Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Abandon ship cancel. GFS looks to be getting ready to close off the 5h pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 As I have followed this present winter storm threat and last week's as well, one of the most basic premises of weather forecasting I learned at PSU before modeling was worshipped was persistence. This December has been persistently cold with a strong NW flow at all levels unless interrupted by a classic cyclone. In Harrisburg, we are 5F below normal for the month; quite impressive without any snow cover and a very warm day on December 1! The first clipper that strengthened and moved over the western Lakes simply reinforced the persistent cold NW flow. For us who live SE of the mountains, the downsloping obviously inhibits precip and the stratocu that we get from the mtns with a few flurries from time to time is all we can muster in this type of pattern. Climo suggests that clippers just aren't the big storm producers here in the eastern MA. The split flow out west was promising, but the persistent NW flow has won out again. It seems to me that the more forecasters rely of the modeling and the exact solutions of each run, that the true art of forecasting is being lost. In my opinion, persistence is a very reliable tool in weather forecasting as patterns do often dictate the exact sensible weather one realizes in his immediate area. WOW... IF you went to PSU for weather you need to go back to school. Almost every major point you made is wrong and in many cases insullting. if you think this is a cliper Low dude ... well that speaks volumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 48 HRS GFS LOOKS LOT LIKE THE EURO FOR 2 DAYS AGO .... not as severe but its a LOT closer to se nc coast and deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 500 really digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY West Back in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Holy crap. Full phase interior SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 check out 36, its digging more compared to 6z.. Holy God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow, still shifting things west and deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 just when i get out ...you pull me back in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can't wait to see 54! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I have to go wipe myself.. Can NAM continue this trend at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twodogs Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 looks like the turn started at 36 much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Way further west with surface low pressure and more precip back into the SE.. looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 orf BURIED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 48 HRS GFS LOOKS LOT LIKE THE EURO FOR 2 DAYS AGO .... not as severe but its a LOT closer to se nc coast and deeper yus. big time improvement. obv the extreme EURO solution wont pan out, but can we begin to start shifting towards the original EURO solution? this is a case where the EURO had it all along for a few days, then lost it, only to come back around to SOMETHING of resemblence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 wow what a significant change!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 like I said yesterday... given what happened at 12z Thursday the only palce for the trend to go was west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow what a dramatic difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Game on @ 54hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 nyc gets hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 sharper at 54, but dont think its quite there yet. but up until hr 48, we're looking much much better. EDIT: i suck. 54 actually is really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 1' long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SIGNIDFICNT SNOW over eastern half of NJ and NYC at 60 hrs low 980 mb 100 miles east of SBY or DOV... heavy snow se NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 boston bombed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 nyc gets hammered The differences at 500 mb are laughable. 534 contour gets down to FL on this run, compared to TN on 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SIGNIDFICNT SNOW over eastern half of NJ and NYC at 60 hrs low 980 mb 100 miles east of SBY or DOV... heavy snow se NJ DT, do you think this could come ever further west? I am back watching once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 dt you see this improving more for the MA you see it phasing earlier per what you see on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I am getting this picture of a sharp west/east cutoff leaving Balto dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.