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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean it's like an homage to hour special little meteorology here that WPC doesn't apparently know how to account for/ or is even aware.

I mentioned this morning ... but that loop clearly smacked of a shallow/diffused BD having crept into eastern sections prior to dawn.  FIT and ORH have been variable/averaging S/SW ....while BOS - BVY axis has been ENE all morning up under that latex paint. 

It's breaking up now. Also, the SW motion from early wrt to the masses off the shore has also ceased and appears to be moving back N.  Looks like it's washing out.  Logan still E at 9mph though. 

Definitely has that look on the visible. You can see that crap banking up against the spine of the apps in ME. There's even "reverse clearing" moving in from offshore. It's a day to drive rt 26 from Bethel to Errol and see the contrast.

Last weekend the same kind of thing happened with that backdoor dropping in and then slamming the door on any interesting convection the next couple days for eastern NNE as per the usual script.

COD-GOES-East-subregional-New_England.02.20220520.202117-over=map-bars=.gif

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E wind made it here...  78 to 67 in 20 minutes.   Air carries just a soupcon of oceany scent to it, too, in Ayer, some 35 mi from the water by wind.

Man, talk about a geography hell bent of ruining a warm summery vibe.  It was about to transition into one of those utopia evenings, with comfortably tepid air and distance Lilac aromas.  good energy -

Now,... low tide and soul suppressing cold - 

This is gonna have to be one hell of an impressive warm flip - and it's not even clear that there's a real warm front in place.  The boundary WPC is analyzing, doesn't seem to differentiate.. The real warm air is W of the Apps still. 

So, now that Labrador is pissing on the evening festivities... it'll probably have us all the way down to 58 - yet it's supposed to be 94 tomorrow.  It'll be interesting.

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46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

E wind made it here...  78 to 67 in 20 minutes.   Air carries just a soupcon of oceany scent to it, too, in Ayer, some 35 mi from the water by wind.

Man, talk about a geography hell bent of ruining a warm summery vibe.  It was about to transition into one of those utopia evenings, with comfortably tepid air and distance Lilac aromas.  good energy -

Now,... low tide and soul suppressing cold - 

This is gonna have to be one hell of an impressive warm flip - and it's not even clear that there's a real warm front in place.  The boundary WPC is analyzing, doesn't seem to differentiate.. The real warm air is W of the Apps still. 

So, now that Labrador is pissing on the evening festivities... it'll probably have us all the way down to 58 - yet it's supposed to be 94 tomorrow.  It'll be interesting.

Temps have only been between 60-63 here all day under clouds, forecast high was 75. Forecast low of 58 with a high of 92 tomorrow, if this weekend doesn’t pan out we have another clown range heat wave to forecast around the 1st of June. 
 

 

636926E7-C22E-4291-8404-BC2AD53A0454.png

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Exceptional heatwave signaled ... one that may significantly outclass tomorrow and Sunday - should the signal work.

Broadly scope to finite considerations:

1   La Nina spring --> summer relays, are notorious heat producers over the eastern continental middle latitudes.    

2  Erstwhile propensity for rebound eastern N/A ridging ( below the 60th parallel) and the Pacific relay into western N/A nearing -1 SD, combined, are a correlative fit.  

3  Operational guidance and ensemble means (among the three majors)  have been hinting at the emergence of a more important ridge anomaly ballooning over the #1 and #2 inference  ... That converging teleconnector nods to the conceptual value of those model runs that are doing that. I wouldn't suggest the 18z GFS is right - obviously for it's being Day 9 through 13. But I suggest looking for model solutions like this going forward, spanning that period of time.

This is for 'proof of concept'

I may start a thread over the next days at some point if it gets more confidence.

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21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The 850’s don’t look more than 18 maybe a stray 19 tommorrow so ..92-93-94?

launch pad of 60

The 850s won't mean much if the wind is S.   ...blah blah indirect southerly marine contamination etc. 

The last two days had the wind more westerly, but this stupid v-max that's falling apart ( actually...) was trying - in the NAM anyway - to monkey wrench the wind into a S direction, basically eliminating Saturday from even 90 from eastern CT to eastern Mass...  The 18z NAM is warmed substantially. It's probably not as much factorable.

If you are right about the 850s, and wind does become WSW established during the day... less clouds, it will be interesting if the mixing depth gets that high.   mm, 18C adiabat from that sigma supports 91 or so... but... that doesn't account for the 100 meter to surface super adiabat/slope toward the right.  It's more likely that 94 as the ping high.  

If the wind is west and less clouds, and the 850s are warmer ...I think the Euro is closer to 20?  no -   anyway, it will be interesting if the 850 is the adiabat; that probably puts 96 .. 97 into the parking lots and urban gang decision making -lol

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