Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, kdxken said:

Welcome to beech leaf disease, and a world where one of the most important trees in our forests may go the way of the American chestnut — lost in a decade or two.

https://www.ctinsider.com/columnist/article/Robert-Miller-Across-CT-formerly-lush-beech-17187205.php

Hasn’t made it here yet. My american chestnut trees are thriving this year too.

image.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

on average it's been a cool and dry spring - and maybe a handful of summer like days so far? I can't imagine it has been THAT much better elsewhere. 

I do hope we can get a consistent string of 70's and 80's going forward. 

Morch, Napril, and now Mayorch have all been AN. Dry yes.. not cool 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, kdxken said:

Welcome to beech leaf disease, and a world where one of the most important trees in our forests may go the way of the American chestnut — lost in a decade or two.

https://www.ctinsider.com/columnist/article/Robert-Miller-Across-CT-formerly-lush-beech-17187205.php

Substitute "beech bark disease" and that could be the headline in 1922, but the species hangs on.  Comparing it to chestnut blight is probably (hopefully) not valid, for 2 reasons.  First, as important as beech is in the Eastern hardwood forests, chestnut was likely the single most abundant tree species in that forest pre-blight.  Some accounts state it was one in every four trees.  Second, the blight killed trees quickly, and to date we haven't seen that kind of quick death in beech. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

You're too young to have experienced the 1960s.  :D

The drought in 65-66 was no joke in these parts.  Quabbin set the low bar for water levels way beyond anything we've seen.  A couple years ago it got to the lowest level since 66, but wasn't close to that.

quabbin-reservoir-drought-level-oct-13-1

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, radarman said:

The drought in 65-66 was no joke in these parts.  Quabbin set the low bar for water levels way beyond anything we've seen.  A couple years ago it got to the lowest level since 66, but wasn't close to that.

quabbin-reservoir-drought-level-oct-13-1

That is crazy. If water can't enter that sluice gate, then there's no water to be distributed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, radarman said:

The drought in 65-66 was no joke in these parts.  Quabbin set the low bar for water levels way beyond anything we've seen.  A couple years ago it got to the lowest level since 66, but wasn't close to that.

quabbin-reservoir-drought-level-oct-13-1

One can only imagine the dire tweets that would be firing if that happened again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a comment on the Euro:  That is a climate event on the 00z cycle. The hyperbole in that bold is to connote, it has more  significance in the total circulation mode than a run-of-the-mill heat wave 

That represents 3 consecutive runs from this model source showing this - and all three worked dangerously elevated HI values throughout the Corn Belt/Lakes region.   Yesterday's subtly less 12z complexion, comparing to the prior 00z run, I believe pretty strongly was just the diurnal respiration of the troposphere, where at the dawn end of the cycle deflates compared to the ballooning at the other end.  In other words, ...accounting for that 'diurnal tide' all three of these runs, back-to-back, appear to be quite similar, thus demonstrating high continuity.  

It's op-ed on the Euro in a vacuum; verbatim, that's a nasty nasty rip-and-read - and again.  Only this time, the suggestion yesterday that the Corn Belt/Lakes heat might destine into NE ...is outright depicted to do so.   ...now, there's other guidance.  06z cycle, notwithstanding too. 

It even goes out with a whimper at the end of that run.  An aspect about these bigger climate buster events, they tend to 'fade away' - perhaps at the rate of the planetary wave function(s) that foot them.   ..etc.  the a speed of R-wave migration.  They don't end with the big Hollywood idea or visualization.  Not always true though...I think 2012 had a heat wave like this that ended in a derecho. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup... exactly what I imagined would be the case... the GFS is petty in fabricating any possible physical reason to not bring heat east of the Hudson permissible by its electron consumption.

At least nowhere near the proficiency of the Euro.  I don't care about getting the heat here so much, but ...I just hate the GFS and feel it's fraudulent as a guidance some times - like some percentage of it ( frustration hyperbole) is 'faked' with params that get exposed at times.  

But looking at the ens means of those respective camps ... looks like the operational GFS might be too sensitive in those idiosyncrasies it's doing. Like, hold onto a single contoured closed 500 mb, and then moving it so rapidly around a clockwise rotation into the SE U.S..  It made sense with the bigger version of this that happened a couple weeks ago, but this thing is tiny by mass field comparison, and moving clockwise is reverse angular torsional and should cause it to spin down/be less able to offset that NVA influence from that movement through the medium.   It's just hanging onto it too long - K.I.S.S.

In the foreground... it would also be nice if the Euro is more correct because it saves Sunday and Monday. 

The GFS spent one run looking more Euro like...and we had agreement with those two guidance. But summarily overnight, it tries to go half way back ...which is just enough to ruin the holiday.   It's almost comical. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, kdxken said:

Is that some special variety that can beat the blight? The chestnuts I have all die once they get a couple inches in diameter.

Mine haven't reached that caliper yet although I do have a wild one in the back woods that's a good 2-3" diameter now and beginning to fissure on the bark...so we'll see how it does.

Most of mine are from here:

https://www.gonativetrees.com/american-chestnut/

Quote

We have concluded that we prefer accelerated natural selection (the ACCF approach) in the near term, since it is unclear how to remove the Asian genome from the forest once it is introduced. The weakened blight genome is likely already out in the environment, and already it may be becoming helpful. The outlook has definitely improved in recent years, due to a combination of the above research work. It is now possible to plant this species with reasonable hope for survival.

About twenty years ago, we obtained fifty manually cross-pollinated seedlings from old survivors (Tactic 2) and planted them as a recovery grove. The plants came from nuts that were collected in the year 2000. Voles ate one-third of the seedlings over the first winter, after which we surrounded each plant with 1/4 “- mesh steel screen tubes. After seven to ten years, the remaining plants had grown to nearly thirty feet in height and began to produce nuts. Now, twenty years later, about six trees still survive. They are forty to fifty feet tall and over one foot DBH. Two of them exhibit the best resistance features, i.e. minimal sprouts at the trunk base, a nicely formed crown, and no branch or crown die-off. They all have swollen burls on their trunks, but seem to be growing through it. In other words, the blight is present but the trees still survive and produce nuts each year. So if the geneticist calculations are correct, then we are most of the way through the winnowing process. We have collected up to 2000 seeds per year from the two best trees in the grove. We now collect seed from the two best plants (pictured below), so the blight resistance may be improved by as much as a factor of 2.5 billion [(40/4 billion) X (2/50)].

We offer our seedlings to recovery projects, and we can offer advice to planters to prevent animal damage and related infant mortality issues. Based on the above information, we can estimate that at least two out of three seedlings should exhibit favorable blight resistance, at least sufficient to allow plants to live for twenty years or longer. The plants are 100% American genome. Starting three to get two survivors is a big improvement from a few decades ago, when it was nearly impossible to do so. Please contact us if you have questions or wish to obtain seedlings for a recovery project.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS lost the Tuesday torch. It's been really overaggressive with some of these backdoors in the extended. It used to be that if a global picked up on a hint of one you could almost guarantee it'd come to fruition. Now the GFS tries to accelerate any westward trending seagull fart back to ALB.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...