNHC 241615 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EST FRI 24 DECEMBER 2010 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z DECEMBER 2010 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-024 ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A65/ DROP 14 (29.0N 89.0W)/ 26/0000Z B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK65 C. 25/1545Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED PLUS 4 ADDITIONAL EQUALLY-SPACED ONES OVER GULF OF MEXICO ON TRACK FOR A TOTAL OF 14. E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/0200Z FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70 A. A64/ DROP 12 (30.3N 75.0W)/ 26/1200Z B. AFXXX 06WSA TRACK64 C. 26/0515Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK PLUS ADDITIONAL ONES BETWEEN ORIGINAL DROPS 1 AND 2 AND ORIGINAL DROPS 9 AND 10 FOR A TOTAL OF 12. E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: TASKING REQUIREMENT IN WSPOD 10-023 NOW CHANGED TO A66/ DROP 10 (BOGGY)/ 25/1200Z WITH TAKEOFF TIME OF 25/0700Z. SEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 So, these dropsonde obs will make it into the 0Z runs? Their not scheduled till tomorrow morning I believe. So prolly tomorrow night 0z = yes. GGEM is inching westward.. a positive trend. But still east of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKMET still a miss, anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKMET still a miss, anyone confirm? Yes, but it's west. Precip grazes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The Feb 2006 storm was first caught by the jma and then the Gfs. It took the nam and euro 2 days to catch up. The 12z jma will be telling today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UKMET still a miss, anyone confirm? Yes - closer though, no longer near the Azores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 http://radar.weather...ct=N0R&loop=yes Check out the T-storms headed for Dallas/Ft. Worth; this system is very dynamic. Going by radar estimates GFS is kicking NAM's a** with that convective system. NAM only puts down about half of what has been estimated to have fallen. Very dynamic indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 ukie way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 speechless where do you get these detailed precip maps? link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Apparently the GFS ENS mean is an absolute bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The UKIE seems more on with central pressure than the GEM but the GFS is probably too strong...seeing the UKIE only be THAT far east is almost a guarantee this thing is coming west of what its showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ukie way east The UKMET has been so far east its not even funny, however it is certainly west of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGHLIGHTS * POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 if this is trhe mean i would love to see the western ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX That just ruined the party I would say. I wonder how serious these initialization errors were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX AFD: "WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX I hope those errors are favorable ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX AFD: "WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. " Ah crap, nothing like s*** on the fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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