May 2022 Thread

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

53° and clear with some light fog. Nice launching pad for today. 

Someplace up north gets a 90?

[kdxken]

The horror.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

[SouthCoastMA]

the Stein is already in mid-season form 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

53° and clear with some light fog. Nice launching pad for today. 

BTV southerly flow season has started.

Hung around 70F all night at BTV (68F min) on steady channeling south winds.

Should get 90F pretty easily IMO.

“This is especially true in the Champlain Valley where overnight southerly winds have kept temperatures from dropping much so here we`ll be starting significantly warmer than yesterday. That said, looking for several high temp records to fall again today with BTV possibly hitting 90 degrees, which if observed will be the 7th earliest in observed history.”

[CoastalWx]

Next weekend is a furnace on euro. 

[CoastalWx]

Pretty warm in the long range. It’s here.

[CoastalWx]

Of course the holiday weekend may cool off.   Figures.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty warm in the long range. It’s here.

WTTTE

[Damage In Tolland]

Summertime 

 

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next weekend is a furnace on euro. 

Pushing all-time May record highs right there. 29C at 925.

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, Saguaro said:

High ended up being 84 here in the Phoenix area today. IZG/Fryeburg hit 85. Not often that happens. Tomorrow onwards the heat is returning here, back to the 90s then 100-105 into next week.

 

When CAR tied its record high of 96 on May 22, 1977, it was reported as the highest temp in the US that day.  I don't know if that was actually the case, but if it was even close, "not often" would be a gross understatement.

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

53° and clear with some light fog. Nice launching pad for today. 

dense fog down here, but it burned off pretty quick.

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

the Stein is already in mid-season form 

that fukkin guy is obsessed. it's really strange

[Sey-Mour Snow]

13 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

79 degree pool without heating? That seems hard to believe 

Black liner, small pool 14x26.. pool only cooled off to 75 overnight.. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

The horror.

 

Scary stuff. We’re morphing into an arid climate akin to the desert southwest. It may never rain again. His new home awaits:

[Typhoon Tip]

Scent of summer in the air this morning, unmistakable.    Sort of hinted yesterday, it piques the nostalgia with rich aroma.  

Same as yesterday morning, a morning strata -fog has packed in.  Thinning from the edges, and brighter moments, will eventually open up to tall hot sun.

Tomorrow looks like the first uncomfortable day.  Quick surmise off the NAM grid, 90/60+ style. 

In fact ... deep summery bath all weekend.  Maybe some afternoon crispy TCU ?  On cue with elevating DPs and the modest CAPE. 

For summer enthusiasts, this is your time to celebrate -

[weatherwiz]

Hope remains alive

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Pushing all-time May record highs right there. 29C at 925.

No kidding?! 

I kept the evaluation coarse after I saw the 00z GFS.  That model - I am now pretty much convinced ... - is forcibly parameterized to concoct interference of warm ups.  lol.   This rendition, it calves the eastern end of the warm front on Friday and generates a pivot point tendency for anti-cyclonic pressure pattern, very subtle.  But then the next day, it creates a single close isobar over SNE - probably a 'thermal low' actually ... - but uses that as a trigger for a BD that doesn't actually have any assocatiated pressure rises up in Maine.   It's like, "oh ... well, we better truncate that," while the GGEM and Euro are breaking records. 

It's probably right though, in principle.  Heat's really fragile by nature.  It's always trying to get to space with a leaning force always on.  It's not like cold dense air, that needs real Newtonian first law mechanics to get it out of region (which we are uniquely qualified to demo around this geography ... ).  So the GFS is "confusing" thermal lows with BD tapestry, or, we just BD anyway?  right for the wrong reason is better than flat wrong in any dimension I guess.

[weatherwiz]

Some pretty big differences though between the GFS/Euro for next weekend. We could easily end up near/slightly below-average as we could well above-average with record daily heat possible. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Heavy mist, meh.. I wonder if southern CT breaks into the warm sun today or stays locked into 60s and mist.. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Heavy mist, meh.. I wonder if southern CT breaks into the warm sun today or stays locked into 60s and mist.. 

Typical bs when the dews climb.

[Typhoon Tip]

 The EPS and GEFs means look tepid for signficant heat next weekend -

Not sure the telecon derivatives would really suggest very hot either, ... just eyeballing the mass fields that are used for the calculating. 

It's a bouncing -PNA ( 0 to -.75 or so) with a modestly positive AO/NAO ... m'yeah it's warm.  It is D7-10 so it could start getting more robust.  This signal was in fact more robust two days ago ... I recall posting with Brian about it.  So given that history, ..yeah I guess.

It looks like we have a deep summer weekend for everyone but CT's south coast ( lol...j/k), then a whisky cold front along with its typical climo-failing convection threat that only manages to explode a pointless 20 page thread ...  scrubs out and we get a couple of days that could actually be really nice.  I mean breeze and upper 60s to around 70 style with ultra UV sun, mid week.  I dunno tho - cold tends to modulate warmer at this time of year so the that nadir next week may shallow some.  Then we oscillate back to something like this weekend ...   That's what it looks like to me right at this moment..  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 The EPS and GEFs means look tepid for signficant heat next weekend -

Not sure the telecon derivatives would really suggest very hot either, ... just eyeballing the mass fields that are used for the calculating. 

It's a bouncing -PNA ( 0 to -.75 or so) with a modestly positive AO/NAO ... m'yeah it's warm.  It is D7-10 so it could start getting more robust.  This signal was in fact more robust two days ago ... I recall posting with Brian about it.  So given that history, ..yeah I guess.

It looks like we have a deep summer weekend for everyone but CT's south coast ( lol...j/k), then a whisky cold front and some typical climo-failing convection threats and fire off a pointless 20 page thread ...  scrubs out and we get a couple of days that could actually be really nice.  I mean breeze and upper 60s to around 70 style with ultra UV sun.  I dunno tho - cold tends to modulate warmer at this time of year so the that nadir next week may shallow some.  Then we oscillate back to something like this weekend ...   That's what it looks like to me right at this moment..  

yea, euro op tossed. Next week looks fantastic then there will be a dewier pulse but it’s not a sustained summeh look with another low dew stretch around MDW.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

dense fog down here, but it burned off pretty quick.

that fukkin guy is obsessed. it's really strange

He is an avid gardner... 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

yea, euro op tossed. Next week looks fantastic then there will be a dewier pulse but it’s not a sustained summeh look with another low dew stretch around MDW.

I mean don't hold a pistol to our heads - LOL... Like we're saying, 'the way it looks at this moment'.

 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

He is an avid gardner... 

He loves it though, ha.  I feel like there’s a bit of a lack of awareness on how warm season rainfall works too.  The guy is looking for average like 1.25” water per week steady (which doesn’t really happen).

Its more like 3 weeks of very little then some convective cluster drops 3-4” of rainfall and bam, you’re at 4.10” for a month, lol.

Or on a larger scale, there’s 3 dry summers followed by one like last summer where it rains 30”.  That’s the equivalent of a convective burst dropping a bunch of rain in a large time set amid drier climo.

Its not going to rain 0.20” of gentle soaking each day all summer like he seems to want.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Heavy mist, meh.. I wonder if southern CT breaks into the warm sun today or stays locked into 60s and mist.. 

It's interesting ... hard to tell on satellite what's really going on down there. 

Clearly N of CT/RI, there is just fog pooling miasma that's melting away as I type. That's a no brainer for giving way to sear.

But down there, there is a denser band that has S to N moving 'ripples' that give an allusion to a mid level ceiling ... perhaps helping to cap the region - imagining it collocates over top, in other words.   I dunno tho.  I think you will be probably be the last to clear - not sure how long. 

[weatherwiz]

The challenge for next weekend is you have that vortex across eastern Canada and southern tip of Greenland with multiple pieces of energy rounding this. Depending on strength and proximity, this could keep much of our region in a northwesterly flow and halt the northward progression of the warm front. Maybe a scenario where NYC is 95-98 while we are in the 70's. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

He loves it though, ha.  I feel like there’s a bit of a lack of awareness on how warm season rainfall works too.  The guy is looking for average like 1.25” water per week steady (which doesn’t really happen).

Its more like 3 weeks of very little then some convective cluster drops 3-4” of rainfall and bam, you’re at 4.10” for a month, lol.

Or on a larger scale, there’s 3 dry summers followed by one like last summer where it rains 30”.  That’s the equivalent of a convective burst dropping a bunch of rain in a large time set amid drier climo.

Its not going to rain 0.20” of gentle soaking each day all summer like he seems to want.

I have no idea how the big reservoirs are doing.   I would guess that the Quabbin is doing fine.

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Some pretty big differences though between the GFS/Euro for next weekend. We could easily end up near/slightly below-average as we could well above-average with record daily heat possible. 

Yeah..just wrote a tl;dr to Brain about the GFS next weekend.   It may be right in principle, purely based on our sore-butt climate.  Lol.  But the way it is going about doing that is not likely correct, imho.   It really appears to generate heat lows and then 'thinks' its own creation is a cold front after the fact.  That would all by definition be an artifact - perhaps less true, but we'll see.