Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

It's odd seeing the GFS get the adiabatic temperatures all the way to (ave) 86 next Thursday across the breadth of the area ... when the model had been fighting off this warm signal at least excuse imagined - reversed with the Euro, which now challenges whether the deeper warmth gets in here because of it's oblong/stalled surface high parked due E of Logan's latitude like that.  That thing would drill CCB clear to Albany ... (hyperbole but yeah-)     

The 06z's, 18z GFS 2-meter vision for next Thursday is probably 92.  I don't know why those products label "2-meter temperatures," when it is abundantly clear that maps are limited to the linear adiabats.

They don't/probably can't calc the bottom 100 meters of the sounding where it slopes log to the right like a knife blade nearing the surface(s), where the 2-meter actually is!  

Friday back doors badly .. not sure folks are seeing that?  But... f if it's 8 days out.. probably won't exist

Actually all these details are almost useless... heh.  I mean this signal is still emerging/evolving in the runs.  I'm not even sure how much of that cut -off momentum is really true.. Talking 7 days away.   If that's weaker (say), then it acts less like an inverted block, and that high settles S-SE of our latitudes faster. We get more robust heat in here sooner - cannot be precluded at this range.   Telecons favor a warm anomaly over eastern N/A; we are still where we were 4 or 5 days ago when I mentioned that warmer solutions should begin to emerge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully these NAM metrics are right about tomorrow.   Should be nearing 70 by 21Z ... if not 72, with light NW wind, very little cloud contamination.  Purified post frontal air mass too.  It's one of these 'warmer after the cold front' deals.    Helped along by d-slope flow, and the fact that the actual amount of cold advection behind the front is too weak to offset the May sun.  Nice!  

Anyway, could be a couple of hammock hours tomorrow mid- late afternoon.  It would be starkly contrasting to that misty murk out there today...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully 70 pans out here. Murky and damp here. 53. YUCK

The Boys track meet got postponed until tomorrow. He ran last Wednesday in Marlboro. It was 52, gusty and miserable. They got there at 3:30 but didn't run until after 5 when the throwers got through. By then they are all cold and stiff.  Times were way off. He usually runs  11.7-ish 100 m, but he was at 12 flat. Everyone else was slow too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Hopefully 70 pans out here. Murky and damp here. 53. YUCK

The Boys track meet got postponed until tomorrow. He ran last Wednesday in Marlboro. It was 52, gusty and miserable. They got there at 3:30 but didn't run until after 5 when the throwers got through. By then they are all cold and stiff.  Times were way off. He usually runs  11.7-ish 100 m, but he was at 12 flat. Everyone else was slow too. 

I don't like personally running in the cold either...  I mean, I hear others that run, some regularly gush about 50s being ideal - uh...really? 

I like it about 66 to 72.  Sweat kicks in by mile two, and then that's plenty of cooling through evaporation to not get too hot.  Above that... yeah, if it's very sunny and still air, ...open terrain with no shade, that goes the other way.  80 F is too warm for example.  But I have... I once ran in 89 F because the gym was closed and needed to get my 5 miles in.  Oh man - I think it took two days to shake that weird feeling that it left behind.  I was pie -eyed when I came down my street and set to walking it off, but had to get to the sink for cold water on the neck. I think I borderline overheated. 

But less than about 65 is doable but for every degree down, ... by the low 50s?   I've spent too much time up front getting lithe and lubed by my own body heat... Then the run's over. Don't feel like I even sweat enough because of it.  I even think the next day something is arguing and achy for doing it more so.   Cold sucks.  It pulls the will out of you.  And putting up those tepid times like you described doesn't surprise me.   But everyone's got their range.  For some... running in cold is preferred. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't like personally running in the cold either...  I mean, I hear others that run, some regularly gush about 50s being ideal - uh...really? 

I like it about 66 to 72.  Sweat kicks in by mile two, and then that's plenty of cooling through evaporation to not get too hot.  Above that... yeah, if it's very sunny and still air, ...open terrain with no shade, that goes the other way.  80 F is too warm for example.  But I have... I once ran in 89 F because the gym was closed and needed to get my 5 miles in.  Oh man - I think it took two days to shake that weird feeling that it left behind.  I was pie -eyed when I came down my street and set to walking it off, but had to get to the sink for cold water on the neck. I think I borderline overheated. 

But less than about 65 is doable but for every degree down, ... by the low 50s?   I've spent too much time up front getting lithe and lubed by my own body heat... Then the run's over. Don't feel like I even sweat enough because of it.  I even think the next day something is arguing and achy for doing it more so.   Cold sucks.  It pulls the will out of you.  And putting up those tepid times like you described doesn't surprise me.   But everyone's got their range.  For some... running in cold is preferred. 

He hates running in the cold. But he doesn't do distance. He does for conditioning, but he's a sprinter. 100 m and 4x100. Its over in less than 12 seconds (hopefully). To sprint you gotta get loose or you'll get hurt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s annoying. We can’t buy a good stretch no matter how much the salesman tries to sell.

Listening to him talk Spring is like listening to Bill Clinton about the Oral Office. "Well the depends how you define Spring..."

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't trust the GFS run... It's almost like NOAA's modelers deliberately parameterized the thing to punch holes in ridges... 

Kidding... but that's an excessive looking feed-back scenario there.  There's likely to be something whirling there but not that spatially owned.

One thing I am also noticing over the last several runs... several days worth, is the handling of this little critter S/W that's almost nondescriptly sneaking in, as the D(NAO) is flipping signs...

image.png.3dc47df7d0782fd5b47aef0bbd3e1a0b.png

If you toggle/loop.... that little gnat of an innocuous feature gets dumped in.  GFS has been stubborn about that subtle momentum getting tossed backward...

The Euro was kind of onto that sort of subtle/insidious stream addition too, as of last night's run.   We'll have to see...

I believe a weakness if not a cut-off contour.  The +D(NAO) is quite rapid in execution, and whatever happens to be in the flow there is likely to be ambered in once the westerlies lift out. But the propensity for the outer mid range/extended to magnify/enhance in that range, leaves me somewhat skeptical of that gutted ridge look. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...