Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 I'm thinking if the wind direction can stay N more than E, in the "NE" aspect ... would machine guidance bust too cold by a few this afternoon. More N has the advantage of being less cold ocean modulated ... but also is d-slope trajectory. If the wind bends E biased tho, we'll cap lower. That's the thinking anyway - This pattern is 'over top' heat. Given just a little offshore tendency .. the 850s/925 support mid 70s under full unadulterated May sun and non oceanic interference. Later in the week, the moment the flow commits to offshore more fully we'll soar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Not a lot of moisture on the horizon. Looks great. Warm and dry, just how we drew up mid may growing up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Coastal SNE is surprisingly chipper given the latest guidance. The seabreeze front going to push well inland everyday through Friday looks like with strong surface HP hanging out over the GOM. 50's more likely than 70+. OOf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Coastal SNE is surprisingly chipper given the latest guidance. The seabreeze front going to push well inland everyday through Friday looks like with strong surface HP hanging out over the GOM. 50's more likely than 70+. OOf. They’ll be higher dews towards the weekend but summeh is nowhere in sight even if some continuously attempt to pimp it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Coastal SNE is surprisingly chipper given the latest guidance. The seabreeze front going to push well inland everyday through Friday looks like with strong surface HP hanging out over the GOM. 50's more likely than 70+. OOf. Yes in eastern areas it doesn't look warm at all this week. This warm-up is really being tempered big time.. 6z euro and gfs keeps ct in the 60s/70s all week compared to 80s/90s in earlier guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Coastal SNE is surprisingly chipper given the latest guidance. The seabreeze front going to push well inland everyday through Friday looks like with strong surface HP hanging out over the GOM. 50's more likely than 70+. OOf. I'll take 58° with less wind over this misery. The last month has been chinese water torture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes in eastern areas it doesn't look warm at all this week. This warm-up is really being tempered big time.. 6z euro and gfs keeps ct in the 60s/70s all week compared to 80s/90s in earlier guidance Looks like dung for the most part here. I’m sure it’ll be windy too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks great. Warm and dry, just how we drew up mid may growing up. Yup but you know the droughtboys will be throwing Stein signs left and right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 25 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Coastal SNE is surprisingly chipper given the latest guidance. The seabreeze front going to push well inland everyday through Friday looks like with strong surface HP hanging out over the GOM. 50's more likely than 70+. OOf. Wednesday could be a bit of a letdown. Looks better thurs, maybe clouds Friday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Already 62 here. May tickle near 70. 70’s tomorrow and Thursday - Sunday are summer. Cannot wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Coastal SNE is surprisingly chipper given the latest guidance. The seabreeze front going to push well inland everyday through Friday looks like with strong surface HP hanging out over the GOM. 50's more likely than 70+. OOf. I dunno about the 'chipper' part ... but I agree with the latter reasoning in general. The thing is, there's two separate mechanics in play, too. If the gradient lessens enough ...the seabreeze takes over and penetrates farther inland. If the gradient stays stronger and focuses ...it'll depend ( again ) whether that is more N or E in the NE manifold. Kind of confusing a little. I just posted about that a few moments ago, how it it really may depend on where the NNE vs the ENE axis ends up... It's almost like coastal frontal tendency...despite all other synoptic metrics not typically being involved for/when considering the presence of one. Interesting in that sense... Anyway, more NNE is a warm trajectory in this weirdly inverted synoptic setting... It's over top warmth as we know blah blah. But 850s to 925 mixing depth temperatures/adiabats already supporting those 70s you mention. Which taking place underneath full 100% solar max equiv radiation dump-in? If the wind stays N at FIT, we bust the MEX machine numbers by a few. Hell, it's 67 here in Ayer, mid way between FIT and ASH, ...already surpassing the the NAM's previous fixes for the high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Heh... I don't think keeping CT that cold is going to work out too well if the Euro and GFS are indicating that Those models are not likely correct if they are, unless we alter the synoptics. The MEX numbers - btw - are warm fwiw. But the former pretty clearly signal the gradient weakens ( first ...), then tends to go offshore ( 2nd), then definitely commits to doing so. Granted, taking 3 days to totally transition but by Thursday ... we're likely 80 in HFD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Yeah I don't see this huge cooldown inland. Along the coast though, probably porked for mild until end of week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh... I don't think keeping CT that cold is going to work out too well if the Euro and GFS are indicating that Those models are not likely correct if they are, unless we alter the synoptics. The MEX numbers - btw - are warm fwiw. But the former pretty clearly signal the gradient weakens ( first ...), then tends to go offshore ( 2nd), then definitely commits to doing so. Granted, taking 3 days to totally transition but by Thursday ... we're likely 80 in HFD. They aren’t . Not following how 80+ and humid for 3-4 days late week is not summer in the words of a poster earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Nah, I think we inch to 69 here and bust MOS already. The gradient is crucially, already weakened enough. I don't see a sea-breeze getting the 3-km's western extension by 18z, today. Not sure where that comes from tomorrow. Maybe I am missing - is there a cold pulse coming ?? By extension and form, that looks an over done sea-breeze intrusion. Not sure why tomorrow would be worse than today - but maybe... I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 I just checked the latest runs - I'm not seeing anything muting good warmth inland from Thursday on. Not sold on 60's or 70's here Thursday, but that's a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They aren’t . Not following how 80+ and humid for 3-4 days late week is not summer in the words of a poster earlier Kevin... seriously/curiously - why do you have to always ... like autopilot apply spin toward more. The problem is, when you act to agree, but then spin, that sorta inadvertently couches that person into your leaning aspect - I realize this is a public bus stop on the Internet and therefore decorum is escaping at best, at other times there are no "real" rules...but c'mon. Lol I'm just trying to justify a warmer appeal. I'm not surging into DPs this, and humidity that. That's your bag - In fact, I suspect it is dry warmth and bigger diurnal spreads for Tolland/CT until late Friday ...more likely Saturday, and then it depends how much theta-e advects in - though I agree the DPs'll elevate some before that fropa early next week. I suppose by convention of being the 'first exposure' to any DP it may feel more humid by then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Kevin... seriously/curiously - why do you have to always ... like autopilot apply spin toward more. The problem is, when you act to agree, but then spin, that sorta inadvertently couches that person into your leaning aspect - I realize this is a public bus stop on the Internet and therefore decorum is escaping at best, at other times there are no "real" rules...but c'mon. Lol I'm just trying to justify a warmer appeal. I'm not surging into DPs this, and humidity that. That's your bag - In fact, I suspect it is dry warmth and bigger diurnal spreads for Tolland/CT until late Friday ...more likely Saturday, and then it depends how much theta-e advects in - though I agree the DPs'll elevate some before that fropa early next week. I suppose by convention of being the 'first exposure' to any DP it may feel more humid by then. That’s exactly what I said. End of week weekend summer with dews. 80/68 is summer . No spin at all there Dre 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Not sure why some individuals are sssoooo anxious to begin running up large electric bills for AC use... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Not sure why some individuals are sssoooo anxious to begin running up large electric bills for AC use... Well up until Monday I was still using my heat, so I’m in no rush to use my AC but using my furnace in Mid May down here is a little rough lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Bust. Enjoy your 55 and misty in mid June 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Bust. Enjoy your 55 and misty in mid June that weather is reserved for xmas eve actually 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Not sure why some individuals are sssoooo anxious to begin running up large electric bills for AC use... I have never installed before June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 70.1F 1st 70s of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: 70.1F 1st 70s of the year. Near 70 here after yesterday's 66, and pure sun. Amazing run of sun for early May, will change for the weekend and spoil yet another total lunar eclipse - would be the 4th in a row clouded out here. If 4/8/24 is socked in, the frustration would boil over - first lifetime chance to view a total solar eclipse wrecked by the atmosphere, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Kevin... seriously/curiously - why do you have to always ... like autopilot apply spin toward more. It’s built into the KFS forecast model. Take sensible weather outcome X and add more spice to it in the form of a few more degrees, more dews, more inches of snow, higher wind speeds… get it exciting and interesting. If someone agrees with you, you haven’t added enough extra spin… boost it further. Looking forward to a warm stretch coming up. Been sunny for so long it feels like San Diego. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup but you know the droughtboys will be throwing Stein signs left and right. Prepping the virtual room with padded walls for them… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 71 here with a NE breeze. It is noticeably greener with more leaves here than everywhere else, especially the higher hill towns, that I traveled through on my way home from Maine yesterday. Leaf out is well underway here in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 79/34 for 20% RH. Love near 80F with dews near freezing. Back-to-back days of like 45 degree diurnal swings. This has to be the greatest stretch one could draw up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 57 minutes ago, dendrite said: 70.1F 1st 70s of the year. same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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