12Z Model runs Christmas Eve 2010

[brettjrob]

the euro is not meant to be used as short term model

And the GFS is?

[KEITH L.I]

jb agrees with GFS despite the initization

JB..lol

[goldstar]

Didnt the JMA lean to the GFS? That would be GFS, JMA and CRAS, right? and the NAM between the two sides, nothing resolved yet I think, lets see the 00z, either way it could still end up a nowcast situation.

I hope I am surprised, at this point I am passed jaded and back to anything is better than nothing.

[Analog96]

And the GFS is?

Actually, the GFS is USUALLY very good inside 72 hours.

[PhineasC]

Didnt the JMA lean to the GFS? That would be GFS, JMA and CRAS, right? and the NAM between the two sides, nothing resolved yet I think, lets see the 00z, either way it could still end up a nowcast situation.

I hope I am surprised, at this point I am passed jaded and back to anything is better than nothing.

You need to realize models like the JMA and CRAS aren't any good. GFS is all alone.

[Ji]

You need to realize models like the JMA and CRAS aren't any good. GFS is all alone.

JMA is better than the euro right now, It never showed a 960 HECS for 5 runs in a row

[uncle W]

Bernie Rayno thinks there is a chance from NYC north and east to get a decent snowstorm...Elliot Abrams didn't rule it out either...

[Analog96]

Bernie Rayno thinks there is a chance from NYC north and east to get a decent snowstorm...Elliot Abrams didn't rule it out either...

Elliot Abrams is usually very conservative, so that is good to see.

[Analog96]

You need to realize models like the JMA and CRAS aren't any good. GFS is all alone.

I don't know if I would say that the JMA is as bad as the CRAS. The JMA is not THAT bad!

[goldstar]

You need to realize models like the JMA and CRAS aren't any good. GFS is all alone.

Even in the short range inside 60 hrs?

Also, the NAM came considerably west, and the Low over TX is much stronger than modeled I think.

[SteveB]

Ji, I agree, when the JMA and GFS team up, they are usually onto something, error or not. The CRAS is a huge red flag. It actually did rather well last year with several storms sniffing them out before any other guidance. 12/19/09 is a good example. The higher res models are having a tough time focusing on the correct energy. I think we see a nice shift West with no errors at 0Z. The SREF even came west, again. That's more than enough to keep me interested.

[PhineasC]

Even in the short range inside 60 hrs?

Also, the NAM came considerably west, and the Low over TX is much stronger than modeled I think.

Have you ever seen a real meteorologist use the JMA or CRAS? I rest my case.

[DoctorMu]

Even in the short range inside 60 hrs?

Also, the NAM came considerably west, and the Low over TX is much stronger than modeled I think.

The most energy and best chance at rainfall > 0.25 in in SE Texas in 3 months. It's digging south

[weatherweather]

I think every other model could be out to bermuda right now, but as long as the gfs shows what it shows, were all still hooked. Even if HPC said to throw it out lol

[Guest someguy]

the last 2 pages in this thread is liek a bad day at accu weather weenie forum

greg ...dude when you post start to sound and read like ralph'/steve B and JI you need to re-think things

[psuhoffman]

Wow the last 20 minutes this thread has been overrun by wishcasting.

Look its fine to want something to happen and hope for it. It is not good to allow your wishes to cloud your ability to have expectations and forecasts based on sound reasoning, logic, and scientific data. There is a chance the GFS is right, even with the errors, but it scares me that some on here seem to almost treat the idea of snow like a religion. The model that shows a storm just has to be right because that is what I believe and want to happen reasoning. Throwing the CRAS and JMA around as support is really foolish. Ok fine have it your way its the JMA/CRAS/GFS versus the EC/GGEM/RGEM/SREF/UKMET that is still a horribly stacked opponent your up against. Iook if you want to believe its going to snow fine but if you are honestly taking the GFS along with some very low verification models against all other guidance you are not being objective and are using faulty logic. I too will be looking at the 0z runs with the slim hope of a hail mary because anything is possible...but to expect it is foolish. This is the kind of thing I did when I was 16 and just wanted snow and was blinded by my desire for it to snow that logic had nothing to do with anything.

[beez]

the last 2 pages in this thread is liek a bad day at accu weather weenie forum

greg ...dude when you post start to sound and read like ralph'/steve B and JI you need to re-think things

yea,,,the big storm idea is history but I still think we could see a 1-3 inch deal right along the immediate coast including nj and long island

[Guest someguy]

hey dt you are prob 1000000% correct, but dont you think the way this storm has been so far on the models, thats a pretty bold call to say yes its over??? I mean just the other day its looked like a blizzard then the models surprised everyone and went ots, now the gfs today brings it back, and all the esembles agree, yes their were some errors, but no guarentees it caused the storm to become a hit.

well for New England its never 100% over becuase the region 'STICK OUT' to almost 70 degrees west longitude

the "its over" refers to the idea of major snow-- not no snow -- but major snow for RIC to NYC

[Guest someguy]

Wow the last 20 minutes this thread has been overrun by wishcasting.

Look its fine to want something to happen and hope for it. It is not good to allow your wishes to cloud your ability to have expectations and forecasts based on sound reasoning, logic, and scientific data. There is a chance the GFS is right, even with the errors, but it scares me that some on here seem to almost treat the idea of snow like a religion. The model that shows a storm just has to be right because that is what I believe and want to happen reasoning. Throwing the CRAS and JMA around as support is really foolish. Ok fine have it your way its the JMA/CRAS/GFS versus the EC/GGEM/RGEM/SREF/UKMET that is still a horribly stacked opponent your up against. Iook if you want to believe its going to snow fine but if you are honestly taking the GFS along with some very low verification models against all other guidance you are not being objective and are using faulty logic. I too will be looking at the 0z runs with the slim hope of a hail mary because anything is possible...but to expect it is foolish. This is the kind of thing I did when I was 16 and just wanted snow and was blinded by my desire for it to snow that logic had nothing to do with anything.

+ 4

[ORH_wxman]

I don't know if I would say that the JMA is as bad as the CRAS. The JMA is not THAT bad!

Its certainly worse than the UKMET/NAM/GGEM/Euro/SREF all which show a total whiff or glancing blow to just SE NE and/or SE VA/E NC.

The GFS ensembles seem to me as if they are copycatting whatever in the OP GFS is causing the huge amplification. We've seen this happen before where they all look similar to the OP, and then once the OP goes E next run, they all follow. Not saying I would discount them 100%, but they have a lot of strikes against them right now.

[Dr No]

yea,,,the big storm idea is history but I still think we could see a 1-3 inch deal right along the immediate coast including nj and long island

whats the scientific or statistical reasoning?

I have a good idea... lets wait till the 15Z SREFs and 18Z NAM/GFS runs. If it's west too and starts to bomb the storm early we can consider a potential trend. If not, then perhaps we can say the 12Z GFS is anomolous.

[WxLover]

Why does everyone believe the Euro no matter what, and disreguard the GFS?

[KEITH L.I]

ARW and WRF show big hit like 12z GFS..are they accurate?..I know they are short term models

[usedtobe]

Its certainly worse than the UKMET/NAM/GGEM/Euro/SREF all which show a total whiff or glancing blow to just SE NE and/or SE VA/E NC.

The GFS ensembles seem to me as if they are copycatting whatever in the OP GFS is causing the huge amplification. We've seen this happen before where they all look similar to the OP, and then once the OP goes E next run, they all follow. Not saying I would discount them 100%, but they have a lot of strikes against them right now.

I certainly prefer having the euro in my corner than the gfs which did something like this late with the last storm when it had it grazing sern va. The consensus towards the euro is pretty strong as I don't think the cras is worth giving any weight to. Also, jsut as importantly. This year all the models ahve had periods where they have overphased lows. Think of the ukmet having a upper low got to our south when it ended up in IL (the MN snowstorm), then the euro and GFS taking turns with the storm for last week and now the euro and GFS doing it this week. Does that mean the GFS is wrong, no but it does suggest that if you were placing odds, you'd want them steeply stacked towards the Euro camp, especially in the mid Atlantic. You still have a little more wiggle room. we don't.

It's good that the pattern looks like it will break for a week or so, maybe the next iteration will be better for us.

[stormman]

well for New England its never 100% over becuase the region 'STICK OUT' to almost 70 degrees west longitude

the "its over" refers to the idea of major snow-- not no snow -- but major snow for RIC to NYC

thats fine, I totally understand, but stupid question, what If, and yes I know its a big if, but what if, the 18z and then esp the 0z gfs tonight still shows the hit, and the other models nam etc trend toward it?

[mattie g]

Wow the last 20 minutes this thread has been overrun by wishcasting.

Look its fine to want something to happen and hope for it. It is not good to allow your wishes to cloud your ability to have expectations and forecasts based on sound reasoning, logic, and scientific data. There is a chance the GFS is right, even with the errors, but it scares me that some on here seem to almost treat the idea of snow like a religion. The model that shows a storm just has to be right because that is what I believe and want to happen reasoning. Throwing the CRAS and JMA around as support is really foolish. Ok fine have it your way its the JMA/CRAS/GFS versus the EC/GGEM/RGEM/SREF/UKMET that is still a horribly stacked opponent your up against. Iook if you want to believe its going to snow fine but if you are honestly taking the GFS along with some very low verification models against all other guidance you are not being objective and are using faulty logic. I too will be looking at the 0z runs with the slim hope of a hail mary because anything is possible...but to expect it is foolish. This is the kind of thing I did when I was 16 and just wanted snow and was blinded by my desire for it to snow that logic had nothing to do with anything.

If you take a step back from the workbench, I think you'd see that some of those posts are meant in jest. Almost like gallows humor as a way to relieve the disappointment and craziness of following this thing. The rest are wishcasting without any regard for what the evidence is showing. I compliment those people for their enthusiasm, but it's fairly easy to disregard those posts as anything more than that.

[ORH_wxman]

I certainly prefer having the euro in my corner than the gfs which did something like this late with the last storm when it had it grazing sern va. The consensus towards the euro is pretty strong as I don't think the cras is worth giving any weight to. Also, jsut as importantly. This year all the models ahve had periods where they have overphased lows. Think of the ukmet having a upper low got to our south when it ended up in IL (the MN snowstorm), then the euro and GFS taking turns with the storm for last week and now the euro and GFS doing it this week. Does that mean the GFS is wrong, no but it does suggest that if you were placing odds, you'd want them steeply stacked towards the Euro camp, especially in the mid Atlantic. You still have a little more wiggle room. we don't.

It's good that the pattern looks like it will break for a week or so, maybe the next iteration will be better for us.

Certainly agreed Wes.

One other thing stacked against the huge east coast snowstorm idea was the position of the ridge out in the Rockies...I think we discussed that a few times during the radio show. It was further east than you'd typically like to see for a big KU type snowstorm. Certainly deep phasing could compensate for that (which the Euro and some other guidance were showing), but it gave very little margin for error. If the phasing wasn't as deep as the Euro showed, then it would be mostly a miss.

[SteveB]

What did the 12Z NOGAPS do?? I read on another forum it hugs the coast?

[ORH_wxman]

What did the 12Z NOGAPS do?? I read on another forum it hugs the coast?

They must have been looking at the GFS

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_12z/nogapsloop.html

[LehighValleyDad]

I will marry you

Despite the non storm, I am enjoying this continued desperation and wishcast thread. DT, I think you are hanging around for the same humor value. :-)