May 2022 Thread

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Scent of summer in the air this morning, unmistakable.    Sort of hinted yesterday, it piques the nostalgia with rich aroma.  

 

I noticed it as well this morning. A moist, earthy smell to the air. The first I've noticed of the year up here.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting ... hard to tell on satellite what's really going on down there. 

Clearing N of CT/RI, there is just fog pooling miasma that's melting away as I type. That's an no brainer for giving way to sear.

But down there, there is a denser band that has S to N moving 'ripples' that give an allusion to a mid level ceiling ... perhaps helping to cap the region - imagining it collocates over top, in other words.   I dunno tho.  I think you will be probably be the last to clear - not sure how long. 

Im noticing some clearing moving in south of Long Island as well, we hope, it's miserable right now.

[dendrite]

00z GFS started the weekend off in the 90s as well. So it's been flirting with big heat on some runs. Like John said, usually we find a way to mute it this time of year, but this current warmup is a nice launching pad for foliage and soil temps.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

He loves it though, ha.  I feel like there’s a bit of a lack of awareness on how warm season rainfall works too.  The guy is looking for average like 1.25” water per week steady (which doesn’t really happen).

Its more like 3 weeks of very little then some convective cluster drops 3-4” of rainfall and bam, you’re at 4.10” for a month, lol.

Or on a larger scale, there’s 3 dry summers followed by one like last summer where it rains 30”.  That’s the equivalent of a convective burst dropping a bunch of rain in a large time set amid drier climo.

Its not going to rain 0.20” of gentle soaking each day all summer like he seems to want.

If I had a goatee stroking muah hahaha weather machine and could like ... aim it?

I would tease up an experiment where I programmed  38.47" inches of stalled 80 dbz thunderstorm rains ... Houston tropical storm style, right over his house and yard, just for the shear experimental muse of testing whether the frequency of those desiccation dystopian drought tweets might actually go down...

That would be a neat experiment.  And also, possibly even a working solution toward a reality where we never read one of those again!

[amarshall]

Morning commute duxbury to Cape Cod .  1/4 mile vis.  Hoping to see 65 degrees today and maybe the sun for 10 minutes. 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Still overcast, but noticeably more mild. 

It's all relative here though. By mild I mean upper 50's. 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I have no idea how the big reservoirs are doing.   I would guess that the Quabbin is doing fine.

DIT got so much rain last year, it could probably not rain a drop this summer and he’s be at average over the past two summers.

I think sometimes in summer convective rainfall folks look at “average” too much on a too small a time scale.  Summer rain comes in short heavy bursts.  Get a tropical feed and pick up 6 weeks of rain in 6 hours.

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah..just wrote a tl;dr to Brain about the GFS next weekend.   It may be right in principle, purely based on our sore-butt climate.  Lol.  But the way it is going about doing that is not likely correct, imho.   It really appears to generate heat lows and then 'thinks' its own creation is a cold front after the fact.  That would all by definition be an artifact - perhaps less true, but we'll see.

The potential is certainly there, especially if we see such a trough dig into the West like what is being advertised. But even if the signal gets muted a little bit we'd still be looking at some big heat given how anomalous the look is now

[weatherwiz]

The continued signal though for big heat in the South is pretty crazy...looks like another stretch of record heat across many areas. Could see high's 105-110 across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. 

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The challenge for next weekend is you have that vortex across eastern Canada and southern tip of Greenland with multiple pieces of energy rounding this. Depending on strength and proximity, this could keep much of our region in a northwesterly flow and halt the northward progression of the warm front. Maybe a scenario where NYC is 95-98 while we are in the 70's. 

Mm hm ... sound analysis.  And by extension ... that NW flow relaxing, then passes us through a structural interlude that risks BDs. 

It's like there are staged hurdles that need overcoming, in this order:

NW --> BD --> laboring warm front from almost imperceptible surface CAD lag --> no apparent reason for warm frontal drag remains, yet it doesn't go through mystery -->  finally... we're in the hot air ... for 10 minutes before a the main CF.

Meanwhile everyine west of ALB got at least hot regardless of any of those scenarios ...

( yes this is dripping with snark )

[Cold Miser]

26 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Morning commute duxbury to Cape Cod .  1/4 mile vis.  Hoping to see 65 degrees today and maybe the sun for 10 minutes. 

 

...Nice. Been a while.

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

dense fog down here, but it burned off pretty quick.

that fukkin guy is obsessed. it's really strange

One trick pony indeed. 

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The continued signal though for big heat in the South is pretty crazy...looks like another stretch of record heat across many areas. Could see high's 105-110 across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. 

Yeah...and in all seriousness, we do have to keep an eye on it as heat synoptic enthusiasts. For that, and perhaps risk assessing.  Through the end of the month.  (Mem Day weekend will have pingers and 40 F rain whether it is 1,000 F book ending it, come hell or high water)

The PNA is inconsistently negative, and that is precarious for an eventual Sonoran or SW heat release into the downstream flow. 

This is interesting to me ... both the GGEM and Euro oper's show a 570 non hydrostatic closed anticyclonic node up there over Alaska. That's -EPO incarnate.   Noormally by now, that should not mean much?  The seasonal R-wave structures break down toward summer entropy ..etc.  But there is an insidiously hidden faster than normal velocity of geostrophic wind over the total planetary scaled integral. It's forcing those synoptic super-structures to lag perhaps longer than normal. So a -EPO up there, crashing heights down the Great Basin couplet, sends heights up in the OV...viola! that drags the SW heat out and there we go.    The GGEM flat out does that D8-10 ( 00z oper.).. It's ensemble mean is less though.  But the oper run isn't impossible - it's showing what a slightly more amplified variant is capable of.  

That could still do all that despite the modestly -PNA/ +AO/NAO.

 

 

[kdxken]

43 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I have no idea how the big reservoirs are doing.   I would guess that the Quabbin is doing fine.

May 1, 2022

 

RESERVOIR LEVELS: The Quabbin Reservoir, the largest water supply source for 47 communities in the Metro Boston area, is currently at 100.1% of its 412 billion-gallon maximum capacity. The 65 billion-gallon Wachusett Reservoir is 88.8% full.

 

Detailed Data and Archives

[wxeyeNH]

On 5/11/2022 at 5:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I knew it was coming ... I didn't wanna mention it ahead of his announcing - who would?   but yeah, memories galore.   Great forecaster.  Above all else, a great human being.   Deserves all the credit and them some, as well as happiness and success in any new found directives, or in freedom. 

I agree John.  I know you worked with him.  I never did that but went down to Ch 7 numerous times and even had dinner with him once.  Great guy!  I'm old school.  Don Kent was my idol but then the next generation of great mets like Harv and Barry came along.  The greats are leaving.  I left the Boston metro 20 years ago and don't bother watching TV much anymore but the talent level seems worse.  

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...and in all seriousness, we do have to keep an eye on it a heat synoptic enthusiasts. For that, and perhaps risk assessing.  Through the end of the month.  (Mem Day weekend have pingers and 40 F rain will happen if it 1,000 F book ending it, come hell or high water)

The PNA is inconsistently negative, and that is precarious for an eventual Sonoran or SW heat release into the downstream flow. 

This is interesting to me ... both the GGEM and Euro oper's show a 570 non hydrostatic closed anticyclonic node up there over Alaska. That -EPO incarnate.   Noormally by now, that should not mean much?  The seasonal R-wave structures break down toward summer entropy ..etc.  But there is an insidiously hidden faster than normal velocity of geostrophic wind over the total planetary scaled integral. It's forcing those synoptic super-structures to lag perhaps longer than normal. So a -EPO up there, crashing heights down the Great Basin couplet, sends heights up in the OV...viola! that drags the SW heat out and there we go.    The GGEM flat out does that D8-10 ( 00z oper.).. It's ensemble mean is less though.  But the oper run isn't impossible - it's showing what a slightly more amplified variant is capable of.  

That could still do all that despite the modestly -PNA/ +AO/NAO.

 

 

I don't know if there would be meteorological data to back this up (it could certainly be proven/disproven easily but can't do it right now) but I wonder if we see our higher end heat events when the source region is more southern Plains as opposed to desert Southwest. I only wonder this b/c you would think based on trajectory it would be much easier to eject in here from the southern Plains as opposed to from the Southwest for a number of reasons and my guess is one reason would be you have a shorter distance to cross so less time for the airmass to be compromised? 

[wxeyeNH]

Super fast leaf out up here.   The tree canopy looked like November 7 days ago.  Now everything is leafing out.  Here are 2 pictures from my Cam.  Monday AM and Friday AM

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Super fast leaf out up here.   The tree canopy looked like November 7 days ago.  Now everything is leafing out.  Here are 2 pictures from my Cam.  Monday AM and Friday AM

The pond is going down quickly. 

[dendrite]

Already 76°. The bump up in dews feel nice. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Already 76°. The bump up in dews feel nice. 

Yessah! Everyone so much happier and moving quicker now as deep dews take over 

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know if there would be meteorological data to back this up (it could certainly be proven/disproven easily but can't do it right now) but I wonder if we see our higher end heat events when the source region is more southern Plains as opposed to desert Southwest. I only wonder this b/c you would think based on trajectory it would be much easier to eject in here from the southern Plains as opposed to from the Southwest for a number of reasons and my guess is one reason would be you have a shorter distance to cross so less time for the airmass to be compromised? 

Yup! It's hard to do a more discrete reanalytic study of it.

Heat waves were always either not recognized, or disrespected perhaps ... prior to Climate Change.  But now? Their lead synoptic signals..et al, are finally getting recognition.  

I've opined this for years... but in short, the big five were always, "Tornadoes, Hurricane, Floods, Droughts, and Blizzards" (no particular order) Years ago... after some cold waves in the late 1980s were inspiringly gelid, and then the 1995 midwest heat dome nothwitstanding... I began to wonder why Heat(Cold) Waves were not included/expanded into that list.  I mean hell...they actually incur significant commerce losses, not just health and safety - I mean the latter should have been enough, right? LOL. 

As to the heat source stuff... ah, just per my experience, I don't think so, anecdotally.

I think back to the sweltering big dawg heat events of lore here, there's a kind of 'over-top' aspect to them.  It's when the SW "volcano" belches a fire-ball into the flow. It smears out as it moves arcing over the top of a -PNAP coupled positive anomaly ...usually situated near Dayton OH... It's actually kinetically charged air that is by convention not saddled with surpluse theta-e.. That mixture of bio- continental ozone actually gets the HI up more so than the temperatures.  So the "clean heat" descends on a NW or WNW trajectory, down sloping no less.  We really have not seen that in recent years.  The closest I saw to us getting Pac NW event here, was 2017 ... July 4 weekend. But it fell short because despite the historic non-hydrostatic heights ....towering to 606 dm!!!, there was no SW ejection into that pattern formulation.  So we home grew/cooked our way to 96's over 75's within that Venetian height dome that actually left some on the table.  

The SW version that you describe - I would be more willing to guess is prevalent during sustaining warm seasonal biases, on whole.. Like you you know, the maintenance 91/75 crap, that only goes back to 87/64 before creeping back up, because there's a semi perm SE ridge tendency. That was like some of those 1980s and 1990s summers.   1995 had the big midwest/Lakes heat bomb, and that one certainly does match your notion of NW flow 'shearing' off the really bread oven stuff from getting in here... But that's a unique scenario...  

"Hot Saturday" in 1975 was kinetically charged plume that came down from 'over-top'.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Super fast leaf out up here.   The tree canopy looked like November 7 days ago.  Now everything is leafing out.  Here are 2 pictures from my Cam.  Monday AM and Friday AM

Yup, same here!

All major species are flowering and leafing and not just figuratively, last week at this time only half were and many were nuclear still.  First week of May no less..

There's been mixed opinion on whether this is was 'late' or not.  Not here to argue. It may not have been.  But I also suggest that we may have just come through 15 years where we've gotten used to earlier greening?  so maybe this was more '1,000 year normal' so to speak.  

I don't know. But I personally know that several of the giant sugar Maples around my neighborhood were two weeks later than last year.  It  may be local noise too -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean don't hold a pistol to our heads - LOL... Like we're saying, 'the way it looks at this moment'.

 

Lol yea, one person will, but it doesn’t have the sustained summeh look yet. Maybe after MDW?

[Cold Miser]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yessah! Everyone so much happier and moving quicker now as deep dews take over 

no

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yessah! Everyone so much happier and moving quicker now as deep dews take over 

It’s upper 50s dews vs the desert we had all week. lol

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol yea, one person will, but it doesn’t have the sustained summeh look yet. Maybe after MDW?

Yeeeah... barring things changing.

In simple, looks like 3 or 4 days of relative heat here in the near term...   3 days of seasonal cool back ( probably more beautiful than annoying), followed by perhaps a repeat of 3 or 4 days -->  Mem Day trace of snow at Tolland CT ... -->  then we'll see if there a bigger heat signal into June.

subject to change of course -

[Brian5671]

Sun starting to break through here.  65

[HoarfrostHubb]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup, same here!

All major species are flowering and leafing and not just figuratively, last week at this time only half were and many were nuclear still.  First week of May no less..

There's been mixed opinion on whether this is was 'late' or not.  Not here to argue. It may not have been.  But I also suggest that we may have just come through 15 years where we've gotten used to earlier greening?  so maybe this was more '1,000 year normal' so to speak.  

I don't know. But I personally know that several of the giant sugar Maples around my neighborhood were two weeks later than last year.  It  may be local noise too -

Yeah. IMBY it was like 0-60 in 1 day...  not sure if it was late or not... maybe just a little

[kdxken]

Clouds keeping the temp around 70. Not ideal for work but I'll take it.

[Typhoon Tip]

81 here

6 ahead of yesterday ...