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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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I mean that's more than caving - that's not even in the same f'n zipcode for sensible weather.  Lol

I posted about this, this morning ...that the GFS really should begin correcting and modulating toward the Euro -

This was an even bigger leap in doing so than I imagined would be the case for the single/next run. I figured it'd be a 2 steps ahead 1 back.  But this?  I mean, that's a whole scale redraw.

 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now the GFS is nicer than the euro. :lol:  

I was just thinking that...  lol -

like wtf

honestly though, d6  - right?   I mean the models sort of have the right to correct things at this range.  I'm not sure we should skewering any of then.  I mean not that anyone has, just sayn'

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1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

how dare we question the great DIT!!

Thats a huge move in 1 run on the GFS 

Reminds me of the opposite season in the old days of modeling ...  A day 7 GFS would sometimes depict a pancaked flow escaping the east coast ...  all but completely flat. Then, in one run it'd go from nondescript kink on a boundary ,fleeing seaward, to a full-on Norwegian model low replete with coastal impacts.  Seemingly abbra cadabra

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Not really surprised with this GFS run really. Always thought it was a bit too aggressive with keeping the low closed off for so long given the indications of the trough lifting/de-amplifying. This isn't to say this weekend will be precipitation free. There's certainly going to be some lift around and with a warm/moist llvl airmass we'll see areas of downpours and thunderstorms develop during the day. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Not really surprised with this GFS run really. Always thought it was a bit too aggressive with keeping the low closed off for so long given the indications of the trough lifting/de-amplifying. This isn't to say this weekend will be precipitation free. There's certainly going to be some lift around and with a warm/moist llvl airmass we'll see areas of downpours and thunderstorms develop during the day. 

Actually ...it's attempting to surge the heat in ... capping/CIN on Monday.  

But prior to that, the more trough coherence over Friday/Sat actually reenters the possibility of more convection concerns.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually ...it's attempting to surge the heat in ... capping/CIN on Monday.  

But prior to that, the more trough coherence over Friday/Sat actually reenters the possibility of more convection concerns.

Hoping for some strong convective chances Friday/Saturday. Won't be anything crazy for the region as a whole as lapse rates will blow but maybe some localized wet microbust potential 

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