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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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Jesus....

I cannot imagine a synopsis for Sunday into Mem Day, more diametric to the GFS than what the Euro has, without it just being on another planet. 

It seems to me there are two sensitivities vying for 'f-up the holiday rites'

1  -NAO;  it's out there as a wild card.  The Euro's been flip flopping with magnitude and placement.  So has the GFS... But in either scenario, if that gets westerly limb over the domain, we have BD issues regardless of the closed deal - so this is kind of  a personal obs/addendum.

2   ...that closed low.  The Euro has zero, the GFS is miserable... the GGEM is in between. 

The Euro actually sends Monday afternoon toward HHH while  what ... 52 with east windy rhea into CC Bay on the GFS.

Note, the NAO can often be modeled negative, and just not be negative when the time comes.  It may not be factoring ... just sayn' so long as it's there.

 

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out of the GEFs individually, I saw 6 total that could offer support to the operational version for Sunday/Monday.   Otherwise, none do - the operational is also the most amplified of those members that do carry the closed low/weakness shit parade.

They are in the minority.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We nervous.

If it weren't beyond D6 I'd say we have an epic model battle going - the problem is, that far in advance sort of gives them all a lot of latitude to f-up.

I think if we're still in disparate state on D4, the fight's begun?

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