May 2022 Thread

[kdxken]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very chilly here in Chatham 

So yesterday I dropped my wallet outside of a store that I shopped at and couldn't find it all day . I canceled all my credit cards and ordered a new license and registration. 

This guy messages my wife today on Facebook and says that he has my wallet. He picked up my wallet and brought it home and tried to reach me. He eventually found us through the wedding site.

I went to his house and picked up my wallet this evening. If this was NYC my wallet would have been gone.

Honest folk in New England. Connecticut can be iffy it borders New York.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m allergic to so many foods. I grow them for the fun and for fam and friends. I have 16 pepper plants of various types  . Those I can eat .

Get outside! Research shows sitting in front of an air conditioner can increase your chances of developing allergies. Perhaps wait until at least April before you install...

[klw]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No

Some great sunsets can be seen from Race Point and, even more so, Herring Cove Beach (closer to town).  Have a wonderful trip and congratulaitons.

[Whineminster]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cape Cod is nice but the majority of restaurants are closed certain days and close early 

Yeah especially before memorial day

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cape Cod is nice but the majority of restaurants are closed certain days and close early 

Definitely early for a full opening. Even last summer some were closed certain days due to staffing issues. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely early for a full opening. Even last summer some were closed certain days due to staffing issues. 

A lot of the college-age service workers from Eastern Europe, that are key workforce in a lot of New England resort areas, never came back after the Covid lockdowns.  

[MJOatleast7]

Well, Harv just gave his last regular cast…He expressed such gratitude and appreciation for everyone.


.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Long range looks warm and relatively dry.   Some hot days interspersed with chamber of commerce days, everybody wins.

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely early for a full opening. Even last summer some were closed certain days due to staffing issues. 

Place in Maine we used to like to go to closed  permanently due to staffing.

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cape Cod is nice but the majority of restaurants are closed certain days and close early 

Try in July.  It’s early for the cape.

[Lava Rock]

Long range looks warm and relatively dry.   Some hot days interspersed with chamber of commerce days, everybody wins.

Kinda wanted the heavier showers on Sat, but that looks very spotty now

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[kdxken]

46/42  LaunchPad to the '60s.

[Damage In Tolland]

Always finds a way to get “drought” into every tweet 

 

[CoastalWx]

I’m already dry getting burn patches before Mem Day. Should look like El Paso by the 4th.

[Lava Rock]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m already dry getting burn patches before Mem Day. Should look like El Paso by the 4th.

I'll be sure to post lawn, err dirt pics by then

[MJO812]

Going to Martha's Vineyard now on a ferry

Have a fenway park tour planned tomorrow

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah especially before memorial day

Used to be even later than that.  Our 1971 honeymoon trip included Bar Harbor, and on June 24 we bought 2 pound-and-a-half lobsters and drove up Cadillac so we could enjoy the view as we ate.  The lobsters were delicious but otherwise it was a disaster.
-We failed to grab a wad of napkins.  Eating a whole lobster can create the need for a full shower.
-Despite it being almost July, the Park had not yet turned on the water on the summit.  Maybe we should've used the dampened Rugosa roses for clean-up, though the thorns might've hindered that.
-The temp was about 50 and the view wasn't much more than that many yards in the dense fog.
All good memories. 

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m already dry getting burn patches before Mem Day. Should look like El Paso by the 4th.

[Lava Rock]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

at what point do the current means get updated for comparisons like this? Anotherwords, these maps indicate drought levels compared to historical means. If the climate is changing and summers are tending drier, how long before the "new" mean is used? In 5yrs the map above may be considered normal. Is this a dumb question?

[MJO812]

[Torch Tiger]

Furnace on the 06z gfs next week starting Monday!   Four day torcher!

[OceanStWx]

25 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

at what point do the current means get updated for comparisons like this? Anotherwords, these maps indicate drought levels compared to historical means. If the climate is changing and summers are tending drier, how long before the "new" mean is used? In 5yrs the map above may be considered normal. Is this a dumb question?

Not dumb at all, the drought index is pretty opaque unless you dig into the components. So the overall outlook is based on a number of inputs, including Palmer index, soil moisture, streamflow, and standardized precip index. 

The SPI works based on the history of observed rainfall amounts, so that will be dynamic to changing climate conditions (i.e. if dry years become more common the index value will add less to the overall drought classification). Soil moisture is tied to the new climate normals as well (1991-2020). And Palmer index is more or less water in minus water out, so it doesn't really matter whether the climate is changing for that. 

They all have their strengths and weaknesses. Like the Palmer operates on a 9 month timescale, so rapidly evolving droughts are late to show up in its index value. 

[Lava Rock]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not dumb at all, the drought index is pretty opaque unless you dig into the components. So the overall outlook is based on a number of inputs, including Palmer index, soil moisture, streamflow, and standardized precip index. 

The SPI works based on the history of observed rainfall amounts, so that will be dynamic to changing climate conditions (i.e. if dry years become more common the index value will add less to the overall drought classification). Soil moisture is tied to the new climate normals as well (1991-2020). And Palmer index is more or less water in minus water out, so it doesn't really matter whether the climate is changing for that. 

They all have their strengths and weaknesses. Like the Palmer operates on a 9 month timescale, so rapidly evolving droughts are late to show up in its index value. 

thanks for the explanation.

[Whineminster]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m already dry getting burn patches before Mem Day. Should look like El Paso by the 4th.

Can we at least get el paso heat then?!? Cold and dry in summer is worse then hot and wet. 

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not dumb at all, the drought index is pretty opaque unless you dig into the components. So the overall outlook is based on a number of inputs, including Palmer index, soil moisture, streamflow, and standardized precip index. 

The SPI works based on the history of observed rainfall amounts, so that will be dynamic to changing climate conditions (i.e. if dry years become more common the index value will add less to the overall drought classification). Soil moisture is tied to the new climate normals as well (1991-2020). And Palmer index is more or less water in minus water out, so it doesn't really matter whether the climate is changing for that. 

They all have their strengths and weaknesses. Like the Palmer operates on a 9 month timescale, so rapidly evolving droughts are late to show up in its index value. 

Recommends

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Drought

[kdxken]

44 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Furnace on the 06z gfs next week starting Monday!   Four day torcher!

Nobody believes those op runs.

[kdxken]

66/39 . I mean you got to tell your grandkids.

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nobody believes those op runs.

I didn't say it was correct.  Euro and GEM were pretty ugly besides Memorial day (Tuesday was also hot on the Euro though).

[Typhoon Tip]

Depending on how fast this circumstance translate through the area, these positive tilting/ albeit weakening total trough spaces can sometimes over produce - the synoptic signal gets surpassed by the convection rain rate ... at local scales.  But the positive tilt of the trough, maybe some quasi training too.  Anyway, nice cloud photogenic displays with crispy TCU.  Like that!

Saturday

   ...New England...
   Diurnal heating amidst lower 60s surface dewpoints will likely yield
   250-1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon.  A frontal segment will
   move east across the region during the afternoon and provide a focus
   for isolated-scattered thunderstorm development.  A couple of
   locally intense multicells may yield wind damage or marginally
   severe hail for a few hours before diminishing.