12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010

[Guest someguy]

What did the 12Z NOGAPS do?? I read on another forum it hugs the coast?

you did?

or are u making this up?

this Look like HUGGING the coast to you?

http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA054.gif

12z nogaps is as far east if not further than the ukmet or euro

[ctsnowlover]

with all due respect, some of the mets arguing against a big snowstorm were big proponents not long ago. The fact of he matter is this a complex situation and small variations may change the outcome greatly. I think people who have already whiffed on their calls should just stay silent and wait for it to happen b/c they really do not know either.

[usedtobe]

Certainly agreed Wes.

One other thing stacked against the huge east coast snowstorm idea was the position of the ridge out in the Rockies...I think we discussed that a few times during the radio show. It was further east than you'd typically like to see for a big KU type snowstorm. Certainly deep phasing could compensate for that (which the Euro and some other guidance were showing), but it gave very little margin for error. If the phasing wasn't as deep as the Euro showed, then it would be mostly a miss.

I mentioned the ridge position to a ried and said if it had been shifted slightly east, our chances would have been much better as the storm track would have been farther east. Despite thinking the euro is the way to go, I''ll be watching the 18 model runs to see what they yield.

[Ian]

In Euro I trust. Till it shows a blizzard again..

[donsutherland1]

with all due respect, some of the mets arguing against a big snowstorm were big proponents not long ago. The fact of he matter is this a complex situation and small variations may change the outcome greatly. I think people who have already whiffed on their calls should just stay silent and wait for it to happen b/c they really do not know either.

I don't think those who might have embraced a big storm earlier should remain silent. They still have a lot of insight to add. IMO, the extremely dramatic shift in the GFS and GFS ensembles (near unanimity) is so large that it warrants caution. Continuity is the way to go and I agree with HPC's discounting the 12z GFS. If the 18z GFS and 0z GFS are in line with the 12z GFS and the other models start trending in that direction, then prospects for a big storm would be looking better.

[usedtobe]

with all due respect, some of the mets arguing against a big snowstorm were big proponents not long ago. The fact of he matter is this a complex situation and small variations may change the outcome greatly. I think people who have already whiffed on their calls should just stay silent and wait for it to happen b/c they really do not know either.

I certainly wasn't so am I allowed to caution against buying the GFS? It could end up ebing right but when HPC cautions about its initial fields and it only has support from models that don't verify as well as teh euro (#1), UKmet , GGEM and most of teh sref members along with its ensemble mean, it's a signal to go slow before buying its solution. Could it be right, of course. Is it likely,

[ctsnowlover]

I don't think those who might have embraced a big storm earlier should remain silent. They still have a lot of insight to add. IMO, the extremely dramatic shift in the GFS and GFS ensembles (near unanimity) is so large that it warrants caution. Continuity is the way to go and I agree with HPC's discounting the 12z GFS. If the 18z GFS and 0z GFS are in line with the 12z GFS and the other models start trending in that direction, then prospects for a big storm would be looking better.

no argument with being cautious, but it is just as silly to say GFS is definitely wrong as when certain Mets said Euro was correct a few days ago. Certainty gets you burned when it comes to weather..

[Baroclinic Zone]

I certainly wasn't so am I allowed to caution against buying the GFS? It could end up ebing right but when HPC cautions about its initial fields and it only has support from models that don't verify as well as teh euro (#1), UKmet , GGEM and most of teh sref members along with its ensemble mean, it's a signal to go slow before buying its solution. Could it be right, of course. Is it likely,

Wes, it's very hard to argue against the Euro Ensm. They have been pretty steadfast of the last 5-6 runs on bringing this system up the coast and about 50 miles East of 40/70. Sure we can throw caution in the wind but I'd put the odds of the 12z GFS and it's Ensm. being even remotely correct with its' SLP placement at under 10%.

[Ian]

no argument with being cautious, but it is just as silly to say GFS is definitely wrong as when certain Mets said Euro was correct a few days ago. Certainty gets you burned when it comes to weather..

You should try being less weenie and enjoy whatever happens

[usedtobe]

Wes, it's very hard to argue against the Euro Ensm. They have been pretty steadfast of the last 5-6 runs on bringing this system up the coast and about 50 miles East of 40/70. Sure we can throw caution in the wind but I'd put the odds of the 12z GFS and it's Ensm. being even remotely correct with its' SLP placement at under 10%.

Is this morning's euro ens mean in? If so, and it's east that a big deal. They have better resolution than the GEFS members and a somewhat better momma model.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Is this morning's euro ens mean in? If so, and it's east that a big deal. They have better resolution than the GEFS members and a somewhat better momma model.

Not today's 12z run. Last nights run.

[Ian]

Is this morning's euro ens mean in? If so, and it's east that a big deal. They have better resolution than the GEFS members and a somewhat better momma model.

Comes out in about 30 min

[donsutherland1]

You should try being less weenie and enjoy whatever happens

I will. After all, it's the only weather I've got.

[stormtracker]

Just got in and saw the data. The GFS is nice to look at, but when you know it has some errors to start out, how can you trust it? 0z tonight will tell if this thing has any shot.

[usedtobe]

no issue, just want to see a Met give a forecast w/o citing a model:) Are there any left out there?

all mets rely on models, how else are they going to forecast the non linear interactions of the atmosphere. However, I do think if you actually read some of the discussions, we do not always rely on one model. Heck, we've given this a low threat for a major event in the dc area from the getgo and haven't wavered really changed much despite all the model iterations. Eventually, a forecaster has to decide which camp of models to follow until you get into the very short ranges. All forecasters bust sometimes, that goes with the territory. If you don't want to listen to any opinions and reasons for a forecast, then don't read them.

[isohume]

no issue, just want to see a Met give a forecast w/o citing a model:) Are there any left out there?

After one day? Do you mean citing or using model guidance?

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Hello,I just looked at the bufkit for the 12z GFS for today and it shows KACY getting 21.3" on Monday.Did I miss something?

Yeah apprently you missed the 'disregard the gfs statement'.

[snowalot]

Hello,I just looked at the bufkit for the 12z GFS for today and it shows KACY getting 21.3" on Monday.Did I miss something?

Unfortunately, the 12Z GFS was removed from consideration by the HPC due to initialization errors. So as of right now it is being discounted.

[LakeEffectKing]

For those who want to say the Euro is not as good in this time range....how do you suppose it is better in longer ranges??? Does it F'up for the first 48 hours then magically correct itself in the longer range??? Think people.

Other models tend to slightly close the gap on the Euro in the shorter range. But make no mistake, it's error scores are smaller at much shorter time ranges, as are every other model. Lead time is the single most important aspect in determining a models verification score over the long term.

And somehow people have interpreted that as meaning the Euro stinks in the shorter term....makes no sense other than weenism.

[JoeSeNJ]

Pretend you never saw it. It looks like there were a few issues with the 12z GFS

Hello,I just looked at the bufkit for the 12z GFS for today and it shows KACY getting 21.3" on Monday.Did I miss something?

[Riptide]

Pretend you never saw it. It looks like there were a few issues with the 12z GFS

Wait untill 18z.

[mattie g]

Wait untill 18z.

And if that doesn't show what you want, then check back for the 0Z.

[VAsnowlvr82]

Will the 18z runs still be affected by the 12z poor initialization or will they be good?

[Riptide]

And if that doesn't show what you want, then check back for the 0Z.

No, I'll be completely done with this threat and enjoy my dusting.

[DoctorMu]

Pretend you never saw it. It looks like there were a few issues with the 12z GFS

In complex systems, each iteration magnifies errors of initial conditions - if they're off the model can't be trusted. Best to wait for the 18z GFS.

[usedtobe]

For those who want to say the Euro is not as good in this time range....how do you suppose it is better in longer ranges??? Does it F'up for the first 48 hours then magically correct itself in the longer range??? Think people.

Other models tend to slightly close the gap on the Euro in the shorter range. But make no mistake, it's error scores are smaller at much shorter time ranges, as are every other model. Lead time is the single most important aspect in determining a models verification score over the long term.

And somehow people have interpreted that as meaning the Euro stinks in the shorter term....makes no sense other than weenism.

HPC Verification stats of day 1, 2 and 3 qpf have the euro as the best model.

[Dalfy]

Pretend you never saw it. It looks like there were a few issues with the 12z GFS

TBH you shouldnt totally discount it, the 0z and 18z yesterday still CLEARLY showed a westerly trend in the model and ensembles support this.

Im not saying this is going to be a costal bomb but scrapper for the ma and not ots is what Im thinking is the most likely... A strong mecs is still not out of the question but highly unlikely.

[LVblizzard]

SREFs came way west. 984 over the benchmark at 66.

[stormman]

SREFs came way west. 984 over the benchmark at 66.

awesome, the question is are they also affected by the errors

[CT Rain]

SREFs came way west. 984 over the benchmark at 66.

Yeah the SREFs are wild.... way way west. I don't know what to make of them to be honest.

I have to say (I'm working tonight) this is one of the most difficult forecasts I've made in a while. At least I have day 1 and 4-7 done lol.

The GEFS being so west at 12z too is just odd since all the other global models are wide right.