LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 awesome, the question is are they also affected by the errors I was thinking that too, and I'm guessing they are somewhat. To be honest I'm not sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can someone post the SREF mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SREFS made adjustment west. Now has DC in .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Interesting that in the long range, the GFS is meh about any big warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah the SREFs are wild.... way way west. I don't know what to make of them to be honest. I have to say (I'm working tonight) this is one of the most difficult forecasts I've made in a while. At least I have day 1 and 4-7 done lol. The GEFS being so west at 12z too is just odd since all the other global models are wide right. They certainly give more credence to the gfs. The mean actually gives dc .25". I'm not sure what to think of them. They show tremendous spread around the low suggesting some members are even farther west. That probably changes the odds some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 18z NAM leaving even more energy behind than the 12z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mtnclimber Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 i picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue . . Yeah the SREFs are wild.... way way west. I don't know what to make of them to be honest. I have to say (I'm working tonight) this is one of the most difficult forecasts I've made in a while. At least I have day 1 and 4-7 done lol. The GEFS being so west at 12z too is just odd since all the other global models are wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yeah the SREFs are wild.... way way west. I don't know what to make of them to be honest. I have to say (I'm working tonight) this is one of the most difficult forecasts I've made in a while. At least I have day 1 and 4-7 done lol. The GEFS being so west at 12z too is just odd since all the other global models are wide right. Im pretty sure several SREF members use GFS data to run so that could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SREFS made adjustment west. Now has DC in .25 It also shows there is quite a bit of uncertainty and that at least one member had .75 or so. Should give weenies hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like Euro ens didn't budge. Didn't compare--on phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 They certainly give more credence to the gfs. The mean actually gives dc .25". I'm not sure what to think of them. They show tremendous spread around the low suggesting some members are even farther west. That probably changes the odds some. From what I understand... based on the NCEP discussion... is that there weren't data issues but rather errors with the data assimilation and subsequent initialization used by the 12z GFS. I would expect that ensembles (both SREF and GEFS) to take care of those errors given different initial conditions (perturbations) used. Isn't this the point of ensemble forecasting? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It also shows there is quite a bit of uncertainty and that at least one member had .75 or so. Should give weenies hope. You know you count yourself among them, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Im pretty sure several SREF members use GFS data to run so that could be an issue. I think that's true but the amount of uncertainty shown on the maps is pretty impressive. If the euro ens mean is west, than the odds definitely have changed. I'd probably hold steady for now with any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Regardless of the initialization problems in the operational GFS...both the GFS ensembles and the 15z SREF show an anomalously high level of uncertainty in a short term forecast.... I would have liked a better explanation from HPC about diagnostically what they saw between the initializations of the GFS vs. Euro... obviously there were significant enough differences to merit deeming one largely in error and one largely correct... They certainly give more credence to the gfs. The mean actually gives dc .25". I'm not sure what to think of them. They show tremendous spread around the low suggesting some members are even farther west. That probably changes the odds some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Im pretty sure several SREF members use GFS data to run so that could be an issue. Yes, some do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Looks like Euro ens didn't budge. Didn't compare--on phone They actually look a little east of 0z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You know you count yourself among them, Wes. I definitely am or I wouldn't be posting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think that's true but the amount of uncertainty shown on the maps is pretty impressive. If the euro ens mean is west, than the odds definitely have changed. I'd probably hold steady for now with any forecast. Given that the op Euro was a bit east (00z to 12z)... if the Euro Ensemble mean is significantly west I think this is a totally different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I definitely am or I wouldn't be posting here. Well said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Given that the op Euro was a bit east (00z to 12z)... if the Euro Ensemble mean is significantly west I think this is a totally different ballgame. LOL... nevermind... just looked and they're out. They are a hair east of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z Euro ensemble is exactly at the same spot as the 12z op Euro at 72 hours east of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SREF on GFS crack.. Oh well nice to hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Euro ensemble mean held it's own from 00z it seems. There may be a few members on the sw side of the envelope, but not much change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Yes, some do. Interesting. Thanks for that info. Very well could be a reason for the shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Sounds like the Euro and its ensembles are quite opposed to the GFS and SREFs at this time. 18Z is probably more important than usual at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z Euro ensemble is exactly at the same spot as the 12z op Euro at 72 hours east of Cape Cod. Euro has been very steady since it dropped the crazy idea.. It's probably right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm not sure if this was noted, but almost all of the GFS ensemble members bring in accumulating snow to Coastal NJ up through BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 And look at some of the individual members!!! VERY unusual to have these shift so dramatically over one run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SREF on GFS crack.. Oh well nice to hope You have to admit seeing the SREFs jump hugely west is a little compelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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