12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010

[weathervswife]

OK, all the weenies should take 5 minutes to update their FB statuses and let's settle in for the rest of the 12z.. GGEM would have LOOOOOOOOOONG way to go to get close to this, so I will disregard that, but the Euro could easily show this outcome or more.

[poleshiftnow]

Just think we got like 6 more runs to go west some more. This might turn out to be like the monster the euro was showing a couple of days ago

[Ji]

i dont buy how east the precip is...with the 850 low in this position..this should be hammering DC and IAD

[mattb65]

This is way outside the ensemble guidance - not saying it's impossible but I think this run needs to be taken with a heavy grain of salt as I would expect it to be on the western side of possibilities. Not that it's impossible to happen but I'd say it's far from a likely solution at this point.

Having said that I'm not sure if anyone honestly expected to see a monster bomb like this come back after everything trended away from those HECS euro solutions so who knows.

[tcutter]

slightly earlier phase...or a slightly early negative tilt

also the big difference i am seeing is that at hour 42 the H5 closed low develops way back in the OH valley allowing downstream height field to be alot more conducive for a coastal track....i'd like to see this H5 closed low develop a bit further south...even at the same latitude for a trend to even further west

by hour 54 you have very diffluent flow over the low and hence the bomb....get that diffluent flow to develop a little further south based on a earlier transition to a negative tilt....maybe a bit further west...or at least you'd get a earlier bomb and better precip field in the lower MA (or mid MA...ie. No. VA / DC)

thanks.......i will look for this as the runs roll in today............either way...........Merry Christmas to all!!

[chris87]

I'm not sweating QPF placement...but you are right.

i dont buy how east the precip is...with the 850 low in this position..this should be hammering DC and IAD

[LakeEffectKing]

The first northern stream energy is a bit quicker to "get out of the way", and the second n. stream energy is a bit stronger, along with the s. stream being in a better position to phase in just a bit earlier, further westward....it's all very subtle but HUGE implications at even these shorter lead times.....

Should we just cut all models down to 3 day leads????? Would save alot of roller coaster rides!!!

[jlewis1111]

This is way outside the ensemble guidance - not saying it's impossible but I think this run needs to be taken with a heavy grain of salt as I would expect it to be on the western side of possibilities. Not that it's impossible to happen but I'd say it's far from a likely solution at this point.

Having said that I'm not sure if anyone honestly expected to see a monster bomb like this come back after everything trended away from those HECS euro solutions so who knows.

where are the 12z ens There not out yet so how could you make the statement that its outside the guidance

[mike2010]

this GFS run is just UNBELIEVABLE ! omg, I can't believe all the back & forths with this one..

i'm gonna need some medication after all this...

[Inudaw]

This is way outside the ensemble guidance - not saying it's impossible but I think this run needs to be taken with a heavy grain of salt as I would expect it to be on the western side of possibilities. Not that it's impossible to happen but I'd say it's far from a likely solution at this point.

Having said that I'm not sure if anyone honestly expected to see a monster bomb like this come back after everything trended away from those HECS euro solutions so who knows.

Have to see how the 12z gfes plus other global models pull this cycle as well. But it is further west than the last ensemble package would indicate. GFS is nice to look at. :X

[chris87]

it's great to see this trend in the short term...either it's a christmas miracle or the cruelest storm i've ever seen

[Sparky]

why does the precip. shield keep sucking in its gut over DC/northern MD

[weathervswife]

At this range the usefullness of ensembles is greatly diminished. Better to go with the op.

[retusnmete8]

really not far off from a compete coastal BOMB.

wont be historic folks but lets not get too caught up in that anymore.

EDIT: we're talking 2.0 qpf JUST off the coastline for NJ/CT/LI etc.

If this pans out it would be way up in the ranks over SE VA. Not hard over yet as want

to see NAM follow suit before I officially toss my cookies. 18z NAM IMO will be

key in adopting this scenerio. Looks like it was starting at 12z to key in so

I wait a few more hours.

[winterymix]

Eh, despite the upper levels looking better and better the surface depiction is barely changing. That tells me the overall setup just isn't any good at this point and all we are doing is buying a few miles left or right downstream.

GFS gives up to 5" along western shores of Chesapeake Bay by Monday sunrise.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Ask yourselves this as we wait for the rest of the suite:

How many times has the higher res NAM/RGEM been east/weaker than the GFS at this stage? I cannot remember one time. Either the RGEM/NAM are suffering from a significant issue or the GFS is, it's staggering at this range that the roles are reversed. One thought is the situation is so extreme, and there is so much energy that the higher res models so far are being tripped up by meso features and are displacing the low further east in a feedback loop.

[jlewis1111]

All i have to say is last weeks storm precip wise the gfs blew the nam out of the water... Just a food for thought here

[mattb65]

where are the 12z ens There not out yet so how could you make the statement that its outside the guidance

Perhaps I should have clarified - I meant all the recent ensemble guidance which had consolidated to a path just outside the benchmark. I don't want to burst any bubbles but just raising a red flag before any weenies decide to go all in on this solution.

[jlewis1111]

Perhaps I should have clarified - I meant all the recent ensemble guidance which had consolidated to a path just outside the benchmark. I don't want to burst any bubbles but just raising a red flag before any weenies decide to go all in on this solution.

very true... Its like you dotn know what to trust anymore as each model cycle is doing the opposite on what we think will happen

[SnowGoose69]

I still don't believe it yet, the NAM was better last event being more west and the GFS east, I still think they may be trading places vice versa here..

[usedtobe]

Ask yourselves this as we wait for the rest of the suite:

How many times has the higher res NAM/RGEM been east/weaker than the GFS at this stage? I cannot remember one time. Either the RGEM/NAM are suffering from a significant issue or the GFS is, it's staggering at this range that the roles are reversed. One thought is the situation is so extreme, and there is so much energy that the higher res models so far are being tripped up by meso features and are displacing the low further east in a feedback loop.

Or vice verse. until we see the other global models we won't know. The gfs is way west of most of the 09Z ensemble guidance though there is one member that would give dc similar qpf amounts. They have about the ame resolution as the gfs if I'm not mistaken.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PRSUS_9z/srefloop.html#picture

[NorthShoreWx]

Unbelievable. If you gave me unlimited power to change things, I wouldn't move that low placement an inch (this for LI).

From 6z to 12z...whats 200+ miles among friends? Thats not exactly what I'd call locking in on a solution in my book...but wow...

[joey]

12z GGEM at 12hr, looks a tad more amped up with northern stream...compared to 00z

[SnowGoose69]

Ask yourselves this as we wait for the rest of the suite:

How many times has the higher res NAM/RGEM been east/weaker than the GFS at this stage? I cannot remember one time. Either the RGEM/NAM are suffering from a significant issue or the GFS is, it's staggering at this range that the roles are reversed. One thought is the situation is so extreme, and there is so much energy that the higher res models so far are being tripped up by meso features and are displacing the low further east in a feedback loop.

Its rare with these sort of systems thats for sure, with west east moving or SW flow events they have differed severely at 48-72 hours but I can only recall 1 or 2 times where on a classic coastal system they varied this much, of course it may just be a one run deal one way or the other.

[mike2010]

NOUS42 KNHC 231515

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1015 AM EST THU 23 DECEMBER 2010

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z DECEMBER 2010

WSPOD NUMBER.....10-023

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. A63/ OTTNG/ 25/1200Z

B. AFXXX 04WSA TRACK63

C. 25/0445Z

D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED

E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 25/1400Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:

A. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W/ 26/0000Z

B. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W/ 26/1200Z

JWP

How often were these done last year during Winter storms ? I only remember 1 or 2

[IsentropicLift]

I would think were talking very nice ratios here. Maybe 14:1...16:1 that puts just about everyone from the Deleware River on eastward at 10-20". Probably over 2' western LI

[LakeEffectKing]

12z GGEM at 12hr, looks a tad more amped up with northern stream...compared to 00z

Much stronger energy over the dakotas....the same energy that dropped in on the GFS to get this more westward....now, will it interact with the S. stream in similar fashion.....?

[DJ Amenzo]

OK, all the weenies should take 5 minutes to update their FB statuses and let's settle in for the rest of the 12z.. GGEM would have LOOOOOOOOOONG way to go to get close to this, so I will disregard that, but the Euro could easily show this outcome or more.

Now you see that's just incorrect. 00z GGEM actually had some great trends in it. In regards to the trough axis and how far west it brought it into ID and W KY. There was also more ridging out W and into C Canada. The model merely got confused and pooled too much vort on the front side of the trough and sent it NEward with the first little jet streak that comes around the base. In reality, this jet streak would act more as a trough "tilter" if you will i.e it'll help to tilt the trough more negative and send the trough on its belly, thus sending the lead wave back into the AJ energy pouring into the back side of the complex down the front side of the ridge.

[Srain]

How often were these done last year during Winter storms ? I only remember 1 or 2

There was a three month, almost daily missions over the Western Pacific from Japan by G-IV aircraft that later move to HI in March. There were also several C-130 missions out of Alaska as well.

[mike2010]

Global has initiated