May 2022 Thread

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GGEM brings it from DTX to BOS for how much/little it's worth -

Hate to say, some kind of warm anomaly fits this:

How far it actually goes or what orientation, who knows...

The BN stuff is done. But…

Below normal is nice from mid May through summer. Saying “spring is here” on May 10th will get you punched in the face.

We got no help when we needed it.
 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The BN stuff is done. But…

Below normal is nice from mid May through summer. Saying “spring is here” on May 10th will get you punched in the face.

We got no help when we needed it.
 

 

We’ll go from a BN march, april, and first week of May straight into summer. 

[SnoSki14]

An early heat spell at Day 9-10 on Euro will verify like a Day 9-10 blizzard

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

An early heat spell at Day 9-10 on Euro will verify like a Day 3 euro blizzard

 

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I hope you’re right for a change. Having the heat on in late April and now in May is ridiculous.

Drop the hammer at home and tell them to wear an extra layer. No reason should be using heat when they can gown up. In other words. MAN UP!

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drop the hammer at home and tell them to wear an extra layer. No reason should be using heat when they can gown up. In other words. MAN UP!

I imagine that going about as well in your house as when you tell the family that A/C isn’t needed and they should man up and enjoy the dews.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I imagine that going about as well in your house as when you tell the family that A/C isn’t needed and they should man up and enjoy the dews.

Dews are enjoyed outside … that’s where people want and like them. AC doesn’t cost $6.00 a gallon. Man up 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

50/42, steady light rain.  

[kdxken]

On 5/1/2022 at 3:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Planted the garden veggies this afternoon.Various types of tomatoes and peppers. Will stake the tomatoes when they get a little taller. 

Stein says no.

FYI there's no benefit in putting your tomatoes in a week or two early. Tomatoes planted on May 10th aren't going to provide tomatoes any earlier than those planted on May 20th unless under cover. You may actually stunt them. https://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=23969

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Stein says no.

FYI there's no benefit in putting your tomatoes in a week or two early. Tomatoes planted on May 10th aren't going to provide tomatoes any earlier than those planted on May 20th unless under cover. You may actually stunt them. https://ucanr.edu/blogs/blogcore/postdetail.cfm?postnum=23969

Been doing lawn and garden stuff many , many years. We’ll see. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The BN stuff is done. But…

Below normal is nice from mid May through summer. Saying “spring is here” on May 10th will get you punched in the face.

We got no help when we needed it.
 

 

it's funny but you know ...I've been thinking about this off and on this last week.  How we seem to be in an all or nothing climate, wrt to specifically the cold side behavior.

We either have a direct feed of harshness, or it's rest state above normal.   I'm convinced of this behavior. 

We don't seem to statically maintain cold air.  Even in the depths of winter that seems harder to do then 30 years ago.  I most definitely attribute this to CC....   I began having email exchanges with Mets and climo folks outside the forum 10 years ago, regarding how our "flip direction" in marginality seems to favor going liquid as opposed to parachutes ... just as an inclusion. 

But wrt to temperatures, soon as this pattern finally yields... absolutely the yaw back in the other direction could take some by surprise.  

Separate muse: I think if we are ever going to have a historic heat event here that is on par with the Pac NW, or France or the Urals ... Siberia etc, over the NE states, it would tend to happen prior to full green-up N of the Mason Dixie.  That way, we are not holding the kinetic temp down for storage into theta-e, so that we can lock up > normal for nighttime lows.  Being that we are exiting the continent, our atmosphere is an miasma of bio and industrial farts, weighting too much to allow temps to do the 108's. 

[weathafella]

I had to be up early today for a meeting at the convention center.  It was mild and pleasant in the morning but cold and rainy now

[HIPPYVALLEY]

45/43 RA.  .25” so far tonight.
Already higher than my <.10” forecast. 
 

[kdxken]

36 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

45/43 RA.  .25” so far tonight.
Already higher than my <.10” forecast. 
 

Damage In Tolland

• 
• Members
• 
• • 94.6k
• Location:Tolland, CT

Posted 7 hours ago

Stein beat the rain back easily with his stick . Most folks haven’t measured or seen any . I bet he wins Wednesday too

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Drop the hammer at home and tell them to wear an extra layer. No reason should be using heat when they can gown up. In other words. MAN UP!

I don’t understand. I’m supposed to tell the wife and kids to put on their winter gear indoors, in May, as a showcase of their ‘manhood’ ?

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t understand. I’m supposed to tell the wife and kids to put on their winter gear indoors, in May, as a showcase of their ‘manhood’ ?

 

 

I lit the woodstove tonight so clearly I’ve been emasculated by the weather.

[Torch Tiger]

humidifiers ftw.  We keep it super dewy year-round. Plus honestly 65/60 feels warmer in the winter than 70 with bone dry humidity.  Not sure why people crank heat when you can dew it up and/or add a layer

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

.63 of Stein here. Nice drink. 

[512high]

.35" since last night, 44f

[Damage In Tolland]

.20 as he digs in 

[CoastalWx]

About .35 here.

[kdxken]

.34 at the woodyard.

[kdxken]

Certainly not a marked improvement over April. Looks like we get another beauty on Thursday and the rest is blah.

[CoastalWx]

If we get sun, then areas like BDL could be low 60s Saturday. Tough call. 

[dendrite]

Had the pellet stove on in the living room last night. A toasty 80F in there and 75F in the bedrooms when I woke up...even with a low setting. Sometimes you have to make your own torch.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we get sun, then areas like BDL could be low 60s Saturday. Tough call. 

Euro RH sigmas, 700, 500 ... have RH wall cutting NW-SE right thru SNE but advancing enough that we've gone under the edge by then.  Plus, nothing screams a nice pleasant mild May day like  4 isobars running parallel along an axis from Cape Cod to Rut VT.  Turn on the easterly soothing balm and walks away, why don't you... weee.

That day's a piece of shit.

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Had the pellet stove on in the living room last night. A toasty 80F in there and 75F in the bedrooms when I woke up...even with a low setting. Sometimes you have to make your own torch.

I would sweat to death. My room is low 64 with a fan blowing on me lol.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I would sweat to death. My room is low 64 with a fan blowing on me lol.

Yeah I was sweating. lol

I left the house with no jacket today. I'm still trying to cool my core down.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would sweat to death. My room is low 64 with a fan blowing on me lol.

Since April 1st, I've left the thermo off and have an air purifier running, which acts like a fan. I definitely need low 60's, otherwise it's shit sleep

[Typhoon Tip]

Weekend looks shit to me.  I mean, we could petty argue/bargain it's better because we are not under 538 dm thickness, rather 552 - so some form of morality victory there... But, with that cutting-off low over top a slow death coastal, just being enough to long shore a fetch from S of NS clear to Buffalo, there's not much about that synopsis that looks realistically nice.

That's just the way the 00z run look to me.  I do think we are still in the process of modulating them two days in the guidance.  What ultimately gets severed in terms of momentum, mid and aloft of that... could have an effect on the patterning later next week during that extended warm-up. 

Re that/ extended ideas:  

the 00z GGEM backed away.   However, the GEPS suggests its engineering bs.  That ens mean is going to be smoother at this range, either way, but it still makes the operational version noisy looking. Either way, milder to warm d7-10.  

The Euro, on the other hand, maintained ...arguably adding ridge growth.  The ens mean (EPS) was slightly more robust as well.  Both bring significant, though non-historic, non-hydrostatic height anomaly slow over arching a vestigial weakness over the SE/FL headed for the Gulf...which by the way, ... and EPS/oper. evolution might be early tropical interest with that region as it ends up festering down there D10-12.

The GFS is still dumping too much mechanical power into that feature, but not as much so as previous runs. That will probably have to slowly back off the throttle. It's fighting its bias to do so.  The GEFs demonstrate a weaker vibe with that.. Either way, particularly the 06z,  these guidance were opting for more ridge prominence over a closed gale -

So, reasonable continuity/emergence, toward the teleconnector signal, for warm mid month continues overall.  Very early guess, doesn't look historic ... As much as all this has > 50% in the "proof of concept" perspective, the models will tend to also magnify versions that come over the outer edge of the guidance horizon, if/when those signals are emerging within a telecon backed regime.   So -PNA/ +(AO/NAO), is likely going to show up on D9 oper models in exaggerated form.  Sometimes that holds... but most of the time you end up with a tamer ordeal.  We'll see.