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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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6 hours ago, tamarack said:

You need to think of midsummer when it's 96/76 on the Boston Common and 72 (both air and water) at your place, with a nice sea breeze.  :D

Had 73/30 yesterday.  This morning's low of 37 ends a six-day run of sub-freezing minima.
Forecast contrast not often seen:  Maine foothills, sunny and 85.  Inland SNJ, sunny and 69.  Only in late spring NNE.

IZG got up to 85, and Montreal hit 90. It's currently 80 here around 2pm so those may eclipse the Phoenix area today.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I remember the local NNJ reservoirs being down to under 30% capacity at the worst point.   My father decided we needed to dig a well-many people were dong that.   By the time we reached ground water the drought had broken....lol.

IIRC, the reservoirs supplying NYC were under 20% and aurhorities were talking weeks remaining, not months.
Driest 5 years in NYC:
1963   34.29"   (Only a 4.25" storm in November, then that month's biggest RA event on record, prevented a new #1 at that time.)
1935   33.84"
1910   33.72"
1964   32.99"
1965   26.10"   (How many SDs below 1964?  Below average?)
Thru August, '65 had recorded 19.05" and '66 had 19.80", looking like a new #2 and maybe catching the year before.  1966 set new Central Park records for both the driest and hottest met summer, so that year might've created more stress on water supply than 1965.  (2010 took away the heat record.)

One oddity for the 1960s drought is that it ended in a single day, though no one knew it at the time.  The drought area had a nice RA event on 9/13-14 - 2.18" for NYC, but 63-65 had also featured 2" storms.  On 9/21/66, NYC had 5.54", my NNJ home a similar amount and the overall region had a good drenching.  From then on, precip ran average to AN for years and the reservoirs were refilled.

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2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

86 up there. Wow. Other worldly down here. 

I think the bare trees contribute to some really fast heating, AZ desert style. Although today suddenly there is some green showing! Should be fully leafed out within a couple of days at this rate. 

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1 hour ago, alex said:

I think the bare trees contribute to some really fast heating, AZ desert style. Although today suddenly there is some green showing! Should be fully leafed out within a couple of days at this rate. 

Yeah 1500ft at like SLK, across VT to your area in NNH all sporting 85-87F type temps today.

The lack of green certainly plays a roll in these early dry heaters up north.  It’s starting to come on fast though.

Looks like 88-90F below 1,000ft too.

Watching the snow melt on these warm evenings.  Stick season hillsides getting blasted by mid/upper 80s.

Untitled.thumb.jpg.495254f2560d35f705cf3e90394a1518.jpg

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah 1500ft at like SLK, across VT to your area in NNH all sporting 85-87F type temps today.

The lack of green certainly plays a roll in these early dry heaters up north.  It’s starting to come on fast though.

Looks like 88-90F below 1,000ft too.

I’d much prefer what we had today with 80 and dews vs 88 and desert 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d much prefer what we had today with 80 and dews vs 88 and desert 

Yeah you don't care about temps much at all... only dews.  You'd take 72/72 soup over what you had today.  A reason to run the A/C... a dry heat doesn't get the window units cranking in Tolland.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Again how did we arrive at that number?

I think the MCD for the watch explained it - here... so I guess that's where the number came from -  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0739.html

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0739
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota...far southwest
   Minnesota...and northwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208...

   Valid 122149Z - 122230Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO "MONTANA" INSTEAD OF "MINNESOTA"

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 208
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A very intense squall line will bring likely hurricane
   force winds across portions of southeast South Dakota into southwest
   Minnesota this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A well developed squall line has developed across
   Nebraska and has already produced multiple wind gusts in the 70 to
   90 mph range over the past 1 to 2 hours. This line is moving over 60
   knots and is moving into an increasingly favorable environment for
   severe wind gusts with MLCAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg, DCAPE of 1400
   J/kg, and effective shear around 50 knots.

   All signs point toward a swath of high end wind damage across
   southeast South Dakota and possibly into southwest Minnesota.
   Widespread velocities of 90 to 100 knots are being sampled around
   4000 feet across Yankton and Bon Homme counties as of 4:30 PM. This
   is the same region where several consecutive runs of the WoFS have
   shown a swath with ensemble maximum surface winds of 90 to 100
   knots. Therefore, widespread 75+ mph winds are likely with some wind
   gusts approaching 100 mph possible.

   ..Bentley.. 05/12/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...
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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m always curious on that myself…especially with these higher magnitude numbers. I’d also be really curious to know how many times per event you see a hail size/wind gust near what’s projected

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
616 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Pope County in west central Minnesota...
  Chippewa County in west central Minnesota...
  Stevens County in west central Minnesota...
  Swift County in west central Minnesota...
  Northwestern Kandiyohi County in central Minnesota...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 615 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Milbank to 6 miles southwest of Appleton to
  near Hanley Falls, moving northeast at 85 mph.

  THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR APPLETON AND BENSON.

  HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 608 PM CDT, Madison airport reported
           a gust of 94 mph.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to
           homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and
           power outages.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Granite Falls and Appleton around 620 PM CDT.
  Maynard and Lake Oliver around 625 PM CDT.
  Clara City around 630 PM CDT.
  Hancock and Raymond around 635 PM CDT.
  Kerkhoven, Chokio and Cyrus around 640 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 9625 4576 9514 4533 9512 4489 9525
      4489 9548 4477 9549 4477 9551 4480 9551
      4491 9568 4491 9572 4493 9573 4495 9580
      4516 9604 4518 9610 4541 9612 4542 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 213DEG 74KT 4517 9662 4514 9613 4471 9566

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH
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4 minutes ago, yoda said:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
616 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Pope County in west central Minnesota...
  Chippewa County in west central Minnesota...
  Stevens County in west central Minnesota...
  Swift County in west central Minnesota...
  Northwestern Kandiyohi County in central Minnesota...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 615 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Milbank to 6 miles southwest of Appleton to
  near Hanley Falls, moving northeast at 85 mph.

  THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR APPLETON AND BENSON.

  HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 608 PM CDT, Madison airport reported
           a gust of 94 mph.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to
           homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and
           power outages.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Granite Falls and Appleton around 620 PM CDT.
  Maynard and Lake Oliver around 625 PM CDT.
  Clara City around 630 PM CDT.
  Hancock and Raymond around 635 PM CDT.
  Kerkhoven, Chokio and Cyrus around 640 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central and
west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 9625 4576 9514 4533 9512 4489 9525
      4489 9548 4477 9549 4477 9551 4480 9551
      4491 9568 4491 9572 4493 9573 4495 9580
      4516 9604 4518 9610 4541 9612 4542 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 213DEG 74KT 4517 9662 4514 9613 4471 9566

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH

Holy shit

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58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you don't care about temps much at all... only dews.  You'd take 72/72 soup over what you had today.  A reason to run the A/C... a dry heat doesn't get the window units cranking in Tolland.

Violently agree . Dry heat I will experience all next week while in Vegas. 100-105 all week 

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5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Now this is a severe thunderstorm watch. Hopefully we can muster up something similar in a few weeks

image.png.bdfb79ecdf1d8affd2899f5d5cb18e88.png

I don’t get that vibe about this year. 

When summer mode takes over and the perennial shift lifts out the polar jet I don’t get the feeling we’re oscillating this time. May end up dull with towering heights.

Maybe set the stage for cutting off a heat ulcer like ‘95  

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9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Disturbing on so many levels 

 

Sounds like -(S.A.D.D)

”Negative seasonal effective disorder” is a lesser known variant … probably because it affects a comparative minority, to the popular/known kind. 

… It’s just like it sounds. Summer/high sun causes problems for them, much in the same way that darkness and cold gets to the other.  

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