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12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010


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Yeah the SREFs are wild.... way way west. I don't know what to make of them to be honest.

I have to say (I'm working tonight) this is one of the most difficult forecasts I've made in a while. At least I have day 1 and 4-7 done lol.

The GEFS being so west at 12z too is just odd since all the other global models are wide right.

They certainly give more credence to the gfs. The mean actually gives dc .25". I'm not sure what to think of them. They show tremendous spread around the low suggesting some members are even farther west. That probably changes the odds some.

post-70-0-48064800-1293220711.gif

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i picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue . .

Yeah the SREFs are wild.... way way west. I don't know what to make of them to be honest.

I have to say (I'm working tonight) this is one of the most difficult forecasts I've made in a while. At least I have day 1 and 4-7 done lol.

The GEFS being so west at 12z too is just odd since all the other global models are wide right.

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Yeah the SREFs are wild.... way way west. I don't know what to make of them to be honest.

I have to say (I'm working tonight) this is one of the most difficult forecasts I've made in a while. At least I have day 1 and 4-7 done lol.

The GEFS being so west at 12z too is just odd since all the other global models are wide right.

Im pretty sure several SREF members use GFS data to run so that could be an issue.

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They certainly give more credence to the gfs. The mean actually gives dc .25". I'm not sure what to think of them. They show tremendous spread around the low suggesting some members are even farther west. That probably changes the odds some.

From what I understand... based on the NCEP discussion... is that there weren't data issues but rather errors with the data assimilation and subsequent initialization used by the 12z GFS.

I would expect that ensembles (both SREF and GEFS) to take care of those errors given different initial conditions (perturbations) used. Isn't this the point of ensemble forecasting? lol

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Regardless of the initialization problems in the operational GFS...both the GFS ensembles and the 15z SREF show an anomalously high level of uncertainty in a short term forecast....

I would have liked a better explanation from HPC about diagnostically what they saw between the initializations of the GFS vs. Euro... obviously there were significant enough differences to merit deeming one largely in error and one largely correct...

They certainly give more credence to the gfs. The mean actually gives dc .25". I'm not sure what to think of them. They show tremendous spread around the low suggesting some members are even farther west. That probably changes the odds some.

post-70-0-48064800-1293220711.gif

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I think that's true but the amount of uncertainty shown on the maps is pretty impressive. If the euro ens mean is west, than the odds definitely have changed. I'd probably hold steady for now with any forecast.

Given that the op Euro was a bit east (00z to 12z)... if the Euro Ensemble mean is significantly west I think this is a totally different ballgame.

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