klw Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 "Still analyzing incoming model data for the potential for storms today with several different camps out there, the HRRR being the most aggressive breaking the cap later this afternoon with more models seemingly jumping on board. Still difficult to discern when/where convection will pop, but if it does it will likely go severe rapidly. We will continue to monitor" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Somewhere in the Hartford area, Wiz is getting that tingly feeling N Michigan got nailed. Sometimes that portends events out here but I don’t think that situation is in play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah. I can still see some of the torch spots (BED, LWM, ASH) getting 90-92. Not sure I get that hot here today I was walking the dog and it felt kinda cool. Looks like we picked up a little rain as well There's no question this 2am to noon period of time was either: not handled well by the models. not interpreted well by those looking at the models. some combination of both. Most likely, it's that 3rd option there. Either way, that's going to make heat advisory an interesting test. No doubt, eating up the dawn to 10am or noon period is going to retard heating potential, but how much or little? It's hard maybe for one to get their mind around the idea, but the adiabats are very warm over top and probably there is a poorly analyzed warm front difused and muddling matters further. But like I just said, there's a western edge to this hell moving pretty quickly east per sat review this hour, which extapolates progressively. As it passes E, it is exposing the low level under those warm adiabats to high hot sun. That will thermally couple higher and higher, and the temp will like respond quite a bit. Also - that MCS that rolled out of Missouri over the last day, seemed to fall apart and lose identiy over PA yesterday, but no - that festering ulcer that mimics at TD zygote SE of the Cape came back to life overnight; it didn't help either. FIT, ASH, BED, ORH... all with N drift to the wind this morning. Couldn't of ruined ( at least the morning aspects...) any better without it being a category 5 back door bomb. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 66/60 Sky brightening a bit now but still some decent low level muck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's no question this 2am to noon period of time was either: not handled well by the models. not interpreted well by those looking at the models. some combination of both. Most likely, it's that 3rd option there. Either way, that's going to make heat advisory an interesting test. No doubt, eating up the dawn to 10am or noon period is going to retard heating potential, but how much or little? It's hard maybe for one to get their mind around the idea, but the adiabats are very warm over top and probably there is a poorly analyzed warm front difused and muddling matters further. But like I just said, there's a western edge to this hell moving pretty quickly east per sat review this hour, which extapolates progressively. As it passes E, it is exposing the low level under those warm adiabats to high hot sun. That will thermally couple higher and higher, and the temp will like respond quite a bit. Also - that MCS that rolled out of Missouri over the last day, seemed to fall apart and lose identiy over PA yesterday, but no - that festering ulcer that mimics at TD zygote SE of the Cape came back to life overnight; it didn't help either. FIT, ASH, BED, ORH... all with N drift to the wind this morning - that's backed poorly assessed damage to a forecast incarnate. Couldn't of ruined ( at least the morning aspects...) any better without it being a category 5 back door bomb. lol No doubt, eating up the dawn to 10am or noon period is going to retard heating potential, but how much or little? Unfortunately I don't think it's going to hinder the heat that much. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 We never really got the warmup here yesterday. Earlier in the week it was progged for upper 70s and I ended up with a high of 69° and it quickly fell into the 50s toward sunset. So we still had the taint of that onshore flow airmass over us to start the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 58. So much for the torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said: 58. So much for the torch. It’s coming. I’m going to take advantage and plant my last 2 pawpaw trees while it’s cool and moist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: It’s coming. I’m going to take advantage and plant my last 2 pawpaw trees while it’s cool and moist. Just water clinging to everything here. When it comes it will be steamy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: We never really got the warmup here yesterday. Earlier in the week it was progged for upper 70s and I ended up with a high of 69° and it quickly fell into the 50s toward sunset. So we still had the taint of that onshore flow airmass over us to start the night. It's a clad point to make, Brain. Another way to say ... the writing was on the wall by noon yesterday, when it became really obvious the day was - aslo? - busting cold. This belay today, really got its start 24 hours ago when we get right down to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 73/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Just water clinging to everything here. When it comes it will be steamy. Suns out here and the dews here are spectacular. I think everyone is in for a special treat soon when all of New England is under full sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Big heat potential probably ruined today while also wasting an EML overhead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 4 hours ago, kdxken said: Well that's something. Might be heading up after all....short visit but I haven't been up there in a while. I'm sure chores await. 67* at 11:00 with sun making hints of breaking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Big heat potential probably ruined today while also wasting an EML overhead. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Quite the heat wave, hasn't been above 60 since Wednesday. The 0.02" of dz overnight was just enough to make everything wet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Sun out we sweat. LFG! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sun out we sweat. LFG! LFN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Highest tor probabilities in the entire nation are in Maine today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, kdxken said: LFN what does this mean? what f is LFG - you guys and all these abbreviations jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Sun's out--up to 69*. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what does this mean? what f is LFG - you guys and all these abbreviations jesus LFG got used a bunch towards the end of TB12’s Patriot career. Let’s Effen Go!!! was what he would yell coming into the field. Bald men in CT use it to cheer on high dews 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 76/68 here. Nice on the screen porch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 From Noyes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what does this mean? what f is LFG - you guys and all these abbreviations jesus LFG=Let’s Fargin Go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Highest tor probabilities in the entire nation are in Maine today it seems like the increasingly automated reliance - I'm gaslighting a little here, admittedly ... - throughout the field ( and I've seen this in other areas of society too - ) is causing a dumb-down effect. Questionable competency ...almost carelessness may be more apropos, is suggested now and again. Of course two things I have personally noticed about my age group and myself including... One, we also get smarter as we age, just existentially forced - I guess those of the 20 to 40 year old range don't have the advantage. But two, we lose patience and think everyone's an asshole. Now... trying to parse out reality from personal bias has it's own challenges LOL. But no - there's something else to this observation that probably has truth to it. We see more silliness in operating the world. In weather-related matters, resulting in things like today... It's not "all the time" no. But more so than during hey day era of great disco analytics, the 1990s through early 2000s. There's other socio-babble reasons too. Like .. point and click forecasts - I mean hire more staff and populate the f'ers with eye ball material please. Jesus ... that's budget cuts from whatever macro eco bs that's not related to dumbing down - or maybe it is, indirectly. Like, we are multi generational, convenience addled by the Industrial bubble society button pushers now... Inside of that bubble, things get taken for granted, eventually more and more so - it's intuitively inevitable. And decisions get made that are dumb. Like, we can take the salaries out of entry level operations jobs... yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Looks like Montreal is THE place for severe per that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 76/68 here. Nice on the screen porch LOL .... you might want wear single layered, white colored clothing, and consciously drink plenty of fluids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 84/70 here under full sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what does this mean? what f is LFG - you guys and all these abbreviations jesus Let's f****** not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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