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May 2022 Thread


weatherwiz
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54 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Has a back door front ever been predicted that DIDN'T happen? It seems like the most inevitable thing in the universe when they’re forecasted

Once or twice in 10 years I've seen a BD on a three day map...correct in near terms and ultimately hold back to being stationary up in southern Maine.

Otherwise, no ...

There's a reason for that.  It's the lower level resolution of the models, and their limitations in understanding the boundary layer conditions - exactly - as the cold ocean, the mountains west, and the coastal plain ...all interact at the very bottom of the atmosphere. It's fuzzy in that region.  Adding to that, cold air by physical law, will always travel under warm air because of its higher specific gravity.  So, you put cold air in a fuzzy layer, the models are thus more apt NOT to see it properly... 

What that all means is ...it is far in a way more likely that a cold BD air mass will be missed, than seen - such if they are seen, the forcing for them must be obscene.  A little hyperbole, but just very large.   In other words, the uncertainty is always sloped in favor of actually getting them.

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As we draw it up.  Lush, green, Chamber of Commerce views and vibes on Memorial Day weekend.  Couldn’t be more stoked on the weather the past couple days.

Early warm season, when fresh green leaf-out finally reaches the upper elevations.  Late spring transitioning to early summer type vegetation.

That's Jay Peak and Big Jay in the center of the horizon.

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Going to be a really interesting day Wednesday west of here...really trying to figure out where to set up to chase. Really leaning on going where the backdoor may set up around the HV. The shear Wednesday will be pretty crazy...instability should be decent and llvl lapse rates looks solid...which is huge for wind potential 

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