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May 2022 Thread


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"Still analyzing incoming model data for the potential for storms today with several
different camps out there, the HRRR being the most aggressive
breaking the cap later this afternoon with more models seemingly
jumping on board. Still difficult to discern when/where
convection will pop, but if it does it will likely go severe
rapidly. We will continue to monitor"

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I can still see some of the torch spots (BED, LWM, ASH) getting 90-92.  Not sure I get that hot here today

I was walking the dog and it felt kinda cool.  Looks like we picked up a little rain as well

There's no question this 2am to noon period of time was either:

not handled well by the models.

not interpreted well by those looking at the models.

some combination of both. 

Most likely, it's that 3rd option there.  

Either way, that's going to make heat advisory an interesting test.  No doubt, eating up the dawn to 10am or noon period is going to retard heating potential, but how much or little?  

It's hard maybe for one to get their mind around the idea, but the adiabats are very warm over top and probably there is a poorly analyzed warm front difused and muddling matters further.  But like I just said, there's a western edge to this hell moving pretty quickly east per sat review this hour, which extapolates progressively.  As it passes E, it is exposing the low level under those warm adiabats to high hot sun. That will thermally couple higher and higher, and the temp will like respond quite a bit. 

Also - that MCS that rolled out of Missouri over the last day, seemed to fall apart and lose identiy over PA yesterday, but no - that festering ulcer that mimics at TD zygote SE of the Cape came back to life overnight; it didn't help either.  FIT, ASH, BED, ORH... all with N drift to the wind this morning.  Couldn't of ruined ( at least the morning aspects...) any better without it being a category 5 back door bomb.  lol

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's no question this 2am to noon period of time was either:

not handled well by the models.

not interpreted well by those looking at the models.

some combination of both. 

Most likely, it's that 3rd option there.  

Either way, that's going to make heat advisory an interesting test.  No doubt, eating up the dawn to 10am or noon period is going to retard heating potential, but how much or little?  

It's hard maybe for one to get their mind around the idea, but the adiabats are very warm over top and probably there is a poorly analyzed warm front difused and muddling matters further.  But like I just said, there's a western edge to this hell moving pretty quickly east per sat review this hour, which extapolates progressively.  As it passes E, it is exposing the low level under those warm adiabats to high hot sun. That will thermally couple higher and higher, and the temp will like respond quite a bit. 

Also - that MCS that rolled out of Missouri over the last day, seemed to fall apart and lose identiy over PA yesterday, but no - that festering ulcer that mimics at TD zygote SE of the Cape came back to life overnight; it didn't help either.  FIT, ASH, BED, ORH... all with N drift to the wind this morning - that's backed poorly assessed damage to a forecast incarnate.  Couldn't of ruined ( at least the morning aspects...) any better without it being a category 5 back door bomb.  lol

No doubt, eating up the dawn to 10am or noon period is going to retard heating potential, but how much or little?  

 

Unfortunately I don't think it's going to hinder the heat that much. Hope I'm wrong.

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We never really got the warmup here yesterday. Earlier in the week it was progged for upper 70s and I ended up with a high of 69° and it quickly fell into the 50s toward sunset. So we still had the taint of that onshore flow airmass over us to start the night. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We never really got the warmup here yesterday. Earlier in the week it was progged for upper 70s and I ended up with a high of 69° and it quickly fell into the 50s toward sunset. So we still had the taint of that onshore flow airmass over us to start the night. 

It's a clad point to make, Brain.

Another way to say ... the writing was on the wall by noon yesterday, when it became really obvious the day was - aslo? - busting cold.  This belay today, really got its start 24 hours ago when we get right down to it.

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17 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Just water clinging to everything here. When it comes it will be steamy. 

Suns out here and the dews here are spectacular.

I think everyone is in for a special treat soon when all of New England is under full sun.

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22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Highest tor probabilities in the entire nation are in Maine today :lol: 

it seems like the increasingly automated reliance - I'm gaslighting a little here, admittedly ... - throughout the field ( and I've seen this in other areas of society too - ) is causing a dumb-down effect.  Questionable competency ...almost carelessness may be more apropos, is suggested now and again.

Of course two things I have personally noticed about my age group and myself including...  One, we also get smarter as we age, just existentially forced - I guess those of the 20 to 40 year old range don't have the advantage.  But two, we lose patience and think everyone's an asshole.  

Now... trying to parse out reality from personal bias has it's own challenges LOL.   But no - there's something else to this observation that probably has truth to it.  We see more silliness in operating the world. In weather-related matters, resulting in things like today... It's not "all the time" no. But more so than during hey day era of great disco analytics, the 1990s through early 2000s.  

There's other socio-babble reasons too.  Like .. point and click forecasts - I mean hire more staff and populate the f'ers with eye ball material please.  Jesus ... that's budget cuts from whatever macro eco bs that's not related to dumbing down - or maybe it is, indirectly.  Like, we are multi generational, convenience addled by the Industrial bubble society button pushers now... Inside of that bubble, things get taken for granted, eventually more and more so - it's intuitively inevitable. And decisions get made that are dumb. Like, we can take the salaries out of entry level operations jobs...  yeah.   

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