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12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010


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like I said yesterday... given what happened at 12z Thursday the only palce for the trend to go was west

indeed.. it's all in the northern energy. The piece digging in behind the initial wave has trended stronger, while the initial wave weaker. Plus the southern s/w has shifted more than 100 miles east! If the northern energy continues to consolidate with less and less influence from the inital piece, the bomb will return. As a said yesterday in the SE forums... this is all about phasing which models have notoriously had troubles seeing.

DT, you may have screwed the pooch but he may be screwing you today! LOL

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slightly earlier phase...or a slightly early negative tilt

also the big difference i am seeing is that at hour 42 the H5 closed low develops way back in the OH valley allowing downstream height field to be alot more conducive for a coastal track....i'd like to see this H5 closed low develop a bit further south...even at the same longitude (corrected) for a trend to even further west

by hour 54 you have very diffluent flow over the low and hence the bomb....get that diffluent flow to develop a little further south based on a earlier transition to a negative tilt....maybe a bit further west...or at least you'd get a earlier bomb and better precip field in the lower MA (or mid MA...ie. No. VA / DC)

is it really poss this could come more west or should i just say congrats to VA and NE??

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