May 2022 Thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not tonight.  Crown Apple's and Riesling.  

Added some Pinot Grigio to the mix.   

[Saguaro]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is ...

It's a specter portrayed, beginning about 3 days ago in the guidance, and since they've all agreed ...some more or less aggressively, that the previous big heat suggestion is getting completely obtruded by that aspect bullying in like cops showing up precisely 2 minutes before the party would have really gotten good.  heh

I am a little suspect of any solutions that 'hold it back' like a pregnant water balloon full of cold air and mank, tenuously unpopped,  down into Essex Co in NE Mass.

If it gets to that point it gets to TTN NJ

 

That's an apt analogy. It's certainly been a persistent trend on the models for a few days now. Knowing how these go, it would not surprise me to see SPC throw an enhanced or moderate risk right up to the edge of the summer side of it for a day or two next week while the other side rots away in the clammy gloom. GYX says the culprit is stubborn troughing in the maritimes running up against a block and retrograding. I've certainly seen the trend in the past where these end up barreling down to Philly or DC when initially they're forecast to halt in CNE. If that happens, ME and NH may at least get some sun out of it.

 

11 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Good, keep that high dew sweaty crack stuff down there

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

We each have our own preferences, but I'd much prefer sun and heat with convection potential to low ceiling 40s on the eve of met summer.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Dry month.  1.48" MTD

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Dry month.  1.48" MTD

Lent is over.

[kdxken]

After the flooding rains of last year I actually had an otter in my marsh. First time ever.

https://youtu.be/WGZkaMxrGuk

[HoarfrostHubb]

Close to an inch here.  West Springfield over 2.7”.  Wow.  

[powderfreak]

Had ~0.40" today, not a washout but the garden has been well fed.  I'm 4.5+ inches on the month.  It's been higher up north of here.  The water has come at a great time for spring growth this month.

 

[rimetree]

Picked up just over an inch of rain today. Biggest accumulation of the month, which is now at 2.73" total. Don't see any drought concerns if the long range is any indication. 

[ineedsnow]

0z CMC trying to bring that tropical system close by.. 

[moneypitmike]

Looks like a beaut coming up today.  Time to fish.

 

51*

[BrianW]

49 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks like a beaut coming up today.  Time to fish.

 

51*

The fishing was incredible here yesterday after the storms moved out.  

 

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, BrianW said:

The fishing was incredible here yesterday after the storms moved out.  

 

Where is this?

[kdxken]

Looks like everyone's going to be happy this weekend. Coc today and heat tomorrow.

[klw]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man. We got Steined here . WTF

Same here.  We only got  a couple of drops, not enough to wet the ground.

[moneypitmike]

42 minutes ago, BrianW said:

The fishing was incredible here yesterday after the storms moved out.  

 

Is that Brnaford?  My high school girls friend lived there......summer island rod or some such thing IIRC.  

[dendrite]

49.2°

Not a summer morning, but should be a warm afternoon. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

49.2°

Not a summer morning, but should be a warm afternoon. 

COC. We Stein. 1.70 for the entire month. Saw brown lawns this morning. Total opposite of last year. 

[Ginx snewx]

Dry stuff, Eastern areas MTD

[Ginx snewx]

Congrats Wolfie and Lukas

[BrianW]

28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Is that Brnaford?  My high school girls friend lived there......summer island rod or some such thing IIRC.  

Hawks Nest Beach in Old Lyme.

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, klw said:

Same here.  We only got  a couple of drops, not enough to wet the ground.

Meanwhile, Freak’s doing naked rain angels in inches of it 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Meanwhile, Freak’s doing naked rain angels in inches of it 

It rains every day there. That’s why there’s so many breweries. People get angry and start drinking. 

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Wolfie and Lukas

They always Jack.. winter and summer 

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Congrats Wolfie and Lukas

I know New England typically doesn’t have to many brush fires after green up but I remember a 100 acre fire we went to in Douglas State forest June/July in the late 90’s

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, Saguaro said:

That's an apt analogy. It's certainly been a persistent trend on the models for a few days now. Knowing how these go, it would not surprise me to see SPC throw an enhanced or moderate risk right up to the edge of the summer side of it for a day or two next week while the other side rots away in the clammy gloom. GYX says the culprit is stubborn troughing in the maritimes running up against a block and retrograding. I've certainly seen the trend in the past where these end up barreling down to Philly or DC when initially they're forecast to halt in CNE. If that happens, ME and NH may at least get some sun out of it.

 

We each have our own preferences, but I'd much prefer sun and heat with convection potential to low ceiling 40s on the eve of met summer.

Right ( bold ..).  And we're still getting inconsistencies in the position of the BD's movement over time.  Latest guidance seems to backed off on that. 

Five days ago, the Euro had no clue that a BD would be there.  None of them did. Then the GFS hinted ( uh oh...), four days ago but the Euro still carried a big heat signal with less of that...  Three days ago they were all in, though, and the heat was completely redrawn... 97 to 57 style.  Thing is, BD party pisser in the models is/was a correlative fit for -NAO ... ( I mentioned this in the presently marooned June thread that Jerry started). Then, these last two day, the models deepened the 50/50 vortex, pinning it in place ... A BD should really intrude.  

It's like 'why in f spend time on such minutia' ... I think being 92 versus 60 is pretty impressive correction to have to deterministically negotiate if one is a forecaster.

Here we are two days ...those over-arcing themes are still in place, yet the Euro trends considerably less in both the 00z and 06z versions.  The GFS too ...The GFS ... in a rare show of parity -

For a forecaster .. it's a good thing this contention wasn't during today and tomorrow - lol.. Because the variation across the boundary could be as much as 54 at BVY, to 94 at EWR  (Beverly Mass/N shore of Boston vs Newark, NJ).  It would make a difference for yard and pool parties, huh

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Tomorrow may make 91.

It's funny where we were with the modeling ideas for today and tomorrows, as stood 5 days ago.  Especially the GFS, which had 50s in mist when not raining east wind shits.

                                              52                                                92

That's why we always trust a 5 day depiction LOL

BD still there but a bit less intrusive in recent runs.  Unclear ... As I just mentioned to Saguaro, it's more apt to happen than not in a -NAO.  But as is, the BD is delayed 6 to 9 hours, and, it also appears to wash out before even getting to NYC.   hmm.   Not sure I'd trust that if CT.  If the -NAO is regime does pin a 50/50-like vortex ivo of NF, a boundary between continental heat ejected from the W will set up between.  Experience alone teaches us that if see one on the map ice-bergs knock on the door in Atlantic Georgia.  heh.  If the new runs were to continue the back-off trend in an equal redraw, that keeps the boundary to about PWM or so and we swelter through Tuesday. I am not personally leaning that way

[ineedsnow]

Spc has 15 percent severe for western areas day 4

[Chrisrotary12]

What a classic door modeled for Tuesday. Morning showers/storms move off the Maine coast and out to sea. Door thrown back west in its wake. Anyone who went to UML spent a whole lecture learning about this scenario.

Wonder if we can get any convection on the door. Lifted indices are -5 or so and a remnant EML going overhead?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What a classic door modeled for Tuesday. Morning showers/storms move off the Maine coast and out to sea. Door thrown back west in its wake. Anyone who went to UML spent a whole lecture learning about this scenario.

Wonder if we can get any convection on the door. Lifted indices are -5 or so and a remnant EML going overhead?

Looking forward to the door, l just like seeing something interesting weather wise 

[CoastalWx]

Heard Californication from RHCP and immediately started saying dream of Steinifornication.....we are disturbed.