May 2022 Thread

[weatherwiz]

Still some big differences too on rain tonight/tomorrow morning but looks like there will be a narrow west-to-east corridor of heavy rain...where that axis sets up is a bit uncertain. May have to favor south? 

[Cold Miser]

37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

He’s on to us

Indeed. His statement literally sounds like a direct response to this forum. lolz

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Yikes on this weekend. When was the last time we had back-to-back 90° days in May?

I realize not all of us in weather social-media hobbysphere covet passion on the summer/heat side of the preferential equation ( lol...), but seriously, I am not intending to troll by writing this up.

At this point I am willing to agree more so with Metagraphica ( think it was...) re the potential to break records on Saturday.  Prior to this, the synoptics suggestion was there, ..but particular details were not yet emerged out of the coarse trajectory/set-ups that lent as much confidence.  Those appear to have come into better focus rather neatly over the last 24 hours of mode runs - particularly more so in the Euro and GGEM.  More on that below ... and for the general audience ( I used your post as a victim to launch this synoptic overview ... because I have a life that is otherwise so richly and spiritually worth existence, clearly ...)

First, an aside: perhaps by virtue of the fact that May records are more vulnerable, helps? It's bit of philosophy, but one that takes acceptance ( at minimum) that synergistic feed-backs that cause large heat eruptions have become increasingly more common place over the last 10 years, globally.  These occurrence will likely come home at some point - Brian and I have been going back and forth about this aspect, and the idea that we really haven't had a Pacific NW event year.  

Perhaps 'yet,' being apropos. 

Not to alarm either - not saying that's ring the door bell at the end of the week, either.  But, there is now more clearly/likely, going to be synoptic confluence of metrics that can take an ordinary/seasonal hot synopsis, and end up over producing.  It's actually rather elegant.

So ... engineering a historic hot one: 

Observe this annotated series below. Contained are the 48 hour ( from 00z 18 May ) Euro and Canadian (GGEM), 850 mb temperatures - c/o Tropical Tidbits.

That white 'checkering'/migraine aura loss is likely the topographic blackout/grid, but it only partially obscures a very intensely energized kinetic air layer.  That happens because the ambient elevations is so high, the 850 mb is closer to the ground - thus more proficient at conditioning the air mass at this time of year with very high, unabated solar incidence with the ground...etc.

Meanwhile, over the next two days lead, there is a moderate -EPO burst - I'll just show the Euro as the others/ens means concur. This annotated series below is intended to imply the animation/sequence of events ...where the -EPO comes into form. Concomitant with that geopotential height anomaly over Alaska, immediately downstream we see a vortex, a coupled balancing mass, which is in the process of being kicked down stream by the manifold of change taking place - c/o Pivotal Weather.

 

It is interesting to note, a potentially historically hot day on Saturday, really in indirect essence is because of this interaction/circulation mode forcing illustrated above ...some 4000 km or more afar. 

So what happens?   As the trough above, Pacific NW, continues to then carve S-E, while initially W of 100 W longitude, there is then a transitive/indirect coupling height response over the eastern mid latitude continent ... as typically... within 2 days. Shown below is the 500 mb Euro, again, c/o Pivotal  ...nicely showing that moderate 500 mb anomaly ( those height rises over us allow the diurnal expansion from heating room to take place).  Note, this is only 00z Saturday.  The total progressive character of the flow manifold with tends to break this down; so this charts destiny isn't lingering long.  The trough in the Lakes goes on to normalizing in day or so, while the ridge over us, moves into the Atlantic. This allows drills a correcting cool front thru later Sunday...etc.   

 

**Below is the most important aspect that prior to last overnight's model runs, was less than clear  could transpire.  It is the 'timing' of that 850 mb kinetically charge air mass from earlier.  The evolution of the NE Pac into/over western N/A, effectively 'dislodges' that air mass. Once that occurs, it is impelled to ride along the circulation eddy et al...  Here is 00z Saturday, a plume is situated over the OV (left blw).  By 12z, it has migrated to the western New England entry, poised to comes east during the day (right)

As this matures on during the afternoon, nearing 21 z we see what appear to be small +22 C nodes, which are some 3 C warmer modulated over the 12z charts above. That's a crucial distinction there.  Regardless of whatever the 2-meter temperatures the Euro is calculated at that time, that modulation strongly urges that the mixing depth has actually achieved the 850 mb sigma level.  Which means, the adiabats may in fact confidently be drawn from +22 C/ 850 to the surface along a skew-t diagram.  That's pushing 38 C at the surface, btw

 

In conclusion. This has an attempt at a minoring synergy to over produce at least one day of extraordinary heat - by that ..I just mean substantially above climate suggestion for a run-o-the-mill hot day in May.   The 2-meter at this time ( 21Z abv), from the more recent 06 Euro is only 92 or so over Boston metro. However, the shading/cinema of the charts has definitively warmer than that across S NH.  

I suspect the SW flow is a fly in the ointment...  The Euro is probably using the Long Island/Bite waters to screw HFD-BOS and points SE... sort of capping do to some contamination from those southern marine sources.  I'm not sure on that... If the heat bulges significantly ...we could see a local hydrostatic forcing/pressure orient more E and force W wind.  Maybe a convergence axis in there with thunder?  So ...yes there are caveats. But in order to synergize things have to go right, too. Fwiw, the GGEM 2-meter/hover product at Pivotal floats a 97 or so Metro west to BED/NE Mass

 

 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Also - I did not include the GFS in that 00z "hot take" on Saturday.   It seems to be inconsitently placing the eject 850 mb air layer in space and time over the last several runs.  It's also been inconsistent with the 500 mb 'idiosyncrasies' with the orientation/morphology of the non-hydrostatic heights...It just wants to ablate and rasp the latitude of the warm potential at least excuse, which I am not sure given the large scale -EPO pulse and down stream coupled vortex I outlined, that the GFS has the right idea.

That said, it could verify... and miss the region south - in which case the standard SW flow/climate hot day results.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also - I did not include the GFS in that 00z "hot take" on Saturday.   It seems to be inconsitently placing the eject 850 mb air layer in space and time over the last several runs.  It's also been inconsistent with the 500 mb 'idiosyncrasies' with the orientation/morphology of the non-hydrostatic heights...It just wants to ablate and rasp the latitude of the warm potential at least excuse, which I am not sure given the large scale -EPO pulse and down stream coupled vortex I outlined, that the GFS has the right idea.

That said, it could verify... and miss the region south - in which case the standard SW flow/climate hot day results.

Take a look at the difference in some of the model output..

 

 

[dendrite]

Models are hotter on Sunday for the Merrimack River Valley...SW flow downsloping off the high terrain and mixed out BL with dews down into the 50s.

[weatherwiz]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize not all of us in weather social-media hobbysphere covet passion on the summer/heat side of the preferential equation ( lol...), but seriously, I am not intending to troll by writing this up.

At this point I am willing to agree more so with Metagraphica ( think it was...) re the potential to break records on Saturday.  Prior to this, the synoptics suggestion was there, ..but particular details were not yet emerged out of the coarse trajectory/set-ups that lent as much confidence.  Those appear to have come into better focus rather neatly over the last 24 hours of mode runs - particularly more so in the Euro and GGEM.  More on that below ... and for the general audience ( I used your post as a victim to launch this synoptic overview ... because I have a life that is otherwise so richly and spiritually worth existence, clearly ...)

First, an aside: perhaps by virtue of the fact that May records are more vulnerable, helps? It's bit of philosophy, but one that takes acceptance ( at minimum) that synergistic feed-backs that cause large heat eruptions have become increasingly more common place over the last 10 years, globally.  These occurrence will likely come home at some point - Brian and I have been going back and forth about this aspect, and the idea that we really haven't had a Pacific NW event year.  

Perhaps 'yet,' being apropos. 

Not to alarm either - not saying that's ring the door bell at the end of the week, either.  But, there is now more clearly/likely, going to be synoptic confluence of metrics that can take an ordinary/seasonal hot synopsis, and end up over producing.  It's actually rather elegant.

So ... engineering a historic hot one: 

Observe this annotated series below. Contained are the 48 hour ( from 00z 18 May ) Euro and Canadian (GGEM), 850 mb temperatures - c/o Tropical Tidbits.

That white 'checkering'/migraine aura loss is likely the topographic blackout/grid, but it only partially obscures a very intensely energized kinetic air layer.  That happens because the ambient elevations is so high, the 850 mb is closer to the ground - thus more proficient at conditioning the air mass at this time of year with very high, unabated solar incidence with the ground...etc.

Meanwhile, over the next two days lead, there is a moderate -EPO burst - I'll just show the Euro as the others/ens means concur. This annotated series below is intended to imply the animation/sequence of events ...where the -EPO comes into form. Concomitant with that geopotential height anomaly over Alaska, immediately downstream we see a vortex, a coupled balancing mass, which is in the process of being kicked down stream by the manifold of change taking place - c/o Pivotal Weather.

 

It is interesting to note, a potentially historically hot day on Saturday, really in indirect essence is because of this interaction/circulation mode forcing illustrated above ...some 4000 km or more afar. 

So what happens?   As the trough above, Pacific NW, continues to then carve S-E, while initially W of 100 W longitude, there is then a transitive/indirect coupling height response over the eastern mid latitude continent ... as typically... within 2 day. Shown below is the 500 mb Euro, again, c/o Pivotal  ...nicely showing that moderate 500 mb anomaly ( those height rises over us allow the diurnal expansion from heating room to take place).  Note, this is only 00z Saturday.  The total progressive character of the flow manifold with tends to break this down; so this charts destiny isn't lingering long.  The trough in the Lakes goes on to normalizing in day or so, while the ridge over us, moves into the Atlantic. This allows drills a correcting cool front thru later Sunday...etc.   

 

**Below is the most important aspect that prior to last overnight's model runs, was less than likely would be transpire.  It is the 'timing' of that 850 mb kinetically charge air mass from earlier.  The evolution of the NE Pac into/over western N/A, effectively 'dislodges' that air mass. Once that occurs, it is impelled to ride along the circulation eddy et al...  Here is 00z Saturday, a plume is situated over the OV. 

As this matures on during the afternoon, nearing 21 z we see what appear to be small +22 C nodes, which are some 3 C warmer modulated over the 12z charts above. That's crucial distinction there.  Regardless of whatever the 2-meter temperatures the Euro is calculated at that time, that modulation strongly urges that the mixing depth has actually achieved the 850 mb sigma level.  Which means, the adiabats may in fact confidently be drawn from +22 C/ 850 to the surface along a skew-t diagram.  That's pushing 38 C at the surface, btw

 

In conclusion... This has an attempt at a minoring synergy to over produce at least one day of extraordinary heat - by that ..I just mean substantially above climate suggestion for a run-o-the-mill hot day in May.   The 2-meter at this time ( 21Z abv), from the more recent 06 Euro is only 92 or so over Boston metro. However, the shading/cinema of the charts has definitively warmer than that across S NH.  

I suspect the SW flow is a fly in the ointment...  The Euro is probably using the Long Island/Bite waters to screw HFD-BOS and points SE... sort of capping do to some contamination from those southern marine sources.  I'm not sure on that... If the heat bulges significantly ...we could see a local hydrostatic forcing/pressure orient more E and force W wind.  Maybe a convergence axis in there with thunder?  So ...yes there are caveats. But in order to synergize things have to go right, too. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is an excellent post and provides a great visual for explaining such scenarios. You're right...alot of people probably don't have passion (or even care) for these type of events...but the meteorology involved is extremely fascinating. What I bolded I think I also kinda outlined with the bufkit sounding for BDL Saturday. The GFS indicates a deeply mixed airmass across the interior Saturday with a very evident EML moving overhead during the day. Below the EML we're looking at a lapse rate (sfc to the base of the EML) closing in on 10 C/KM. I think having the presence of an EML here is HUGE in terms of eliciting this potential. This will limit clouds and allow for maximum mixing/heating. Now...what's always a challenge is the GFS has a tendency to overmix while the NAM has a tendency to undermix, however, I tend to find in scenarios where you have 'sensible' weather the GFS is much more accurate. 

And you hit the nail on the head in the final sentence...ultimately low-level and surface wind flow component is going to play a significant role. A trajectory which is more WSW vs. SW could be the difference in 5-7F across locations where marine flow tends to be an influence. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Models are hotter on Sunday for the Merrimack River Valley...SW flow downsloping off the high terrain and mixed out BL with dews down into the 50s.

Yeah this is a good take, Brian - if then getting down into 'local studies' scaling, there are little 'climate pockets' that will perform like that where circumstantial - like the d-slope this, or the drying sending the T side of 'T/TD' soaring...etc.

 

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Take a look at the difference in some of the model output..

 

 

Thanks for these...

The Euro, we can see the southern marine there pretty clearly/as suspected yes.  It's not as 'visible' but it probably keeps the the temps to 95 or < even as far N as southern NH ... certainly possible.

Contrasting, the GFS has less of that. It appears to maximize a big heat result, despite the core of the hottest 850 mb plume escaping S of SNE ...interesting.  Looking at the synoptics more closely, indeed it has more westerly orientation with the flow.  Not hugely... some 20 deg of dial angle but that's probably enough to suppress the contamination - guessin'

What are the DPs in the RGEM vs the 12KM NAM?   That NAM ...I wonder if that's a bloated theta-e artifact.  84... okay haha

[Typhoon Tip]

I mean... if the Euro wind field were to rotate/correct W ...more in line with a GFS trajectory, whilst keeping/conserving its other modeled metrics/verify ... yeah, I wouldn't have problem going 101 in the parking lot of the Burlington Mass/Mall, or sitting at an eternal red light on Rt 9 out in Natick... I mean with 22C mixing from Venus like that after several hours of full torch sun, the "real" ensuing 2-meter will ping that high.

Clouds? Yup.. when we get into the post 95 VIP range, ... the clothes have to be clean.

[dendrite]

All-time May records here.

GFS

EC

ICON

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch!!

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is an excellent post and provides a great visual for explaining such scenarios. You're right...alot of people probably don't have passion (or even care) for these type of events...but the meteorology involved is extremely fascinating. What I bolded I think I also kinda outlined with the bufkit sounding for BDL Saturday. The GFS indicates a deeply mixed airmass across the interior Saturday with a very evident EML moving overhead during the day. Below the EML we're looking at a lapse rate (sfc to the base of the EML) closing in on 10 C/KM. I think having the presence of an EML here is HUGE in terms of eliciting this potential. This will limit clouds and allow for maximum mixing/heating. Now...what's always a challenge is the GFS has a tendency to overmix while the NAM has a tendency to undermix, however, I tend to find in scenarios where you have 'sensible' weather the GFS is much more accurate. 

And you hit the nail on the head in the final sentence...ultimately low-level and surface wind flow component is going to play a significant role. A trajectory which is more WSW vs. SW could be the difference in 5-7F across locations where marine flow tends to be an influence. 

Is that a personal observation?  Not busting nuts ... curious if that's documented.  I did not know that.   I was inclined to think it was just different moisture presence in the column in most cases.  Which ...yeah, conceptually that can be vertical mixing related.   But I was thinking that way because I remember the 2018 version of the oper. GFS's handling of that March Nor'easter, where it had that 39/32 column, at 98% RH, thru 3.00" of QPF... We've discussed ad nauseam -.  So, we are a couple of upgrade releases/great grandson years late, and probably(hopefully) that sort of stuff has been un-mucked.  I just sort of assumed there's a recessive trait there nonetheless-

But yeah...I guess it could just be mixing too.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

All-time May records here.

GFS

 

EC

 

ICON

 

It's funny you tossed the ICON into that comparison ... I don't really use that model - I gave it chance over the last two seasons and wasn't ultimately impressed enough to use it outside of a day...day and half. To many critical albeit only seemingly too small to matter reasons to ruin a clad forecast for me to bother - lol.  

That said, I do eye-candy it from time to time out of morbid diabetic practice ... it's been pretty sweet on the Saturday heat for week actually.  

[Torch Tiger]

Like a weekend snow event, there is plenty of excitement in the air.  Everyone's talking about  the big heat.  Hopefully we can shatter records!

[Chrisrotary12]

Will it ever stop being windy? For the last month I haven't been able to light the fire pit (town calls and tells us no). Finally we get some rain and the town stops calling, but its windy as heck. lol

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that a personal observation?  Not busting nuts ... curious if that's documented.  I did not know that.   I was inclined to think it was just different moisture presence in the column in most cases.  Which ...yeah, conceptually that can be vertical mixing related.   But I was thinking that way because I remember the 2018 version of the oper. GFS's handling of that March Nor'easter, where it had that 39/32 column, at 98% RH, thru 3.00" of QPF... We've discussed ad nauseam -.  So, we are a couple of upgrade releases/great grandson years late, and probably(hopefully) that sort of stuff has been un-mucked.  I just sort of assumed there's a recessive trait there nonetheless-

But yeah...I guess it could just be mixing too.

 

It's really more of a personal observation. I have done some searching to see if there was any documentation on this or any published papers but I never really found anything. But if you were to look at bufkit sounding every day (either for a particular location or a bunch of locations) and compare the NAM/GFS you'll almost always see the GFS show stronger/deeper mixing. I think another example of this can be MOS...how many times do you really see the NAM spit out higher temperatures than the GFS? The only times it seems the NAM has a much better handle is when you have a front nearby, something to really inhibit mixing, or if the wind flow makes sense (for example, we all know what a SE wind can do do temps here in the summer...the NAM may handle that better than GFS). 

I've never been able to come up with a sound reasoning or basis for this though. My guess is it has to do with the equations related to boundary layer depth/mixing but my math skills are too poor to really dig deeper into that. 

I first started this though when partaking in the Weather Challenge. One year the location was somewhere down in Alabama. It was the first day of the challenge too. It was a tough forecast b/c clouds were involved with potential for mixing. I think the NAM MOS was a high in the mid 70's with the GFS upper 70's or maybe 81. When I was doing mixing heights via bufkit I think I was getting lower 80's on NAM and mid 80's on GFS. I ended up going 86 for a forecast high (which was 7-8F above the national consensus)...their high ended up being 86  Kept me in first for the first week then I dropped off b/c of botched precip. forecasts week 2.

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch!!

One of the rare times that phrase is being used correctly by you. Lol

Mega torch for sure

[Chrisrotary12]

The temperature forecasts for Saturday of 95-100 seem a bit high right? 850 mb temps are 18-20 C. Don't we want that closer to 22-23C?

[powderfreak]

Be special if parts of CNE/SNE could set some all-time May records after just two years ago several NNE stations set all-time May records.

Coincidence? Probably not.  

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Like a weekend snow event, there is plenty of excitement in the air.  Everyone's talking about  the big heat.  Hopefully we can shatter records!

Lol -  ...oh K. 

Obviously the thumb in the rib there is that "some" people are talking about it, and some people might find it exciting.  

But you're right for pure meteorological curiosity, it is an aspect for discussion.  Testing boundaries in Nature is part of the science of nature - that's really why-for the specter of any kind of event, however subtle or gross, is sought.  'What can happen' - probably built right into our instinctual wiring ( that blah blah internal motivator, that humans don't believe they posses - pure instinct). 

You know...we creatures have evolved curiosity of such things, because evolution chose our intellects to be our claws and teeth in the greater Darwinian sense?  

Intellect doesn't do much good without curiosity, because the latter ... puts the intelligence into the intellect.  Pretty straight forward, and perhaps an easy intuitive leap to understand, this is what/why draws us to dramatic weather events.  For physicists... finding the 'god particle' ... For artists, realizing the imagery in the mind, through their medium, is part of that same venture.  etc...

I don't mean to lecture you bro - you didn't ask haha... Just made me think about this subject again is all.  

For the record, the meteorology/leading therein is fascinating to me...  I don't personally care to be 'stuck' in traffic with a failing AC in 95 F temperatures under a rotisserie lamp sun.  I'm intelligent - not crazy.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The temperature forecasts for Saturday of 95-100 seem a bit high right? 850 mb temps are 18-20 C. Don't we want that closer to 22-23C?

I thought it was 22 C in the Euro and GGEM.  I realize that post is tl;dr for some but I annotated that chart fwiw -

Having said that, I think that's 22 C... the color pallets a bit busy to be absolutely certain.  Maybe there is a hard print of the 850 temps - I think I've seen Brian source that.  If it's just 20C that factorable - sure.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

The temperature forecasts for Saturday of 95-100 seem a bit high right? 850 mb temps are 18-20 C. Don't we want that closer to 22-23C?

I mean we've seen this before recently where models overdo the BL mixing and dews stay up higher than progged and so thermodynamically we don't meet the expected warming potential. But it's early in the season, we've been dry, and the evapotranspiration is just beginning. If the mixing pans out there's potential there for 17-18C on top of the 850s.

[dendrite]

The EC has 21C over S NH 18z Sun. Goofus is 21C over much of S NH and E MA.

[dendrite]

I think I agree though and that I'd hedge a little cooler at 2m and dewier. Maybe 95/65s instead of 98/58s. But it's going to be a scorcher of a weekend regardless. We're just nitpicking how we get to the oppressiveness.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think I agree though and that I'd hedge a little cooler at 2m and dewier. Maybe 95/65s instead of 98/58s. But it's going to be a scorcher of a weekend regardless. We're just nitpicking how we get to the oppressiveness.

Ideally we want 98/65+ even moreso...98/70's

[Cyclone-68]

As Wiz might say get an EML in here while we are roasting 

[weathafella]

It always starts with coolness a few days out when it occurs in May.   

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah... in terms of physical impact/'sensible' weather...  99/59 vs 95/65 ...  that's why-for the invention of the HI calculation.

Which,ha, has anyone every seen the actual equation for the apparent temperatures?   Holy brain bomb of a headache that thing is. It's got estimates built into it too, or at least the version I saw back in the '90s. 

But for those interested in breaking record temperatures the HI isn't part of that - or maybe there is historic 'HI's ? I dunno -

Does anyone know what the daily is for Saturday 21 May?   what are the all-times?   I suppose I could find those but if anyone cares to -

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... in terms of physical impact/'sensible' weather...  99/59 vs 95/65 ...  that's why the invented the HI calculation.

Which,ha, has anyone every seen the actual equation for apparent temperatures?   Holy brain bomb of a headache the thing is. It's got estimates built into too, or at least the version I saw back in the '90s. 

But for those interested in breaking record temperatures the HI isn't part of that - or maybe there is historic 'HI's ? I dunno -

Does anyone know what the daily is for Saturday 21 May?   what's are the all-times?   I suppose I could find those but if anyone cares to -

Dew points during max heating 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... in terms of physical impact/'sensible' weather...  99/59 vs 95/65 ...  that's why-for the invention of the HI calculation.

Which,ha, has anyone every seen the actual equation for the apparent temperatures?   Holy brain bomb of a headache that thing is. It's got estimates built into it too, or at least the version I saw back in the '90s. 

But for those interested in breaking record temperatures the HI isn't part of that - or maybe there is historic 'HI's ? I dunno -

Does anyone know what the daily is for Saturday 21 May?   what are the all-times?   I suppose I could find those but if anyone cares to -

HI is virtually only important to determine how many people will drop like flies. 

I know BDL's daily record high for Saturday is 93. All time May record is 99 which has been achieved twice.