radarman Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stein subareas of subareas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 13 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice pics Cory. I haven’t heard thunder or seen any lightning either. Thanks! Storm was pretty meh, but who needs damage when you are a homeowner. Would have a been nice to get a bit more rain, but we will take whatever we can get at this point. Windows wide open for the foreseeable future, hope it continues right into the fall! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 COC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GFS Memorial Day weekend disaster. Euro mid summer.. Interesting battle, both ensembles say GFS is on an island.. My personal hunch is, that will continue as we press further onward into/thru the warm season. Then, next autumn, GFS model performance will improve again. Lot of words to describe what is subtly, albeit importantly different between the GFS operational run and it's competing other model types: As faster wintertime basal state geostrophic wind velocity, once again, proves it is the new paradigm during winters ... first creeps on during OND ... the operational GFS model then 'defaults' back to having that uncanny performance edge in that D6+ range. As an aside, I noticed all this and its knack for that, began during this era of more rapid version upgrades. Hypothetically: 10% better in performance, at that range, isn't saying much in terms of larger/super synoptic handling? No. However, small movements with big objects can have ginormous impacts at smaller sub-continental/regional scales. But also, these small morphology matters to the behavior of storm genesis, as well a 'atmospheric logistics' with embedded features et el. This may be why over the last several seasons, the general voice has noted the Euro has faltered to the GFS more and more during outer mid and extended handling. In short, I believe it's because the GFS' speed biases - but here's the thing. It's not 'right' per se? Its error is being hidden by the tendency for faster overall hemispheres ... it looks right. The old adage, 'right for the wrong reason' The speeding tendency is a cumulative one - it grows out in time ( I have noted..). By D6 ... 8, particularly in the winter season, it will routinely be some 6 to as much at 10 dm colder N of the jets. That steeper gradient ...instructs the higher velocity. It's simple. Something about it thermal dynamics of cloud and latent heat and UVM budgeting complexity in the NCEP's version of Navier Stokes LOL. But that model isn't necessarily going to stop attempting dump cold into vortexes, just because it is summer - necessarily. summer, vs winter. It may not apply in this case with Mem day... I'm just op-ed'ing about it. It seems all the models are having difficulty with the -NAO mode change. Dimensions of volume and timing ... I think if we -NAO, there's going to be a BD proneness, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: Thanks! Storm was pretty meh, but who needs damage when you are a homeowner. Would have a been nice to get a bit more rain, but we will take whatever we can get at this point. Windows wide open for the foreseeable future, hope it continues right into the fall! We did not have thunder, lightning, or rain. Just dangerous looking skies. Bust. Yea, everyone is out there enjoying this one today and more incoming. Spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 2 hours ago, radarman said: subareas of subareas I picked up .70" in last nights storm. Another .50" in last weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I picked up .70" in last nights storm. Another .50" in last weeks storm. how's bragging camp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: how's bragging camp I never get to brag about snow here so may as well get jazzed about summer showers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Mother's day was ruined... Now mem day weekend destroyed by the GFS... ? Starting last year, that makes all holidays destroyed in a relentless series spanning over a years... kinda interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Mother's day was ruined... Now mem day weekend destroyed by the GFS... ? Starting last year, that makes all holidays destroyed in a relentless bad luck thing. kinda interesting was about to say .. that's an ugly look, Memorial Day weekend canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mother's day was ruined... Now mem day weekend destroyed by the GFS... ? Starting last year, that makes all holidays destroyed in a relentless series spanning over a years... kinda interesting Lol at useless op runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol at useless op runs Cut off low with Euro trending towards it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol at useless op runs Is that what you said last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2022 Author Share Posted May 23, 2022 selling the "cutoff"...if that can even be characterized as a cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2022 Author Share Posted May 23, 2022 The difference is more between closed low or closed low becoming an open wave and de-amplifying against cut-off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Danger ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 6z EPS sort of had a wetter look. I guess it doesn’t have to mean weekend washout, but something tells me at least part of it may be meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2022 Author Share Posted May 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Danger ahead EML's? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: EML's? If it’s wet it’s dews and storms with Ull well southwest of us. Humid south flow .. also possible it trends so far west we end up with ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2022 Author Share Posted May 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it’s wet it’s dews and storms with Ull well southwest of us. Humid south flow .. also possible it trends so far west we end up with ridging Should certainly see some convection with this system. Maybe opportunity for some strong stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it’s wet it’s dews and storms with Ull well southwest of us. Humid south flow .. also possible it trends so far west we end up with ridging Can already envision someone thinking the weekend is fantastic if it’s showery at 69/68 solely because the dew is upper 60s… temp and weather be damned. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Can already envision someone thinking the weekend is fantastic if it’s showery at 69/68 solely because the dew is upper 60s… temp and weather be damned. Certainly better than last years Noreaster with temps in 50’s and 4-5” of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 GEFS, GFS, Canadian all trended worse for Saturday and Sunday.. I bet euro caves at 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: selling the "cutoff"...if that can even be characterized as a cutoff yeeeah.. on the fence personally. That weird cut off three weeks ago, that pinched at first as though it would stay E and spare, ...did that huge clockwise track spanning some 7 days...only to come back up the coast as a smearing vestige. It also served as an 'inverted block' because the high pressure initially over Maine couldn't sink SE of the Cape. It was sort of anchored in a position to keep us in an east flow. Remember? I mean it was like 4 dry but cloud days with drilling E wind, followed by 4 sunny but still drilling E wind when all that happened. These inverted blocks happen too - This thing that the GFS and GGEM reverted to in recent run cycles, hint at doing a similar inverted aspect ... hold the high to a N position E of Boston. That said, the cut off isn't anywhere close to the same frame-up momentum, as that big gyre back whence. The other thing, I've noticed this in the past with models over many years actually - they seem prone in the mid range to disproportionately drive surface responses from weak mid level mechanics. The GFS has a single close 500 mb contour, ...filling at that, as it rotates closer to the MA. Yet N of up the coast results near gale CCB coming into the Bite of NY. I don't know if that's really true - seems a bit too much of a response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 48 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GEFS, GFS, Canadian all trended worse for Saturday and Sunday.. I bet euro caves at 12z GGEM looked better to me - fwiw. still ends up with piping high retreating E ...which isn't hugely warm, no. But it looks fair aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Euro op tells the GFS to screw off this weekend. 70s & 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Euro op tells the GFS to screw off this weekend. 70s & 80s Yeah - was just about to post that. GFS doesn't have much support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Euro with the Memorial Day torch. Well into the 90s. The GFS is upper 40s. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 23, 2022 Share Posted May 23, 2022 Not enough LOLs for this 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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