dendrite Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 41.7° Not summer 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 Looks like they met somewhere in the middle. Sat/Sun 70+ with showers now on the gfs instead of 40s/50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like they met somewhere in the middle. Sat/Sun 70+ with showers now on the gfs instead of 40s/50s. It’s unsettled and much cooler now. All we need are NE winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro caving Horrible, another holiday weekend potentially ruined. I’m hoping it’s scattered showers and storms and in the 70s opposed to the 50s and rain scenario yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s unsettled and much cooler now. All we need are NE winds. For sure. Definitely not a summer weekend. GFS trended a bit warmer, but Euro trended cooler and added the clouds and precip. Euro def caving more. GFS is still miserable on Monday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 A washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Looks like they met somewhere in the middle. Sat/Sun 70+ with showers now on the gfs instead of 40s/50s. Yeah on east side of ULL it’ll pump warm, somewhat humid conditions in with pop up storms in afternoon. Not awful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 Can have a beautiful mid spring weekend on a Canadian airmass in late May. At this point, after looking at the tele’s, hoping the block flexes to send the door down to the mid Atlantic. We avoid the rain, and have dry mid 70’s. Not summer, but great for BBQ’s, hiking and camping. Best chances for a nice weekend with this setup are further north and east into NNE. Pretty damn remarkable timing. I mean, it’s probabilistically rare to muck up a 4-day window this time of the year. But here we are. Again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 36F for the low. Crisp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 2 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah on east side of ULL it’ll pump warm, somewhat humid conditions in with pop up storms in afternoon. Not awful we’ve gone from all out summer to not awful in 24 hrs .. not a great trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 1 minute ago, ma blizzard said: we’ve gone from all out summer to not awful in 24 hrs .. not a great trend. Gfs was awful yesterday. It was a repeat of last years cold washout. This one is just scattered pop ups and 70’s. Not ideal, but not awful either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Horrible, another holiday weekend potentially ruined. I’m hoping it’s scattered showers and storms and in the 70s opposed to the 50s and rain scenario yesterday. boating on saturday with sleepover not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 Looks like a push of heat for a couple of days after Mem Day and then back to seasonable or so. Don’t see any signs of extended heat for awhile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a push of heat for a couple of days after Mem Day and then back to seasonable or so. Don’t see any signs of extended heat for awhile. Uninstall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 58 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: boating on saturday with sleepover not looking good. I was going to do the same Sunday up in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 Wrt to the Euro 00z run... Not intended as prognostic or deterministic effort. This is just a scalar implication of that 192 hour synopsis. Spanning the Corn Belt/Lakes region around 168 hours, a circumstance approaches a "Pacific NW" heat event. Probably would not match that exceptional rarity that took place up there, late last June, but both then, and this Euro now, are examples of "synergistic heat waves. " Their exact magnitude comparison aside, the phenomena is paramount. 24+ C, 850 mb temperatures looms over the entire region, with pock nodes to 25! (indicating 850 was adiabatically breached) over a region the size of Texas. Leading, modest seasonal rain deficits. That will edge the thermodynamics toward the drier theta-e side of the "heat dome climate" typology. Then, under solar max radiative forcing. That is an over-lay of less-than-obvious initial conditions, silently interacting factors that support one another: the results exceed the more obvious (non-silent) input metrics. Earlier expansion under very intense sun, feeds heat back in... etc. The system over-achieves. Hint, we don't want to over achieve +25C at 850 mb over Chicago under June Sun Bottom line, connotes historic temperatures. It would be worth looking those up out that way, should this 192 ( would last thru D9 too), become more confident/urgent. Possibly all-time of June. That scenario on there looks on paper like antecedent circumstances are converging there. Questions is, ...where does that go? Not sure it's going to ever get here...but that's close! The Euro has been signaling this -PNAP surge for the last 3 days, ...the EPS has been on board with at least moderately expansive geopotential anomalies. The -PNA over all is clearly the footprint hemisphere leading, so ... in wait of happenstance timed/embedded wave mechanics than super-impose a ridge genesis, is also a bit of a positive feed-back. The operational Euro run shows less restraint in synergizing all these factors. The ens means of the GEFs and GEPs have been more similar to the EPS for May 30 thru June 4th or so during the last three days, which reflect solutions that don't support those erstwhile GFS close-happy offset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: I was going to do the same Sunday up in Maine. sunday looks a bit better. probably still a bit wet/cloudy in the morning, but hoping for some afternoon sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wrt to the Euro 00z run... Not intended as prognostic or deterministic effort. This is just a scalar implication of that 192 hour synopsis. Spanning the Corn Belt/Lakes region around 192 hours, a circumstance approaches a "Pacific NW" heat event. Probably would not match that exceptional rarity that took place up there, late last June, but both then, and this Euro now, are examples of "synergistic heat waves. " Their exact magnitude comparison aside, the phenomena is paramount. 24+ C, 850 mb temperatures looms over the entire region, with pock nodes to 25! (indicating 850 was adiabatically breached) over a region the size of Texas. Leading, modest seasonal rain deficits. That will edge the thermodynamics toward the drier theta-e side of the "heat dome climate" typology. Then, under solar max radiative forcing. That is an over-lay of less-than-obvious initial conditions, silently interacting factors that support one another: the results exceed the more obvious (non-silent) input metrics. The system over-achieves. Hint, we don't want to over achieve +25C at 850 mb over Chicago under June Sun Bottom line, connotes historic temperatures. It would be worth looking those up out that way, should this 192 ( would would last thru D9 too), become more confident/urgent. Possibly all-time of June. That scenario on there looks on paper like antecedent circumstances are converging there. Questions is, ...where does that go? Not sure it's going to ever get here...but that's close! The Euro has been signaling this -PNAP surge for the last 3 days, ...the EPS has been on board with at least moderately expansive geopotential anomalies. The -PNA over all is clearly the footprint hemisphere leading, so ... in wait of happenstance timed/embedded wave mechanics than super-impose a ridge genesis, is also a bit of a positive feed-back. The operational Euro run shows less restraint in synergizing all these factors. The ens means of the GEFs and GEPs have been more similar to the EPS for May 30 thru June 4th or so during the last three days, which reflect solutions that don't support those erstwhile GFS close-happy offset. I pray that never gets here. Its funny how often the PNA and PDO are out of sync....I mean, obviously the former is much more stochastic in nature, but we pulled off essentially a neutral mean PNA in the aggregate for the DM period last winter during one of the coldest PDO's on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s been here for over a week I haven't moved to ur state... YET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I pray that never gets here. Its funny how often the PNA and PDO are out of sync....I mean, obviously the former is much more stochastic in nature, but we pulled off essentially a neutral mean PNA in the aggregate for the DM period last winter during one of the coldest PDO's on record. Just adding an opinion here to that... Anecdotally based on my own observations, since the 1990s, that seems to be more and more observable - a kind of 'correlation breakdown' increasing in frequency. All winter long it was remarkable watching the La Nina decouple, ...recouple, only to decouple... The MJO was faux attributed to forcing circulation modes, only to have the weekly publications have to abandon the previous week's assessment/causality. Couple of examples of longer and intermediate terms teleconnectors there. But even the intraseasonal/weekly modes have been less dependable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 34 this AM, crisp. PQI had 29 but that's not unusual for late May at that site. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 24 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I haven't moved to ur state... YET... What town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just adding an opinion here to that... Anecdotally based on my own observations, since the 1990s, that seems to be more and more observable - a kind of 'correlation breakdown' increasing in frequency. All winter long it was remarkable watching the La Nina decouple, ...recouple, only to decouple... The MJO was faux attributed to forcing circulation modes, only to have the weekly publications have to abandon the previous week's assessment/causality. Couple of examples of longer and intermediate terms teleconnectors there. But even the intraseasonal/weekly modes have been less dependable. That is exactly what I am driving at....yea, PNA is stochastic and prone to shorter term wave breaking, however, we are seeing the incongruency even at a seasonal level. This is something I have noticed in doing seasonal outlooks....you can't just assume positive correlation in the Pacific. You need to dig in and unearth more esoteric relationships, such as the tendency for east-based la nina to exert a powerful RNA presence in December. I think this is why la nina events of that ilk tend to improve later in the season, more like an el nino, as opposed to canonical la nina events, which tend to be front loaded. It was right there in neon lights within my data last season, but I completely missed the forest through the trees, and forecast that RNA pulse in January, instead. Dumb, considering my primary ENSO analog was 2010-2011, which was a harbinger of that very behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 So I think what's gong to happen ... the oper. GFS will correct toward the Euro for the Mem day weekend. The 00 renditions are in reasonable agreement, wrt to the handling of that trough eject through the MV at least through D4 ... but they part company rather extremely as that mess approaches the eastern seaboard. The GFS over-deepens the Rockies aspect on or around D6 ..7, and that causes the immediate downstream wave lengths to buckle between 90 and 70W. That scaffold grabs the vestigial trough remnant, closes it off, and sends it S astride the MA over the remainder of weekend - which I think is bs overall ... My hunch is that the GFS tendency to lower heights in troughs and nadirs, too much, is causing all that. Fwiw - the 06z corrected the D4/5 west, and that immediately corrected the structure along the EC ( transitively) ... As we age through these days this week, we'll likely see more solutions like the 06z ... 'fill' it in, wash it out, more so like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 6z Euro trended less bad, i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 6z Euro trended less bad, i think I didn't think the 00z Euro was that bad. The 06z may be 'better' or whatever, but the 00z layout was weak gradient and UN-GFS like. It actually looked like it had some convective nature to the QPF sourcing, ...maybe some entertaining thunder? But the 850s are mild to warm, and that whole thing opens up a little bit on the 30th ... Anything is better than the GFS ... man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like a push of heat for a couple of days after Mem Day and then back to seasonable or so. Don’t see any signs of extended heat for awhile. We tried to tell him . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 Who in their right mind would have expectations of extended heat the first 2 weeks of June? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Who in their right mind would have expectations of extended heat the first 2 weeks of June? Hmm. I wonder. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now