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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm   not really ... That's coming down along a steep azymuth but not from the NE or E.   

I mean it's all a silliness anyway - a cold front's a cold front.  They go by one's location, one's location gets cold.  Front.  Nature doesn't care. LOL. It's all stupid...

But BDs get a little distinction in that typically fronts move from west to east, .... or in the least have west component embedded in their motion. But BD's really do purely move with east component that deviates their motion from pure N.  They can happen anywhere.  But this region is particularly prone to them for a few complex reasons -

That example you provided has too much west component to be "backing in"  - at least from that look.   But as an homage to the silliness of it, that front probably is a backdoor event, out in time, further south along the EC.  It'll at some point run out of W-E momentum over New England, and then pivots around it's self down over NJ and starts moving SW for PHL/DCA....  

Yeah I guess.  That day was very interesting, with fairly widespread severe thunderstorms.  convection aligned on a coastal boundary/front in E/SE MA from 1-2pm (495/I-95 norfolk, bristol), cells moving mostly N to S but backing westward into  southern orh/RI by 3-4pm and farther into central CT by evening.  

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54 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Has a back door front ever been predicted that DIDN'T happen? It seems like the most inevitable thing in the universe when they’re forecasted

Once or twice in 10 years I've seen a BD on a three day map...correct in near terms and ultimately hold back to being stationary up in southern Maine.

Otherwise, no ...

There's a reason for that.  It's the lower level resolution of the models, and their limitations in understanding the boundary layer conditions - exactly - as the cold ocean, the mountains west, and the coastal plain ...all interact at the very bottom of the atmosphere. It's fuzzy in that region.  Adding to that, cold air by physical law, will always travel under warm air because of its higher specific gravity.  So, you put cold air in a fuzzy layer, the models are thus more apt NOT to see it properly... 

What that all means is ...it is far in a way more likely that a cold BD air mass will be missed, than seen - such if they are seen, the forcing for them must be obscene.  A little hyperbole, but just very large.   In other words, the uncertainty is always sloped in favor of actually getting them.

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As we draw it up.  Lush, green, Chamber of Commerce views and vibes on Memorial Day weekend.  Couldn’t be more stoked on the weather the past couple days.

Early warm season, when fresh green leaf-out finally reaches the upper elevations.  Late spring transitioning to early summer type vegetation.

That's Jay Peak and Big Jay in the center of the horizon.

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Going to be a really interesting day Wednesday west of here...really trying to figure out where to set up to chase. Really leaning on going where the backdoor may set up around the HV. The shear Wednesday will be pretty crazy...instability should be decent and llvl lapse rates looks solid...which is huge for wind potential 

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