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12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010


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Guest someguy

As I have followed this present winter storm threat and last week's as well, one of the most basic premises of weather forecasting I learned at PSU before modeling was worshipped was persistence. This December has been persistently cold with a strong NW flow at all levels unless interrupted by a classic cyclone. In Harrisburg, we are 5F below normal for the month; quite impressive without any snow cover and a very warm day on December 1! The first clipper that strengthened and moved over the western Lakes simply reinforced the persistent cold NW flow. For us who live SE of the mountains, the downsloping obviously inhibits precip and the stratocu that we get from the mtns with a few flurries from time to time is all we can muster in this type of pattern. Climo suggests that clippers just aren't the big storm producers here in the eastern MA. The split flow out west was promising, but the persistent NW flow has won out again. It seems to me that the more forecasters rely of the modeling and the exact solutions of each run, that the true art of forecasting is being lost. In my opinion, persistence is a very reliable tool in weather forecasting as patterns do often dictate the exact sensible weather one realizes in his immediate area.

WOW... IF you went to PSU for weather you need to go back to school.

Almost every major point you made is wrong and in many cases insullting.

if you think this is a cliper Low dude ... well that speaks volumes

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48 HRS GFS LOOKS LOT LIKE THE EURO FOR 2 DAYS AGO .... not as severe but its a LOT closer to se nc coast and deeper

yus. big time improvement.

obv the extreme EURO solution wont pan out, but can we begin to start shifting towards the original EURO solution? this is a case where the EURO had it all along for a few days, then lost it, only to come back around to SOMETHING of resemblence?

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